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RSR Poll - 2016 United States Presidential race - following Chicago - Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders & Ted Cruz - Read all about it
  Mar 15, 2016

Question #1
Which of the following candidates (only) for President are you currently supporting?
Donald Trump    29 %
Hillary Clinton    28 %
Bernie Sanders    22 %
Ted Cruz    17 %
Undecided    4 %
Question #2
Which of the following races for President do you believe would be most exciting?
Donald Trump v Bernie Sanders    37 %
Donald Trump v Hillary Clinton    31 %
Bernie Sanders v Ted Cruz    14 %
Hillary Clinton v Ted Cruz    7 %
Question #3
Have you witnessed on the news, heard about in other media or otherwise become aware of the events in Chicago Illinois at this relates to the canceled Donald Trump rally and involving Bernie Sanders supporters in protest?
Yes    60 %
No    35 %
Question #4
Who (if anyone) is most to blame for the altercation in Chicago?
Donald Trump    43 %
Bernie Sanders    29 %
Question #5
Would you support an increase in taxes on estates of the very rich with those additional monies going to state and community level governments?
Yes    43 %
No    37 %
Commentary
Based on 'Voter base' from 2012 estimated at 130,000,000, Donald Trump now attracts support of 37,000,000 'Voters' based on random of 4 response choices (exclusive of “Undecided”), @ random of 32,500,000 -25%.
In our January 2016, RSR ROBBINS poll of six respondents (where random is 21,600,000), Donald Trump received (12.63%) support or 16,000,000 'Voters' in support.
Donald Trump has improved from 16 million to 37 million 'Voter' support since January 30, 2016 barely five weeks.
His support has gone from (74%) of random to ((1-14%)) of random an increase of (40%). If random is equal to (50%) than Donald Trump (57%) when his January 30, 2015 score would assess equivalently measured at (37%). Donald Trump's support against competition has increased by (20%) of total. *This is a survey of voters and would not include 'new voters'. A phenomenal head of steam.
Hillary Clinton has (28%) support in a field of 4, while achieving (23.44%) in January 30, 2016 (18 million) in a field of 6. Her current support is 36,500,000 or (10.5%) support above random. The Secretary's support currently is measured at (55%). Her January 2016 total would assess equivalently at (43%). Hillary Clinton's support against competition has increased by (12%) of total. Very steady.
Bernie Sanders has (22%) in a field of 4 or 28.6 million and (88%) of random. Our January 30, 2016 revealed the Vermont Senator's support at (22.41%) in a filed of 6 respondents. Currently Bernie Sanders has support of (88%) of random or (44%), against Jan 30, 2016 support of 29,000,000 ((1-34%)). Bernie Sanders has gone from an assessed score of (67%) to (44%) or a decrease of (23%).
Air Sanders is – relatively speaking in a slight descent, which Super Tuesday (March 15, 2016) could correct, if he is successful.
Ted Cruz was not included in our January 30, 2016 survey though his current support is suggested at (17%) or 22 million in this field of four. This support would score the Texas Senator at (68%) of random and an assessment of (34%).
Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz combined equal 59 million or (45.6%) of total 2012 'Voter base', while Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Sanders combined attract 66.1 million or (50.8%) of total 2012 'Voter base'.
(Thirty seven percent) of respondents or 48,000,000 million 'Voters' believe Donald Trump v Bernie Sanders would be the most exciting race for President, [only 8 million more people than who already support Donald Trump], but more than 19,000,000 more for Senator Sanders.
Donald Trump v Hillary Clinton attracts 40.3 million Voters 'excited' at the prospect of this race.
More than (60%) of American Voters have watched....are aware of the circumstances which occurred in Chicago the of of last week (78,000,000). Fifty six million Voters blame Donald Trump while 74,000,000 blame either Bernie Sanders or are (Undecided, Can't (or won't) Answer), or (aren't blaming anyone.)
Ted Cruz supporters are NOT blaming Donald Trump, while a very small percentage of Hillary Clinton supporters are blaming Bernie Sanders. Both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio publicly blamed Donald Trump. Our numbers suggest this was a miscalculation. Will March 15, 2016 outcomes confirm or deny their positions.
Blame/Support for Donald Trump is 43/29 or 60/40, while blame support for Bernie Sanders is 29/22 or 57/33. Ted Cruz (used instead of Marco Rubio or John Kasich) is better to pivot as constitutional for Donald Trump's right to speak, rather than moralizing negatively about his rallies. The former action gives his voice timber and volume, the latter makes him squeak to the apparent irrelevancy of the Republican establishment.
The total 'blame' for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is (72%) or 94,000,000 'Voters', higher than the total of those aware of the Chicago 'event' and nearly double the percentage of respondents who find a Trump v Sanders contest 'exciting'. The combined support for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is (51%) or 66,000,000, while 40.3 million see Donald Trump v Bernie Sanders as the most exciting presidential race of any combination.
Donald Trump would be wise to turn the blame on, and indeed take his battle to Bernie Sanders. His opponents snipe at the prospect of the socialist, and Hillary cannot afford to create a vacuum in her race with any call (however valid the circumstances) for Bernie's departure.
If Donald Trump can move some of the blame or negative attention he is getting, even from people who were not following the Chicago event, he can at least mollify some Undecided (in candidate support question) and throw the proverbial shoe back on the Democrats particularly with the Chicago backdrop—contrasting his nationalism-populism to their socialism. “Being a socialist doesn't mean your a nice or good person”.
This moment in time provides Bernie Sanders an opportunity to a voir dire with Donald Trump with Hillary Clinton placed on the outside of the public courtroom. Bernie Sanders may be wise to protest all of Trumps rallies wherever and whenever possible – not to incite, but to show that this is the real contest, and leave 'the other' contest between the Republican establishment and Hillary Clinton. Imagine if at these rally meetings there were signs of civil course between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders supporters? Bernie would say his supporters “care about communities” while Trump and Republicans “only care about power.”
Some interesting outcomes per candidate response on the topic of estate taxes, something that would never have been on the table in previous elections. Fourty-six percent of Donald Trump supporters are for estate taxes on the 'very rich', while (32%) of his supporters are not. Thirty-four percent of Hillary Clinton supporters are for this tax while (53%) are against. Sixty-eight percent of Bernie Sanders support it, while (19%) do not, while (41%) of Ted Cruz supporters are for it and (45%) are not.
Bernie Sanders could drop this estate tax on the very rich issue into high gear with 56,000,000 million American 'Voters' in support, and with nearly (60%) of Trump supporters in favour of it as well.
Conclusion:
Donald Trumps (relative) support has grown substantially since January 30, 2016 according to our RSR ROBBINS poll (survey), while Hillary Clinton's has grown modestly but steadily.
Bernie Sanders relative support has declined over the same period. He has the chips remaining but needs to go all in and push the Robbins 1 percent estate tax against the very rich as a proposition and platform. It is a transforming tax policy consideration when so many Americans are receptive to it for the first time (likely ever), and when there is real support for it among Republican leaders Trump and Cruz.
The perception (anecdotal) is that Donald Trump is being better tested than other candidates, the evidence would appear to support this, although it could be said that Mr. Trump sought out the test more than other candidates.
Donald Trump has managed to carry the cross as a most unusual martyr without being seen as a victim, the best convergence of political strength in the U.S., (which remains a very christian nation). He does not quit, he fights for what he believes, and rightly or wrongly, a lot of Americans like this.
There is a case to be made that Bernie Sanders supporters at Donald Trump rally's had a strategic component to it. Bernie Sanders is aware his overall support (relative to other contestants), is likely declining while Donald Trump's is certainly increasing. This dramatic and threatening event between the two groups might have benefited Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump both.
Hillary Clinton may not be hurt, but she wasn't on the fight card and she cannot continue to be on the outside looking in at the change taking place.
Donald Trump's decision to cancel the Chicago rally must, in light of these numbers, be considered a winning decision for him. Suggestions that he should never have held the rally (political inference that he invited the trouble in the first place) is unsound on its face as it suggests that a candidate for president should be circumspect about where he takes his campaign for highest office, though it is more than fair to draw a history of Mr. Trump's campaign statements to this moment in Chicago in terms of cause of effect.
Mr. Trump canceled the Chicago rally, and is thus seen by a majority of 'Voters' as 'not guilty' (though many on the jury are voting 'guilty'). The point here is this – at a moment in the campaign where the real manifestation of very highly charged political statements, (mostly from Mr. Trump) peak in a Chicago protest – the disapproval rating against Donald Trump, once over sixty percent – would have to be reevaluated (and downward I suspect) given Donald Trump's decision not to pursue the confrontation. His support in a field of 4 candidates is (29%), meaning 71% either support another choice or are undecided, yet, only (43%) blame him for Chicago.
Even on a decided basis (if) we 'hypothetically' assessed blame against Donald Trump at (56%) the average of the two numbers involved ((43%) & (56%)) would average (50%) the total support for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders combined. With the Trump-Cruz combined support at (46%), and a closer contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders than Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, it benefits Donald Trump to encourage campaign rallies, but not incite – and turn the cheek (a bit) and speak in a presidential manner if just in the short term.
He will have to learn to do it sooner or later, and right now the left is charging like a bull, be the matador not the bull.
The evidence of Donald Trump's arguably aggressive and mean spirited statements and altercations at rally's did not support any indictment of loss of support against him by American Voters, rather his circumspect decision to not hold a really (free speech) appears to have resonated with Voters in this RSR ROBBINS Survey. If anything Voters are offering an increase in support for Donald Trump.
There is little evidence of news interviewing Bernie Sanders about the role of his supporters in Chicago clearly identified in media.
I would say that the real theory developing here is- did Bernie Sanders attempt to provoke a fight to keep his own support relevant in his fight against Hillary Clinton. It is unlikely that Hillary Clinton can be beaten for the Democratic nomination, but her easy glide to nomination/coronation (based significantly on method of delegate allocation) is not doing anything to make her candidacy or the Democratic campaign very interesting (given the growing entertainment element within the interesting), while she continues to grow visible 'spores of establishment' about the body (politic), in an environment where growing legions of American Voters are against the 'establishment'.
Secretary Clinton runs the risk of running cold, a condition more difficult to correct than turning down the heat. With Bernie Sanders confronting Donald Trump in Chicago, and Mr. Trump essentially taking action for public safety in response, Donald Trump helps himself and his campaign and likely provides Bernie Sanders with some of Trump's heat against a chilling Hillary Clinton.
If Senator Sanders can charge hard to the Democratic delegation, win or lose, he has room to negotiate with her should she becomes the nominee of the Party. It will be difficult for Mrs. Clinton to ignore Bernie Sanders for VP., doing so will leave gaps in the Democratic house – of independents particularly or other current supporters of Bernie Sanders, who may not vote Republican – but could sit the contest out.
Donald Trump cannot be beat – for most seats in the Republican race, however if the Party establishment attempts to usurp him – he has the opportunity to break away and create a three way race for President where his current totals will be enough to win and the Republican stand in will likely draw only enough support to permit Mr. Trump the cause of action, and the subsequent run up the middle for the win in a 'three way'.
An RSR Survey of 2,023 'American Voters by telephone March 12, 2016 to March 14, 2016. This Survey has a margin of error of (2.18%) plus or minus 5%. Donald Trump has either a (5.5%) lead over Hillary Clinton or is (3.5%) behind her based only on question 1 outcomes. This produces a (67%) likelihood of lead for Donald Trump v Hillary Clinton at this time. Donald Trump's lead over Bernie Sanders is (2.5%) to (11.5%), while his lead over Ted Cruz is (8%) to (16%). Hillary Clinton has a lead over Bernie Sanders of between (1.5%) to (10.5%).

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