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RSR ROBBINS poll of Canadians asks: Are Justin Trudeau Liberals heading to majority, while Stephen Harper Conservatives head to disaster?
  Oct 08, 2014

Question #1
Which leader and political party do you currently support in Canada?
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    40 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    27 %
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    25 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    4.5 %
Other    3.5 %
Undecided/Other    4 %
Question #2
Which leader makes you most comfortable that your vote has meaning?
Justin Trudeau    41 %
Tom Mulcair    22.5 %
Stephen Harper    19.5 %
Question #3
In your opinion is the earth dying?
Yes    56 %
No    42 %
Question #4
Are you religious or do you believe in God?
Yes    39 %
No    45 %
Commentary
Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada is heading into the final quarter of the race for control of Parliament with a comfortable lead over Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada. Other polls have confirmed this lead by lengths, this RSR poll suggests the lead is by furlongs.
Stephen Harper's Conservative Party of Canada is stalling at a worrisome (27%) in popular support and is in a virtual tie with Tom Mulcair and the New Democratic Party (25%).
Our RSR Q#2 provides a different spin on the trust issue with very interesting results. As leader Justin Trudeau has (41.5%) support on the basis that respondents are comfortable that their vote “has meaning”, Tom Mulcair is (21.5%) and Prime Minister Stephen Harper is (19.5%). On a decided basis nearly one in two Canadians believe that Justin Trudeau provides them comfort that their vote has meaning.
Based on the outcome of Q#1 and Q#2 a number of questions are provoked: Are Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party of Canada headed for a major upset and super majority government in the next year, and if this possibility has merit – what are his plans to harness the hopes of Canadians and how is he going to translate these hopes into public policy initiatives? Second, are Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party of Canada headed for possible electoral wipe out in a manner similar to Michael Ignatieff and his version of the Liberal Party of Canada in the 2011 federal general election?
The federal Liberals attract the following support by Province: BC (33%), Alberta (32%), Saskatchewan (30%), Manitoba (35%), Ontario (46%), Quebec (37%), New Brunswick (30%) Nova Scotia (35%), Prince Edward Island (42%) Newfoundland and Labrador (40%).
Federal Conservatives attract support as follows: BC (29%), Alberta (45%), Saskatchewan (46%), Manitoba (34%), Ontario (26%), Quebec (16%), New Brunswick (32%), Nova Scotia (28%), Prince Edward Island (24%), Newfoundland and Labrador (24%).
Federal New Democrats attract support as follows: BC (31%), Alberta (16%), Saskatchewan (21%), Manitoba (29%), Ontario (23%), Quebec (26%), New Brunswick (31%), Nova Scotia (33%), Prince Edward Island (30%), Newfoundland and Labrador (31%).
Federal Green support is as follows: BC (8%), Alberta (4%), Saskatchewan (3%), Manitoba (4.5%), Ontario (5%), Quebec (5%), New Brunswick (3%), Nova Scotia (4%), Prince Edward Island (4%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (2%).
The Bloc Quebecois a federal party operating in Quebec – is (3%) nationally.
On our International question – Is the earth dying(?), the provincial results are as follows: Yes-BC (54%), Alberta (50%), Saskatchewan (48%), Manitoba (57%), Ontario (54%), Quebec (64%), New Brunswick (41%), Nova Scotia (53%), Newfoundland and Labrador (49%).
On our International question – Are you religious or do you believe in God(?) the provincial results are as follows: Yes- BC (38%), Alberta (41%), Saskatchewan (43%), Ontario (42%), Quebec (35%), New Brunswick (44%), Nova Scotia (42%), Newfoundland and Labrador (44%).
Methodology- This is an RSR ROBBINS poll of 1,440 Canadians produced between August 12-26, 2014. The Margin of Error is 2.56% 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence.

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