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RSR ROBBINS - Most Accurate Pollster in the World - The GOP race (#'s from New York State, Ohio, Florida, Texas, California - Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich - and surprise George W Bush
  Feb 16, 2016

Question #1
Which of the following candidates for do you support to become the Republican nominee to seek the Presidency this year? (New York, Ohio, Florida, Texas, California)
Jeb Bush    25.6 %
Donald Trump    23.6 %
Marco Rubio    22.3 %
Ted Cruz    12.8 %
John Kasich    10.2 %
Question #2
In your opinion over the period in time in which he served did former President George W. Bush make the United States:
More Safe    52 %
Less Safe    33 %
Commentary
Jeb Bush takes the lead in the race for Republican nominee through 5 U.S. States representing most important Electoral College votes. Jeb Bush attracts support in Texas (36%) and Florida (where he was former Governor) (34%). He attracts more modest support in California (23%), Ohio (19%) and New York State (14%).
Donald Trump is on Jeb Bush's hip with high score in New York State (40%), California (21%), Ohio (21%), Texas (18%), and Florida (17%).
Marco Rubio is in third place on Donald Trump's hip with high score in Florida (25%), Texas (23%), California (21%), New York State (14%), and Ohio (14%).
Ted Cruz is some distance back from Marco Rubio with high score in Texas (20%), Florida (18%), California (11%), Ohio (11%) and New York State (7%).
John Kasich is on Ted Cruz's hip with high score in Ohio (41%), (15%) in California, (11%) in New York State, (5%) in Florida and (3%) in Texas.
Jeb Bush gets some of the political wind at his back with (52%) of GOP voters acknowledging that his brother, the former U.S. President George W. Bush made the U.S. “More Safe”, while (33%) say he made the U.S. “Less Safe”.
This RSR ROBBINS poll of 2,327 Grand Old Party “Voters” (Republican) occurring February 5-12th, 2016. “Voters” are depicted as “very likely to vote in the election of the next President of the United States”. This poll features a Margin of Error of 2.03 percent. The calculation is taken from percentage support of total respondents and than multiplied by population per state. A final tally of numbers from each state calculation becomes a sum divided by the overall population (not adjusted for turnout by each state).
The next U.S. State GOP primary is to be held in South Carolina. Coincidentally, following polling George W. Bush decided to emerge from retirement to help his brother Jeb. These numbers would suggest that it was the correct thing to do. However, these numbers do suggest that Jeb Bush requires a first or second place showing to alter the narrative of this campaign in his favour. Less than that, given the numbers for his brother George W. Bush at over 50% will be troublesome particularly if his showing in South Carolina is worse than third.
Donald Trump is also under alot of pressure in South Carolina, he has staked his claim in recent comments that George W. Bush did not keep Americans safe which offers him a constituency of respondents in the one third percentile-with a good percentage of these coming from New York and California, two States which Donald Trump must win to be a viable contender. Mr. Trump's support in Florida and Texas is underwhelming...but could change if the South introduces him as the real deal.
Marco Rubio is back in the contest with really solid numbers in Florida, Texas and California. A good showing in South Carolina, particularly if he beats Jeb Bush and Donald Trump could turn him into the bona fide front runner for the nomination.
Ted Cruz has influential support in Florida and Texas and South Carolina is meaningful to his campaign.
John Kasich is still in this.. but is some distance behind if his hometown Ohio numbers are subtracted from his total. His numbers in South Carolina need to show proof of life. If he surprises given his decent support in California and New York he cannot be counted out.

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