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RSR ROBBINS -survey of Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador
  Oct 26, 2014

Question #1
Which of the following Canadian leaders and party do you currently support?
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    43.31 %
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    29.55 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    18.61 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    3.52 %
Mario Beaulieu and Bloc Quebecois    5.14 %
Commentary
Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada are taking off with public support from Ontario east through the Atlantic Provinces. The party has nearly doubled its support in seat populous Ontario, and nearly tripled its support in seat rich Quebec since the last Canadian federal election May 2, 2014. Support in the Atlantic Provinces has increase by (20%) or more since then as well.
Tom Mulcair and the New Democratic Party of Canada are off slightly from 2011 electoral totals, but are holding steady off slightly in Ontario and Quebec. New Democrat numbers have improved in the Atlantic Provinces but are off somewhat in Newfoundland and Labrador owing the sweeping popularity of the Trudeau Liberals.
Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada are losing support, the current ship of state is taking on water to an extent it may not recover from -- in Ontario and eastward.
With Elizabeth May and the federal Green Party of Canada adding little to the federal contest what is clear and may stand as Stephen Harper's greatest legacy in this part of the country is that the Bloc Quebecois, now being led by Mario Beaulieu is beginning to fade in terms of public support and could be gone completely by the end of next election—taking Quebec independence off the table – likely for good.
Oh Canada indeed.
The Conservative government of Canada has seen its support plummet among Ontario voters from 44% to (28%), and Quebec support from 16% to (11%). The slow death of the Conservatives in Quebec also brings the collateral expiration of the Bloc Quebecois, with voters in Canada's 2nd largest province and original partner apparently happy to support old Liberal friends and New Democrats no long simply fair weather acquaintances.
Atlantic Provinces reveal an erosion in support for the Conservative government remaining respectful in New Brunswick, but falling dramatically in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador.
Tom Mulcair is nearly even from May 2011 in Ontario but off (20%) from 2011 electoral totals in Quebec. The New Democrats are up slightly in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and off slightly in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The world appears golden for Golden Boy Justin Trudeau whose numbers in Ontario rival those of other Liberals at the apex of their game including his father, former Canadian Prime Ministers Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien.
The massive turnaround in support for the federal Liberals in Quebec is linked in part to the dismissal of Conservatives and Bloc in that country, and to the confidence in the provincial Liberal label, as well as the excitement and anticipation of Trudeau II.
Increases for Trudeau's Liberals in the Atlantic Provinces reflect the certainty with which Canadians are approaching the relationship with the likely new leader of original Canada.
This RSR ROBBINS survey of voters from the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador includes telephone interviews of 1,440 persons from those provinces between October 20th and 25th, 2014. Best efforts were made to ensure that number of respondents from each province reflected population and where this did not occur adjustments were made. Best efforts were made to ensure that number of respondents reflected gender within that population and where this did not occur adjustments were made. The margin of error of this RSR ROBBINS survey is 2.5% plus or minus @ 95% confidence.

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