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RSR ROBBINS - Donald Trump versus Jeb Bush - The Decision is in.
You want it - You got it  Aug 05, 2015

Question #1
Which of these following Republican candidates do you currently support if you had to choose between these two at this time?
Jeb Bush    39 %
Donald Trump    33 %
Neither of these two candidates    21 %
Undecided/Don't know    7.5 %
Commentary
An RSR ROBBINS survey of American citizens who voted for the Republican Party in the most recent presidential election in 2012. We interviewed 5,512 respondents throughout the United States. (Please see remarks in methodology).
Ethnic support for the two respondent choices Donald Trump and Jeb Bush (both well known names to Republican respondents (“political commodities”) is as follows (presented to 100% total and based on actual demographics of the United States):
Caucasian voters: Jeb Bush (+ 2%); African American voters: Donald Trump (+ 5%); Hispanic/Latino voters: Jeb Bush (+9%); Asian voters: Donald Trump (+1%).
Based on Caucasian respondents who selected either Donald Trump or Jeb Bush, former Governor Bush attracts more male and female respondents but only marginally. Among African Americans a decided (72%) of African American women support Donald Trump while nearly (60%) of decided African American men support him. Nearly 60% of (decided) Asian American women support Donald Trump and over 50% of (decided) Asian men support him over Jeb Bush.
The bad news for Donald Trump is the Hispanic/Latino respondents do not appear to “love him” as he has claimed. African American women “love him”, that is for sure, however only (22%) of decided Latino women support him while less than (20%) of Latino men support him. (Donald Trump needs an Oprah Winfrey special interview).
Democratic President Obama has made a presidential meal of ethnic support with a huge majority of African American voters moving him into the White House and then keeping him there a second term. Latinos also voted Barack Obama helping President Obama take the American vote to the top of the political World.
This RSR ROBBINS survey is worthwhile for a number of reasons. First we clarify and sort a confused and crowded field of candidates giving the race some early clarity. Second, we have two Republican candidates in this survey who may be able to attract more African American and Latino voters to the Republican fold and away from the Democrats. The respondents included in this survey are Republican voters (only) with the numbers grossed up in overall totals to reflect the American Demographic Ethnic Composition (“ADEC”). Second, all of the issues relating to polling eligibility for debates can be better resolved likely by including only those candidates that can hold at least (10%) of support. Based on this RSR survey it appears there may be room for another two to three candidates using that higher criteria which would also satisfy methodological requirements as imposed by news organizations such as Fox News.
Observing other polling firms results gives the impression generally that in a field of a dozen or two dozen Republicans vying for a shot at the Republican nomination Donald Trump had about one in four support. When is faced off against only one other big name candidate and a third response (neither) his numbers rise to about one in three while Jeb Bush's rises from around 15-16% in the field to nearly 4 in 10.
If only decided responses are considered including those Republicans who rejected both Mr. Trump and Mr. Bush than Mr. Trump has about (37%) support and Jeb Bush attracts (45%) both numbers a very different kettle of fish to what we have witnessed to date. If 2012 voter results are used by demographic Governor Bush's lead diminishes to around (5%).
The irony of this outcome from this poll is that the first kicking in of the front door of the Republican Party by Donald Trump included a scathing rebuke of Latino criminals coming into the country illegally, which most Latinos took offence to. Mr. Trump said Latinos love him however these numbers suggest they don't and further reveal it is this category of ethnic voter that places Donald Trump second to Jeb Bush.
Based on anecdote, we believe that this action on Mr. Trump's part helped him to pull nearly even with Jeb Bush among Caucasian voters an amazing feat considering that in the political industry Donald Trump is a very distant outsider.
Even more ironic is the fact that African Americans have taken to Donald Trump at least when he is contrasted with Jeb Bush. These numbers have to be taken seriously to Donald Trump's favour considering much of the balkanized support through Republican ranks in mainstream polling appears to have gone to Jeb Bush. How will these survey suggestions play out in Mr. Trump's political calculus going forward including the possibility he deviates from the Republican race to run as an Independent?
Among the small minority of Latino support for Donald Trump is the understanding that they want their country safe from any criminals like any other American whether that criminal has snuck in over the border or has stolen an airplane to fly into a New York skyscraper. What if Donald Trump makes peace with Hispanics? What if he apologizes?
If Donald Trump leaves the Republican race who is left to challenge Jeb Bush who in one RSR ROBBINS survey has apparently swallowed nearly (20%) of support apparently 'held in political escrow' by the myriad of other candidates on his behalf.
Methodology: A targeted RSR ROBBINS survey of 5,512 Republican voters who supported the party in the 2012 presidential election conducted July 13, 2015 to July 31, 2015. This survey features a margin of error of 1.12% based on outcomes being reconciled with the American Demographic Ethnic Composition, {This is not a random poll}. Adjustments were made to ethnic group and gender numbers to conform to American Demographic Ethnic Composition. Based on actual ethnic voter support for Republican nominee Mitt Romney in conjunction with these survey outcomes the actual lead for Jeb Bush over Donald Trump would equal 5% or within basis points of that percentage.

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