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Clark - Liberals, Horgan - NDP, familiarity, Clark performance, Kinder Morgan, Enbridge - Gateway, LNG - Site C BC Hydro -economic influence
  May 08, 2014

Both the BC Liberal government and BC New Democrat Opposition are down slightly in this RSR ROBBINS Survey. The Margin of Error and the tendency of 3rd and 4th place party's to perform better in surveys between elections may account for this.
Premier Christy Clark is holding the BC Liberal party at reasonable levels. BC Liberal numbers continue to be soft on Vancouver Island (25%), are holding in the lower mainland of the province (37%), solid in the Fraser Valley (46%), holding well in the Southern Interior (43%), and very well in the north of the province (47%).
The BC New Democrats hold solid support on Vancouver Island (45%), (although the BC Greens remain worrisome in Greater Victoria and Saanich (23%)). The NDP holds well in the lower mainland region (39%), remain a distant second behind the BC Liberals in the Fraser Valley (30%) in the Southern Interior (30%) and in the northern region of the province (30%).
Christy Clark's BC Liberals still dominate the provincial regions from the Fraser Valley to the north and are not threatened by the New Democrats in any way in these areas.
Questions 2 and 4 on 'leader' familiarity with British Columbians' pose some interesting considerations. Clearly Christy Clark is very familiar among BC voters (2013) while John Horgan is only moderately well known. Who gains the better advantage from this?
We believe that as Mr. Horgan's familiarity with BC voters increases, which it is bound to do, and if his optics with British Columbians are more positive as this occurs, then overall support for leader and party should improve as a consequence.
Premier Clark needs to keep an eye at all times on the BC Conservatives to ensure that party doesn't actually gain any traction. An alternative centre right that runs candidates in all ridings will be trouble. Media needs to keep close eye on riding development with erstwhile political parties. In the case of the BC Conservatives, if you are charging a prohibitive rate of thousands of dollars to run for leader and then cannot raise enough to raise a bona fide party then any claims in public opinion should rightly be viewed with skepticism.
With a federal general election coming in the next year in Canada, the federal Liberals are excited about the possibility of returning to government under leader Justin Trudeau, including rising fortunes potentially in British Columbia. As a consequence, it is possible that Christy Clark could find herself in an awkward position politically over the next year as Mr. Trudeau eyes reform Liberals, provincial New Democrats, progressive conservatives and environmentalists to his party support. Let's not forget that Mr. Trudeau by vocation is a school teacher ---.
If Ms. Clark is perceived to be too close to Mr. Harper it might turn her with Mr. Trudeau particularly in Vancouver and the lower mainland region where Conservative support may be floundering somewhat. If Justin Trudeau shows a tendency toward ignoring Christy Clark as election time ramps up because he perceives her as a drag on his rising public support this could prove problematic for her as the press will surely comment. Christy Clark was a strong supporter of former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin.
On the NDP side, they need to forge a better visual relationship with their federal counterparts as the unity among New Democrats is clearer than with the BC Liberals. Federal leader Thomas Mulcair is coming to Vancouver, how will the support from provincial New Democrats be seen?
Support for pipelines in the province is not growing - it flounders in the mid to high thirties with slightly higher support for Kinder Morgan (lower mainland) than Enbridge (northern BC).
The numbers against pipelines are consistently (20%) higher than the numbers in support.
Support for LNG and Site C Hydro dams is about equal and above (40%) however, opposition is higher for LNG than Site C Hydro.
Most British Columbian's are of the opinion that the condition of the U.S. economy is the greatest influence on our provincial economy, followed by federal policies, provincial policies, and last (and apparently least) entrepreneurship in B.C.
Additional facts from this survey:
(96%) of BC Liberal supporters are familiar with Christy Clark while only (68.5%) of BC NDP supporters are familiar with John Horgan.
(67%) of BC Conservative supporters also support the construction of the Site C dam, (50%) of BC NDP support its construction, while (38%) of BC Liberals do, (19%) of BC Greens, and (42%) of Undecided.
(24%) of Vancouver Island respondents support Enbridge - Northern Gateway pipeline proposal, as do (34.5%) of lower mainland residents, (40%) of Fraser Valley respondents and (44%) of southern interior and northern BC respondents.
(31%) of Vancouver Island respondents support the Kinder Morgan pipeline, while (40%) of lower mainland respondents do, while (47%) of southern interior and northern BC respondents support it.
(32%) of Vancouver Island respondents, (38%) of lower mainland respondents, (44%) of Fraser Valley respondents and (42%) of southern interior and northern BC respondents support LNG.
(40.5%) of Vancouver Island residents, (40%) of lower mainland residents, (44%) of Fraser Valley respondents and (44%) of north and interior respondents support the construction of the Site C Hydro dam.
This is an RSR ROBBINS Survey of 2,254 voters from the British Columbia provincial election of May 2013 contacted over two calling periods including within the time line of April 18, 2014 until May 3, 2014.
The margin of error based on the total number over two weeks is 2% plus or minus 19/20 and 95% confidence. The median average difference from week one to week two for each response over every question is (3.5%).

Question #1
Which B.C. party do you currently support from the following choices offered? (percentage to 100%)
BC Liberals    38 %
BC NDP    38 %
BC Greens    15 %
BC Conservatives    7 %
Other/Independent    2.5 %
Undecided    12 %
Question #2
Are you familiar with who Christy Clark is?
Yes    88.5 %
No    9 %
Question #3
How would you rate Premier Christy Clark's job performance so far?
Good    25 %
Fair    18 %
Poor    44 %
Undecided    13 %
Question #4
Are you familiar with who John Horgan is?
Yes    47 %
No    50 %
Question #5
Do you support the new construction of the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline in order to transport Alberta oil through the northern region of British Columbia to be shipped through BC's local waters to markets abroad with possible risks of spill?
Yes    35 %
No    50 %
Undecided    15 %
Question #6
Do you support the extraction of the Site C BC Hydro dam which may change natural habitat regions in northern British Columbia
Yes    43 %
No    36 %
Question #7
From the following response choices which best reflects who or what you believe has the greatest influence on BC's economy?
Federal Government economic policy    30 %
Provincial Government economic policy    20 %
The condition of the United States economy    42 %
Entrepreneurship in BC    5 %

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