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ROBBINS - California Dreamin' Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Judge Garland with appearance by Jeb Bush
  Mar 22, 2016

Question #1
Which of the following candidates do you currently support from the list of Republican Party response choices provided?
Donald Trump    34 %
Ted Cruz    22 %
John Kasich    20 %
Undecided/No Opinion/Unsure/Can't Answer    24 %
Question #2
Some in the Republican Party choose to deny Donald Trump the party nomination based on their position that his actions during the process deem him unfit to lead. Which of the following response choices best represents your own sentiment on this subject?
I believe whoever wins the most delegates should represent the party    19 %
I believe if Donald Trump achieves the 1,237 majority or comes close to it he should represent the Republican Party    31 %
I believe that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would be the best compromise candidate for the Republican Party    27 %
Undecided/No Opinion/Unsure/Can't Answer    23 %
Question #3
U.S. President Barack Obama recently nominated Merrick Garland chief judge of the United States Court of Appeal to fill the vacancy left after the death of Antonin Scalia. Garland is described as a judicial moderate with an inclination toward pro prosecution in criminal cases. He is considered a legal genius who has determined that marijuana is as dangerous as heroin and that the District of Columbia is not a State. In your opinion should the Senate proceed with hearings during the election period to confirm or deny Judge Garland's appointment to the Supreme Court of the United States?
Yes    22 %
No    46 %
Undecided/Don't know    32 %
Commentary
Based on DECIDED totals from question 1, Donald Trump attracts (42%) of support, while Ted Cruz and John Kasich attract (27%) and (25%) respectively for a total of (52%) decided support. Ted Cruz performs better in the south of the state while John Kasich does better in the center and north.
Over (60%) of decided respondents are of the current opinion that “whoever win the most delegates should represent the party”, or, alternatively that “if Donald Trump achieve the 1,237 majority or comes close to it he should represent the Republican Party.” (Thirty-three and one half per cent) of decided California Republicans believe “Jeb Bush would be the best compromise candidate for the Republican Party”.
All of the candidates are from big Electoral College' states. Donald Trump, New York State; Ted Cruz, Texas State; John Kasich, Ohio State. Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida, and well known U.S. 1st family from Texas & Marco Rubio, Florida State remain on the ballot.
The Democrat prospects for nomination are Hillary Clinton, New York; and Bernie Sanders, Vermont; both north eastern States. If this RSR Survey is an indication, it appears unlikely that either John Kasich or Ted Cruz can beat Donald Trump (in California) in terms of popular support. It also appears that neither Ted Cruz nor John Kasich can beat Donald Trump in total delegates.
It is possible however that Ted Cruz & John Kasich could keep Donald Trump from satisying the criteria in the 2nd response choice from question 2: “I believe if Donald Trump achieves the 1,237 majority or comes close to it he should represent the Republican Party”
This 2nd response choice from question # 2 attracts (38%) of decided response choices, (which is (12%) higher than Jeb Bush's decided total).
Donald Trump has set the bar at roughly 100 less than 1,237 or 1,137 which would be equivalent to the 2nd response choice in question 2 offered in this RSR ROBBINS survey to California Republicans.
For purposes of debate, let's assume that Donald Trump only secures 1,050 delegates or 187 less than required (& 87 lower than his own standard). In this circumstance he would have technically met only the condition prescribed by the 1st response choice in question # 2 or (23.5%) of decided respondents.
There are 2,472 Republican delegates 'to get' in total, with 1,237 being the 'advertised' winning threshold (over 50%). Donald Trump has 673 (to 696) delegates attached to his candidacy of (estimated) total 1395 (to 1,424) delegates assigned to Republican candidates to date.
There are an estimated 1,048 to 1,077 left to win. If Donald Trump currently has the higher number of 696 with 1,077 left to win he requires 541 or 50% plus of remaining delegates. If Donald Trump has 673 delegates with 1,048 to win he requires 564 or 54%.
To meet his own standard of 'close' or 1,137, Donald Trump requires an estimated 439 or 46% of remaining delegates [similar to his current 48% pace] but far less than either of the 51% to 54% his opponents would see as necessary for him to achieve.
On averaging our percentages through the (23.5%) 'decided support' ascribed to response #1 in question #2 and (38%) to response #2 in question 2 we have a difference between the two acceptable thresholds of just < (15%). If Donald Trump meets his own threshold of 46% of the remaining delegates it is reasonable to conclude that he attracts two thirds of the (15%) or (10%) of the amount in between the two response choice 'standards'.
This would give him an equal total to the Jeb Bush, the State of California Republican convention compromise candidate proposed in question #2 of this RSR ROBBINS study.
We calculated our RSR ROBBINS theories from outcomes relating to Donald Trump's prospects moving forward to the Republican convention on the basis of decided outcomes to response choices from question 2. It is therefore necessary to equate these decided outcomes to Donald Trump's decided popular support which is (42%) from question # 1.
Donald Trump has to date achieved 48% of delegates with voter support of 37% of total. With this in mind, and knowledge that unlike Canada where control of government can be achieved with less than 40% voter support (and where provincial judicial appointment recommendations can be made in the local pub), the presidency can only be won with over 50% of the vote (in a two party race).
To make his case for nomination, Donald Trump would likely have to do better than his own standard of '100 less' than the proscribed 1,237, number and also make sure his popular support increases or does not decrease.
The State of California (all things being relatively equal) will be a major factor in producing evidence from which to draw inferences and conclusions prior to the Republican Convention in July 2016.
Donald Trump has some hurdles to overcome based on these numbers. Governor Bush's compromise candidate, numbers are, based on these numbers and assumptions drawn from them, nearly equal to Donald Trumps. From his position at response choice #3 in question 2, Jeb Bush attracts (32%) of John Kasich's decided support from question 1 and (62%) of Ted Cruz's support or (25%) decided support from Kasich and Cruze, in between their decided totals, a true compromise.
However, Jeb Bush attracts (5%) of Donald Trumps decided support to attain his (27%) 'raw' support located at response #3 in question 2. Given the high number of undecided influenced in part by the distance in time between this survey and the California primaries, this fleck of minority support for Jeb Bush as a compromise from Donald Trump's totals must not go unnoticed.
In our RSR ROBBINS survey of Republican candidates dated February 16, 2016 Jeb Bush attracted (23%) (while still active) support or about (25%) decided support in a 5 person field with Random = (20%) making Jeb Bush (25%) above random @ February 16, 2016.
In our February 16, 2016 survey, Donald Trump attracted (21%) or (22.5%) decided, or (7%) above Random. In February 16, 2016 Ted Cruz was (-35%) below Random. In our current poll he is (-18%) Random, an improvement of (17%). John Kasich was (10.2%) in our February 16, 2016 survey or (-49%) Random. His current support is (-24%) Random an improvement of (25%).
John Kasich's Random support improvement from February 16, 2016 to this survey is equal to the percentage Jeb Bush achieved in the February 16, 2016 survey.
So....from February 16, 2016 until now in the State of California according to our RSR ROBBINS survey John Kasich has improved relatively speaking by (25%), Donald Trump by (20%), and Ted Cruz by (18%). If Jeb Bush's totals are unscientifically provided as support (response #3, question #2) than his 'support' has improved by (7%) since February 2016.
If we attach the overall (2%) Jeb Bush appears to be able to take from Trump supporters from question #1 to response #3, question #2 where Jeb Bush is imposed, than that (2%) is doubled by virtue of its affect on Trump's net totals and gives Jeb Bush a decided total of (37%). If Donald Trump is allocated a 'net' decided total of (40%) and Jeb Bush is permitted at (37%) total than the relationship between the two political personalities can be apportioned (52%) to (48%) Donald Trump over Jeb Bush.
The California Republican primaries may well be the preeminent factor going into the Republican convention a month or so later.
According to the Los Angeles Times March 20, 2016 online article by Reporter Phil Willon: “When California Republicans cast their votes in the June 7 primary...they'll be confronting the ghost of candidates past.” “That means Republicans could still cast a vote for former Governor Jeb Bush, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, New Jersey gov Chris Christie, former Hewlett-Packard Chief Carly Fiorina.....or Florida Senator Marco Rubio.”
“Under California law, candidates who have dropped out can be removed from the ballot only if they file an affidavit with the secretary of state's office before April 1st” (2016).”
“It's possible, albeit a long shot, that Bush, Rubio or another of the candidates who dropped out could win some delegates in California. The vast majority of delegates are awarded, three at a time, to the winner of the each of the states 53 congressional districts.”
The political chess match which the Republican primary process to secure a nominee has become is magnified in importance in this RSR BOBBINS California Republican Survey (“R.C.R.S.”) which requires some thoughtful consideration.
If the goal is to block Donald Trump from the nomination and take the party to a brokered convention, is it more important to reduce Donald Trump's popular vote total in California or delegate total if you had to choose one? How is that best achieved?
Reasoning would suggest the delegate total is the most important consideration particularly given California's method for achieving delegates. The popular support provides us a baseline of consideration particularly when we include the Jeb Bush outcome 'inferences' from question 2.
More specifically its suggests a race between the combined percentage of John Kasich and Ted Cruz attracting (52%) over Donald Trump at about (48%), a set-off against the hypothecated 52%-48% Trump win over the 'appearance' of Jeb Bush... “for he loves our nation and it was he who built us our synagogue”.
Merrick Garland is the chief judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit since 1997. He is originally from Chicago where Barrack Obama is also from.
“Garland attended Harvard College on scholarship graduating as valedictorian – then attended Harvard Law School, graduating magna cum laude in 1977. Following graduation, Garland served as a law clerk for Judge Henry Friendly of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit – and following that clerking for William J. Brennan of the U.S. Supreme Court.”
“In September 1995 Garland was nominated by Democratic President Bill Clinton to the District of Columbia court circuit. In December 1995 he was scheduled to receive a hearing before the U.S. Judiciary Committee, however Senate Republicans refused to schedule a vote on Garland's confirmation, not because of Garland's qualifications but because of a dispute over whether to fill his predecessor's seat.”
“After winning the 1996 presidential election, Clinton renominated Garland on January 7, 1997. Garland's confirmation vote came to the floor of the Senate on March 19, 1997. The majority of the Republican Senate voted to confirm Garland including Senators John McCain (Arizona) and Orrin Hatch (Utah), while Mitch McConnell (Kentucky) and Jeff Sessions (Alabama) were against confirmation.”
None of the “No” votes were related to Garland's qualifications who is described as a brilliant lawyer and judge who is moderate with a definite tilt toward criminal cases. 'He is acknowledged as a legal genius and avoids making unnecessary opinion'. In 2013 Judge Garland “joined the divided court in finding that marijuana is as dangerous as heroin.” “He wrote the majority opinion in Alexander v Daley (2000) determining that the District of Columbia is not a state.”
(Twenty-one percent) of Donald Trump supporters in the State of California also support moving ahead with Senate hearing for appointment of Judge Garland, while (34%) of John Kasich supporters also support it, and (17%) of Cruz supporters in California do as well. (27%) of respondents who select Jeb Bush in response choice #3 from question #2 support the commencement of the Senate hearings the “during the election period to confirm or deny Judge Garland's appointment to the Supreme Court of the United States”.
A noteworthy minority of Republican Party supporters in the State of California support the commencement of Senate hearings “during the election period”.
Reasons for Judgment of Political Judge ROBBINS:
There are two standards set for achievement in the Republican race to choose a nominee to represent the party in the race for the presidency this year. The least arbitrary is reflected in the actual number of delegates achieved to attain a majority being 1,237. If Donald Trump achieves this number of > than the Republican Party ought to accept his candidacy without rancor or complaint.
The second standard is one which Donald Trump has admitted to, that being 100 below the number mandated by the party. This number is acceptable to (31%) of 'raw' California response or (38%) decided. The sub standard to this 2nd standard acceptable to California Republicans is a winner takes all type of mentality (accepted by a minority of respondents other than Trump supporters), or (23%) decided.
Republicans support John Kasich and Ted Cruz by more than 4 in 10 actual respondents 'raw (to Donald Trump's) 3.4/10 actual respondents, and represent a majority of decided respondents. Better than one in four actual respondents are ready to pick former Governor Jeb Bush who is not in the race, or one in three decided. As a decided percentage the Cruz – Kasich decided numbers averaged with the Jeb Bush numbers average (41%) to (47%) depending on how calculations are made, while Donald Trumps decided support from question 1 is (42%).
The assumed support for Donald Trump's candidacy if California sets the American Benchmark for deciding and equals or surpasses the standard Mr. Trump has set for himself located in response choice #2 at question 2, is hereby assessed by averaging the following: (1) Mr. Trump's raw support (35%), (2) Mr. Trump's decided support (42%), (3) raw support from response choices #1 & #2 , question 2, (50%), (4) decided total from #1 & #2, question 2 (59%).
Assuming a reasonably high majority of California Democrats would support the commencement of the hearings to confirm Judge Garland, and factoring the noteworthy number of Republican respondents who agree with this, and after considering the matter of his confirmation to the District of Columbia court circuit in 1997 delayed by Republicans on the basis of whether another jurist was necessary, the same rationale cannot be said of the U.S. Supreme Court and Senate hearings would be more likely to illuminate the political contest than smother it.
Recent History of Presidential races: The last time Republicans won California was 1988 when George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis 53.4% to 45.6%. Democrat nominee John Kerry beat George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election 54.31% to 45.6%, Barack Obama beat Republican candidate John McCain 52.9% to 45.7%, and again won California in the 2012 presidential election trouncing Mitt Romney 60.2% to 37.1%. Most of these losses could be blamed on how unpopular Republicans have been in larger California cities.
An RSR ROBBINS Survey of 1,250 respondents undertaken March 15, 2016 to March 20, 2016 with best efforts to consider results from areas in the State of California known as: Amador, Colusa, El Dorado, Glenn, Mariposa, Orange, Plumes, Shasta, Sierra, Sutter, and Yuba, in conjunction with evidence from Sacramento, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego. The support for the commencement of Senate hearings for confirmation of Judge Garland reflects a difference of (12%) less support from smaller towns and cities than in larger cities. The Margin of Error of this RSR ROBBINS Survey is 2.77% plus or minus predicated on use of a population size of 5,200,000 the approximate number of votes cast in 2012 for Mitt Romney, Republican nominee.

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