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RSR ROBBINS - U.S. Presidential (Florida) @ September 7, 2016 - The Great American Divorce: Trump v Clinton, featuring- Immigration and Colin Kaepernik
  Sep 07, 2016

Question #1
Florida: (Based on Poll/Survey & Florida Ethnic Demo 2014). Which leader and party do you currently support for President of the United States?
Donald Trump, Republican    44.15 %
Hillary Clinton, Democrat    40.02 %
Gary Johnson, Libertarian    8.88 %
Jill Stein, Green Party    1.58 %
Undecided    5.38 %
Question #2
Florida (Based on presidential turnout Ethnic Demo 2012) Which leader and party do you currently support for President of the United States?
Donald Trump, Republican    47.29 %
Hillary Clinton, Democrat    37.41 %
Gary Johnson, Libertarian    9.15 %
Jill Stein, Green    2.13 %
Question #3
Is Immigration currently a “good thing” or a “bad thing” -- in your opinion?
Good thing    45 %
Bad thing    47 %
Question #4
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernik has recently become better known for refusing to stand during the U.S. national anthem at his team's football game explaining his actions as follows: “I am not going to stand up to show pride in a a flag for a country that oppresses black people and people of colour.” Which of the following responses in your opinion best explains your opinion of Mr. Kaeperniks' actions and conduct?
Mr. Kaepernick is entitled to his freedom of speech period    27.02 %
Mr. Kaepernick is entitled to his freedom of speech but his NFL games are not an appropriate forum    26.56 %
Mr. Kaepernick's actions are selfish and disrespectful of the flag and the country    44.93 %
Commentary
Based on “Decided” numbers (rounded to nearest half) Donald Trump achieves and average of (47%) support, while Hillary Clinton receives (41%). Libertarian leader Gary Johnson achieves (9%) support while Jill Stein receives (2%).
From beginning to end of polling/survey period Donald Trump gains (15%) of beginning averages, Hillary Clinton loses (6%), Gary Johnson loses (17%) and Jill Stein loses (33%).
Donald Trump averages along ethnic lines: Caucasian (54%), African American (21%), Latino/Hispanic (26%), Asian/Other (40%).
Hillary Clinton averages: Caucasian (31%), African American (61%), Latino/Hispanic (47%), Asian/Other (39%).
Gary Johnson averages: Caucasian (9%), African American (4%), Latino/Hispanic (12%), Asian/Other (12%).
Jill Stein averages: Caucasian (3%), African American (1%), Latino/Hispanic (4%), Asian (3%).
Undecided along ethnic lines: Caucasian (1%), African American (9%), Latino/Hispanic (7%), Asian/Other (4%).
On June 3, 2016 our RSR ROBBINS poll of smaller sample had Trump at (44.88%) and Hillary Clinton at (42.37%). In this poll we had Donald Trump with an unheard (44%) of African American support. The explanation for this was that African Americans were not sure which of two Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders they would support, with many not enamored by either.
African American support was 'parked' with Donald Trump, who at the time was castigating the Republican Party on a daily basis, actions attractive to many African American voters, (or for purposes of general mockery). Whatever the case, African Americans in relatively speaking 'record numbers' are showing support for Donald Trump.
African Americans don't like the Republican Party. They are not enamored with Donald Trump by any stretch, but since June 3, 2016 when doubts began to emerge about the integrity of the Democratic Party administration, the Black Lives Matter protest/movement began to emerge, the African American voter has found its way toward traditional support of the Democratic Party, but not with the guarantee of massive and overwhelming support. In fact, many African Americans are beginning to protest generally, with a noteworthy minority hanging with Trump on the basis that “it cannot get worse”.
A clear minority of African Americans are supporting Trump at this time.
The problem for Hillary Clinton is that the current support from the African American in Florida is much lower for her than for past Democratic candidates. In the last two presidential elections their candidate has been an African American, Barack Obama.
During the course of this RSR ROBBINS poll/survey Donald Trump made (relatively speaking for a Republican Party leader) evident overtures to the African American community, and planted doubt among this demographic that it has been taken for granted by Democratic leaders including city mayors who he asserts have accomplished little for the African American community over a period of decades.
The ready existence of the Black Lives Matter protest coupled with Colin Kaepernik's very visible protest in support of Black Lives....or their objectives generally has not in fact helped Hillary Clinton, it has helped Donald Trump and others. Some African Americans are asking themselves....why give your support to a party taking you for granted, particularly when the new leader of your party is not Barack Obama.
This overtures of doubt and castigation by Donald Trump has been aided by a near weekly drip, drip, drip, and sometimes flood of email material relating to Hillary Clinton's time as Secretary of State. This doubt began in earnest with emails which appeared to show dubious ethical tactics used by the Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton against Bernie Sanders (prior to the Democratic Party convention). It has continued on like rain in a Brazilian jungle and is sufficiently metasisized like cancer on Hillary Clinton's credibility.
The problem with Hillary Clinton and emails, FBI reports, etc seen in conjunction with the tactics used against Bernie Sanders, and with apparent links between Clinton aides and the Clinton Foundation have African Americans in (slowly) growing numbers reaching out for a voting alternative to the Democratic Party, “if they do this to people on their team...they sure aren't going to care about anyone else including us”.
These alternatives include Donald Trump at (21%) support among African Americans, Gary Johnson with (5%) and Jill Stein with (1%). Added to the (9%) Undecided among African Americans, we are prepared to suggest that currently, in the State of Florida (36%) of African Americans either support another candidate/party than Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party or are Undecided.
Other mainstream pollsters will undoubtedly want to test numbers reflecting minority support for African Americans, given that in the past, a high outcome of support for any past Republican leader would be pegged 10 percent. Even at this 'lofty' baseline, our suggested support of (21%) for Donald Trump would add just less than (2%) (globally) to Donald Trump's total of (43%) Decided support.
At RSR ROBBINS we believe our theories and assumption based on the anecdotal evidence of two polls/surveys over the past 3 months involving the State of Florida will have significant relevance to the outcome of this presidential election as this relates to demographic support based on ethnic background.
If African Americans vote in higher numbers for Donald Trump and his Caucasian numbers continue to grow, he will be the next President of the United States.
Will we be correct (again) in predicting the unexpected, as we did when we polled Barack Obama ahead Hillary Clinton in February 2008, when the mainstream pollsters had the former First Lady 8-12% in the lead?
Less conspicuous but certainly noteworthy is the combined (6%) of African American support for Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green). These amounts alone are nearly the total support many traditional Republicans receive from African American voters.
The Republican Party has had some traditional success with Hispanic/Latino Voters with both George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush attracting between 25%-35% support among this ethnic demographic.
Much has been made of the 'Great Wall of Trump' which Mr. Trump continues to claim he will build. Although there are many misunderstandings as to whether or not Donald Trump's Immigration Policy (“D.T.I.P.”) is to the extreme right of, or equivalent to Barack Obama's, does not seem to hurt growing support for Donald Trump in Florida.
Our second question using language similar to the great pollster Gallup – suggests that Americans do not have as positive a perception of Immigration as they once did when Gallup was polling their question, which we have covered herein. Gallup traditionally reflected a higher amount in the mid and high 50's that Immigration was a good thing. This RSR ROBBINS polls suggests this perception has changed, and Donald Trump is the one responsible for this change in perception.
According to the Migration Policy Institution on tabulation of data from U.S. Census Bureau's 2010-2014 American Community Survey “immigrants” are equally defined as “foreign born” (not a U.S. Citizen at birth. “This population includes naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, certain legal non immigrants (student/work visas), have been admitted under refugee or asylum status, and persons illegally residing in the United States”.
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data “on annual flows and naturalization trends” from May 26th, 2016 suggests there are 42.4 million “immigrants” who lived in the United States in 2014.”
These “immigrants....and their U.S. born children now number 81 million or 26 percent of the U.S. Population”.
“In 2014, Mexican immigrants accounted for approximately 28% of the 42.4 “foreign born” in the United States.” This determination indicates that over 11,000,000 “foreign born” “immigrants” originated from the country of Mexico.
If we extrapolate this number to include the equivalent extrapolation including U.S. born children belonging to Mexican parents this number would come in at about 20 million.
In 2014, around 47 percent of “immigrants” (20 million) were naturalized U.S. Citizens. The remaining 53 percent...included lawful permanent residents, unauthorized immigrants, and legal residents on temporary visas.
In December 27, 2015 William Campenni “a retired engineer and a 33-year Air Force/Air National Guard fighter pilot” wrote Commentary in the conservative online newspaper “The Daily Signal” saying the following:
“Call any journalist, pundit,...strategist and ask 1. How many illegal immigrants are in the United States?” “Almost with exception the answer will be “11 million.”
Mr. Campenni then goes on to make the point that this “11 million” number has been used for well over a decade and uses sources and logic to suggest that this number is low and could be as high as “20 million” or even higher.
He cites “Sarah Saldana, who runs Immigration and Custom Enforcement, the chief deportation agency and part of Homeland Security testified before Congress that the illegal population could by as high as “15 million”.”
“In 2005, a Bear Stearns study estimated the total number of illegal immigrants at 20 million.”
The annual estimate from Mr. Campenni's conservative position is $6 trillion per year to $12 trillion per year to the U.S. tax payer.
It is not without some coincidence that we see the most commonly used number associated with illegal aliens to be 11 million, the same number of persons of Mexican background “foreign born” reported.
There is no concrete determination about the number of illegal aliens in the United States, but the assumption of course is that most of that predicted number comes to the United States through Mexico. It may not be well known that nearly one in three foreign born immigrants has a university background/degree.
During the 1990's and early 2000's both the Clinton and Bush presidencies saw many immigrants from South American and elsewhere arriving in the U.S. with university degrees. This type of immigrant would be of a different standard entirely than those illegal aliens deemed to be criminals.
Donald Trump's “Wall” between the U.S. and Mexico is communication to the American people and to Mexico that he believes most of the illegal aliens are from Mexico and by inference most of the criminals he seeks to deport are from that pool of illegals.
Voters of all demographics understand to varying degrees that Donald Trump is calling Mexico out as the source of the problem and the source of mounting annual costs. The logic of calling on Mexico to pay for the “Wall” is born of the idea that Mexico created the problem and the cost and should thus pay for the solution.
In Florida this 'anti immigration' stance of Donald Trump is seen by most minorities as being directed at Mexico.
Of minority groups, African Americans and Asians are supportive of Trump's efforts. Like a majority of Americans who have worked hard and have been in the country legally for generations, most Latino/Hispanic voters understand that Trump is not directing his proposed policy at them.
After all, they know they are in the country legally. But not every illegal alien is from Mexico and this reality affects Hispanics and Latinos to some degree particularly if they are unsure of the exact aggression Trump will use to deport individuals of their background.
An emphasis on the importance of ridding the country of criminals would go a long way to calming minorities who remain worried about deportation.
Some respondents envision a stream of people being shackled and forced out of the country leaving family, friends and children behind. Not a kinder gentler America.
Donald Trump attracts most of the attention on Immigration while Hillary Clinton's position appears to be to foment fears about exactly what he would do but has not offered tangible responses of how she might handle this ongoing problem with a wide berth of opinion and science about the exact numbers associated with the problem. Does the Clinton campaign not believe any problem exists?
Colin Kaepernik's NFL protest against police brutality of African Americans garners a reasonable minority of respondents supporting his freedom of speech. Others support his freedom of speech but question his forum. Just less than half of respondents reject his actions entirely. This includes (24%) of Hillary Clinton supporters, and (73%) of Donald Trump supports.
He might be a good acquisition for the Miami Dolphins eh?
An RSR ROBBINS Poll/Survey of 1,440 eligible voters and past voters in the State of Florida conducted August 28, 2016 until September 5, 2016. The Margin of Error based on population size of voters of 3% plus or minus @ 95% confidence. M.O.E. is obtained through Eligible Voters, Voters 2012, Information provided by various demographics on ethnic background, voting tendency particularly voting trends from 2012 U.S. Presidential election.

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