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RSR ROBBINS Research most accurate pollster in the World predicts Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party to win October 19, 2015 general federal election
  Oct 13, 2015

Question #1
From the following response choices offered which leader and party in the Canadian federal election would you vote for if the election were held today? (adjusted for raw data relating to gender presented as 100%)
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    38.4 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    28.3 %
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    25.3 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    3.8 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    4.2 %
(Undecided/Unsure/Can't-Won't Answer    5.3 %
Question #2
This Canadian federal election has been of exceptionally long duration. There has been talk in the campaign of “change” (with emphasis). In your opinion how much “change” would you like to see in government moving forward after the election into the next Parliament, if any change at all? (Outcomes presented net of undecided etc)
I would like to see significant real change    44 %
I would like to see noticeable change    20 %
I would like to see some change    17 %
I would like to see a little change    14 %
I would like to see no real change at all    5 %
(I am unsure or undecided about change    6.9 %
Commentary
Leader and Party support (by Province raw not adjusted)
The Liberal Party of Canada scores: British Columbia (33.4%); Alberta (29.5%); Saskatchewan (31.4%); Manitoba (35.2%); Ontario (42.7%); Quebec (32.3%); New Brunswick (36.7%); Nova Scotia (42.4%); Prince Edward Island (52%); Newfoundland and Labrador (51.8%).
The Conservative Party of Canada scores: British Columbia (27.6%); Alberta (39.6%); Saskatchewan (41.2%); Manitoba (29.5%); Ontario (31.0%); Quebec (16.1%) New Brunswick (26%); Nova Scotia (18%); Prince Edward Island (15%); Newfoundland and Labrador (16.6%)
The New Democratic Party of Canada scores: British Columbia (31.3%); Alberta (20.16%); Saskatchewan (22.5%); Manitoba (23.6%); Ontario (21.1%); Quebec (33.3%); New Brunswick (30.2%); Nova Scotia (33.5%); Prince Edward Island (30.7%); Newfoundland and Labrador (24.8%)
“I would like to see significant real change”: British Columbia (45.3%); Alberta (27.5%); Saskatchewan (25.2%); Manitoba (39.1%); Ontario (40.5%); Quebec (42.6%); New Brunswick (31.2%); Nova Scotia (43.4%); Prince Edward Island (55.2%); Newfoundland and Labrador (54.5%).
Methodology – An RSR ROBBINS Survey and Poll combination averaged in proportion to method of acquisition. Survey outcomes are 5,380 while polling numbers are 2,250 for a total of 7,680. The margin of error presented is (1.12%) meaning that according to RSR ROBBINS Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada could be as low as (37.29%) or as high as (39.53%) (majority government). In the Survey (24%) of persons on lists have been deemed to be not available for one reason or another but not necessarily because they refused to answer. Another (11%) involved other reasons to exclusion including not wanting to respond. Adjustment from raw data to meet obligation of proper 2011 baseline requirements approximately 5% based on difficulty in obtaining the 2011 Conservative total > 39%. which organically from original lists where Conservative participants were believed to be close to 39% from 2011 and/or surveys subsequent to this with net amount at under 33% for Conservatives. Some respondents known by numerous contacts to be identified as Conservatives denied they were Conservatives. This compelled the net amount for Conservative baseline to be grossed up by nearly 20 percent. Many of these survey respondents chose Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada. This could have an impact on the contribution of the survey outcomes to the overall total. On Survey outcome alone based on best case scenario margin of error is 1.34% meaning federal Liberal Party based on gross up to 100% decided could be as low as 37.06% or as high as 39.74%. The polling numbers are random calls by telephone with outcomes adjusted from raw numbers to match provincial voting trends from 2011 (average 61% Quebec and New Brunswick higher than Alberta, BC or Ontario). The polling outcome was based on persons saying they were 'virtually certain to vote' and provided outcome as follows rounded and net of Undecided (7.5%) a lower Undecided than expected which along with the survey results gives us the cautionary sense that the Liberal Party of Canada support is stable and trending upward while the Conservative support is stable at just under 30% and the New Democrats around 25%. These numbers appear similar to other polling numbers of late for the Conservatives and New Democrats but appear to give the Liberal party a pretty clear advantage going into the final days and voting day where anything can happen. Only 17% of persons who picked up the telephone refused to answer the two questions offered. Average age of Survey respondents is 47 while the average age of polling respondents is 45. We don't know the age of 24% of the Survey respondents and were unable to identify the age of 32% of polling respondents. The age average was derived by adding up the ages and dividing by the number who provided the information. We have no way of knowing whether or not the respondents are telling us the truth about their age in the poll, but we are quite certain of the age of the survey respondents. (Warning #1: No effort was made to adjust age averages over actual demographics). (Caveat #1: In Q#2 we use the branding the Liberal Party of Canada agent used and did not seek permission to do so 'significant real change' is not exactly how it is used in advertising by the Federal Liberal Party (real change as opposed to just change) but this could be construed as a push question to the favour of the Liberal Party of Canada). Our intention was, given the major issue of change involved in this Canadian federal election, to match its totals to the the leader and party outcomes. If this is seen as a bias in favour of the Liberal Party of Canada we don't believe it makes the polls unscientific but leave it to the personal judgment of the reader. (Caveat #2 older voters voted to a higher percentile than in younger groups and in the survey and poll this was not adjusted for) Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada (39%), Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada (27%), Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada (24%), Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada (4.5%) and Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois Party (4.5%). The data was obtained September 30th – October 9th, 2015. Not all calls were made from Canada. The listed sponsor will be Glen Robbins.

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