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RSR ROBBINS -Trudeau Liberals (39%), Mulcair New Democrats (28%), Harper Conservatives (28%) - more than one third of Canadians see fed government as 'evil' - (23%) say gov is transparent-accountable and more than half of decided resp. want early election
Montreal, Canada  Nov 24, 2014

Question #1
Which of the following federal leaders and party do you support? (shown as 100%)
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    39 %
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    28 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    28 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    3 %
Mario Beaulieu and Bloc Quebecois Party of Canada    2.5 %
Undecided    9 %
Question #2
In this question we offer two words that can be described either as adjectives or nouns. The words are good and evil. Evil is intended to mean dishonourable, corrupt and wicked. Good is intended to mean healthy sound, having integrity. In your opinion is the federal government ‘more good’ or ‘more evil’?
More good    42 %
More evil    37 %
Undecided    17 %
Cannot or will not answer    13 %
Question #3
When you consider issues relating to governance do you normally make decisions relating more to your personal values or more to the events occurring at the time you make a decision?
More to personal values    42 %
More to events at the time    15 %
About equal measure of both personal values and events at the time    36 %
Undecided cannot answer    7 %
Question #4
On a scale of 10% through 100% with 10% the lowest and 100% the highest score, how would rate transparency and accountability of the federal government based on your personal experience, the experience of others close to you, or your general perception.
23    23 %
Question #5
Rumours have speculated that a federal election could be held in the next few months rather than next October 2015 the scheduled time. Would you support an earlier election, say in early spring 2015?
Yes    46 %
No    38 %
Undecided    14 %
Commentary
Populations: Ontario: 13.6 million; Quebec: 8.25 million; BC: 4.6 million; Alberta: 4 million; Saskatchewan: 1 million; Manitoba: 1.3 million; Nova Scotia: 950,000; New Brunswick: 750,000; Newfoundland and Labrador 500,000; Prince Edward Island 150,000
Stephen Harper and Conservatives: BC (32%); Alberta (48%); Saskatchewan (46%); Manitoba (40%); Ontario (27%); Quebec (15%); New Brunswick (36%); Nova Scotia (30%), Prince Edward Island (21%); Newfoundland and Labrador (24%).
Justin Trudeau and Liberals: BC (32%); Alberta (28%); Saskatchewan (27%); Manitoba (28%); Ontario (46%); Quebec (34%); New Brunswick (30%); Nova Scotia (32%); Prince Edward Island (50%); Newfoundland and Labrador (50%).
Tom Mulcair and NDP: BC (30%); Alberta (20%); Saskatchewan (22%); Manitoba (28%); Ontario (23%); Quebec (38%); New Brunswick (31%); Nova Scotia (34%); Prince Edward Island (23%); Newfoundland and Labrador (24%).
Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party of Canada continues to boast a double digit lead in public opinion in Canada, a lead which his party has held (give or take) for at least one year now. The federal Liberal Party is back and they are back big time with an equal percentage of support to what the Conservative Party achieved in the last federal election (2011). The country is shifting to the left in rejection of the Conservative government.
Tom Mulcair’s New Democrats are defying the zero sum logic usually associated with Liberals and New Democrats (an increase in Liberal support must mean a loss in New Democrat support). Their support remains around (28%) a few point shy of their 2011 federal general election totals under the late Jack Layton.
Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are facing an uncertain future. Support for the government has hovered around (30%) for some time now; however there are a number of polls evidencing national support at under (30%), and is similar to support received by the Reform Party of Canada under Stockwell Day on the way up to government status. What goes up must come down- an axiom which applies to the Conservative Party of Canada currently with majority government out of the question and winning minority government more doubtful as every week passes.
The Liberal Party of Canada, once again, is revealing it is Canada’s natural governing party, after nearly a decade in the political ‘sin bin’. The party’s numbers in Ontario are formidable and they are set to challenge the New Democrats for supremacy in Quebec. The Liberals are also strong in Atlantic Canada and improving in the western provinces, where a breakthrough here above (35%) would surely bring them super majority status in the Canadian House of Commons.
The New Democratic Party of Canada remains dependent on the ‘big score’ Jack Layton brought them (primarily from Quebec) in 2011, but leader Tom Mulcair to his credit, is maintaining a (somewhat desperate) grip on support in that province. If the New Democrats give way to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in Quebec, the Canadian House of Commons will become a sea of crimson following the next federal general election.
The Conservative Party of Canada is weary, Quebec sent them packing long ago and now Ontario it delivering the one finger salutes as well. The Conservatives hold the western provinces, are softer in support in British Columbia. The Conservatives are very vulnerable at this time and can ill afford any scandal lest they find themselves on the outside looking in at a Liberal v New Democrat fight for Parliament.
Nearly (49%) of New Democrats and (32%) of Conservatives see government as ‘more evil’. Anecdote suggests that the New Democrats perceive government in this way because of Stephen Harper’s Conservative government, while Conservatives blame the bureaucracy. Only (24%) of Liberals see government as ‘more evil’ (possibly because they now expect they will be the government following the next federal general election). A majority of Greens and Bloc Quebecois also see government as ‘evil’, however only (32%) of Undecided see government as ‘more evil’.
On the other hand, (34%) of New Democrats see government as ‘more good’, as do (47%) of Conservatives, and (41%) of Liberals. (29%) of Undecided see government as ‘more good’
Both Liberal Party and New Democrat Party supporters are inclined to respond similarly to the question 3: “When you consider issues relating to governance do you normally make decisions relating more to your personal values or more to the events occurring at the time you make a decision?” Of those respondents who consider issues ‘at the time’ the majority of these are Conservatives and Greens.
(72%) of Conservatives see government as transparent and accountable. The Opposition parties disagree in near unison with only (19%) of New Democrats and (12%) of Liberals believing that government is transparent and accountable. This final outcome of (23%) strongly suggests a crisis of confidence in government’s ability to be straight with Canadians (and possibly itself).
(62%) of Liberal Party supporters want an earlier general federal election suggested as early spring 2015. Conservative supporters are split on the question, while just more than one third of New Democrats want an earlier election. It is now open for Justin Trudeau to openly call for one – to see if Mr. Harper will oblige, in much the same manner that Stockwell Day challenged Jean Chretien – at the turn of the century.
This is an RSR ROBBINS poll of 1,440 Canadians having average age of 46 years (23% undisclosed) and adjusted per province on the basis of gender (weighting principles). This poll has a margin of error of 2.58% 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. The Liberal Party has an 8% to 18% lead over the Conservatives and New Democrats with a 100% likelihood of a lead. This RSR ROBBINS land line telephone poll was conducted between November 15-22, 2014.

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