Robbins SCE Research
Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US & the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Donate
RSR ROBBINS - The Platinum Standard Trump v Clinton - The Great American Divorce in the State of California - the 100 million viewer debate -Clinton's lead shrinks out west
  Sep 26, 2016

Question #1
From the following four response choices offered (only), which person do you intend to vote for President of the United States, based on your opinion of the candidates today?
Hillary Clinton/Democrat    43.6 %
Donald Trump/Republican    36.4 %
Gary Johnson/Libertarian    9.3 %
Jill Stein/Green    3.7 %
Undecided    7.2 %
Question #2
From the following 2 response choices offered (only), which person do you intend to vote for President of the United States, based on your opinion of the candidates today?
Hillary Clinton/Democrat    45.6 %
Donald Trump/Republican    37.2 %
Question #3
What is your impression of President Obama's two terms in Office from the two (only) response choices offered?
Successful    54.4 %
Unsuccessful    39.3 %
Question #4
Edward Snowden believes President Obama should pardon him for releasing documents which appeared to show that U.S. and British officials were spying on it's citizens. In your opinion should President Obama pardon Edward Snowden?
Yes    42.3 %
No    40 %
Undecided    17.5 %
Question #5
In your opinion has the Obama Administration(s) improved circumstances in America for minorities?
Yes    40.3 %
No    43.2 %
Undecided    17.5 %
Question #6
Based on your current knowledge, belief, perceptions, and opinion up to now only, – if you had to pick only one - which of the following two candidates for president is more likely to be impeached while in Office?
Hillary Clinton    49 %
Donald Trump    28 %
Question #7
JASTA is a bill that seeks to legally permit victims of the 9-11 terrorist attack to sue members of the Government of Saudi Arabia if it can be shown that Saudi Arabia played a role in the attack. Do you support this bill including provisions to freeze assets of Saudi Arabia under U.S. control?
Yes    73.4 %
No    17.2 %
Commentary
Questions 1,2 &3 offer us a baseline to other questions relating to popular support for presidential candidates in context of the two main contenders as well as all four including fringe candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. (We characterize these latter two candidates as “fringe” not to disparage their efforts or the current conspicuous support they are enjoying in this Survey as well as many mainstream public opinion polls, but rather to reflect the reality that in the past their parties {Libertarian & Green respectively have performed around 1 percent nationally during elections}).
The overarching reality that this RSR ROBBINS Survey of 2012 voters in the U.S. presidential election presents is that Hillary Clinton has a noteworthy lead over Donald Trump, but this lead is nowhere near the vote difference from the 2012 presidential election that President Obama obtained versus Governor Mitt Romney for the Republicans. This reality is supported by relatively high respondent support for the aforementioned 'fringe' candidates.
Ultimately these two fringe candidates plus Undecided respondents take away significant support from Hillary Clinton but do not take anything away from Donald Trump who may have little chance to win California, yet his chance is real and NOT non existent.
Democrat Barack Obama received 60.24% of the vote in California in 2012 with challenger Mitt Romney receiving 37.12% . Current Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton has (45.6%) popular support, while Donald Trump has (37.2%) (question 2) when they are the only two response choices offered.
As between Secretary Clinton and Mr. Trump when they are the only respondent options provided their total is (93%). When all four candidate respondents are included (question 1) the Clinton Trump total is (83%).
When four candidates are included, Secretary Clinton scores lower in support by nearly one third lower than the vote received by President Obama in 2012, while Republican challenger Donald Trump's support remains nearly the same as Mitt Romney's vote totals. Measured against Barack Obama's “success” in this RSR ROBBINS Survey (interpreted as down 10%) Hillary Clinton is behind President Obama's 'lower score' by at least (20%) and perhaps nearly (25%).
(Many Bernie Sanders supporters are not on board with the Clinton campaign in the State of California is another theory produced by these numbers).
This State of California Survey reveals the (trend/possibility) in the largest traditional Democratic state, and the largest State of the United States, that high scores from less 'popular' candidates impacts more negatively on Hillary Clinton's popular support than Donald Trump.
This trend is underscored in the State of California where Libertarian and Green candidates (Johnson and Stein) score higher support total than they do in many other polls relating to other States. Is this because so little attention has been paid to California in this election because everyone believes Secretary Clinton has a lock on it?
In the Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump match up, Secretary Clinton scores (54%) to (46%) based on Decided respondents to question 2.
President Bill Clinton achieved 51% of the vote against Senator Bob Dole in the 1996 presidential election in the State of California.
Barack Obama continues to be popular in California with Decided response choice determining his two terms in office to be “successful” equal to his 2012 total, but actual support about (9%) less of that. (*This is also be a factor of the methodology of this Survey in determining from lists corresponding to vote outcome percentages 2012 those voters who declare they are (90%) certain to vote in this election. (An estimated 4.5% of 2012 Obama/Democrat voters indicated they were not inclined to vote and were culled from lists for purposes of this Survey. Only (1%) of Republicans from 2012 were culled).
The Democrats statistically started the Survey an estimated (2.4%) handicapped from Republicans. This suggest that Hillary Clinton is far off 2012 voter outcomes, reasonably far off totals achieved by her husband Bill Clinton from California versus Kansas Senator Bob Dole – the Republican candidate who is voting or endorsing Donald Trump. (And anybody who was so poor he was delighted to get new boots to go to war in World War II – can't be all bad eh?)
Based on Decided percentage, a majority of California voters would like to see President Obama Pardon Edward Snowden. Mr. Snowden's net numbers of support for pardon is equal to Hillary Clinton's net support when all four candidates are provided as response choices. However Mr. Snowden's actual numbers in support of Pardon have a great distance yet to go to achieve a natural majority of support.
From question 1 results, support for pardoning Edward Snowden (question 4) is achieved as follows: (88%) of Jill Stein/Green support, “Pardon”; (68%) of Gary Johnson/Libertarian support, “Pardon”; (62%) of Hillary Clinton/Democrat support, “Pardon” and (19%) of Donald Trump support, “Pardon”.
In question 5 respondents are nearly split on whether or not the Obama Administration improved circumstances for minorities. (44%) of Caucasians assert that circumstances were “improved”, while (42%) assert the position that it did not improve. (46%) of African Americans say that circumstances were improved for minorities, while (45%) it had not improved. (40%) of Hispanics/Latinos said that circumstances had improved while (45%) indicate – it had not. (62%) of Asians believe circumstances have improved while (29%) say it had not.
(As a percentage of minorities Asians own relatively speaking more businesses than other minorities in the United States).
(67%) of Caucasian respondents believe Hillary Clinton is more likely to be impeached while President, while (25%) of Caucasians believe Trump is more likely to be impeached while in Office as President of the United States. (Notice).
(34%) of African American respondents choose Hillary Clinton to be impeached, while an equal number choose Donald Trump. (41%) of Hispanics choose Hillary Clinton while (46%) choose Donald Trump. (50%) of Asians believe Hillary Clinton is more likely to be impeached while (44%) select Trump
California voters overwhelmingly support the concept of a litigation against Saudi Arabia if it is found they are connected to the 9-11 terrorist attacks. (91%) of Republican support, (72%) of Democrat support, (70%) of Libertarian support, (83%) of Green Support.
Methodology: RSR ROBBINS Survey from lists of voters from 2012 election compiled internally (and not from official documents). It is estimated that 18% of list participants have moved. The net list is made to correspond (through adjustment in some cases) to 2012 vote outcome. We internally characterize these as “Likely Voters”. From this list we believe we have a baseline equivalent to the Voter turnout in the State of California for each of the two main parties. We cannot account for the near 2% of other participants. We culled “Likely Voters” to produce a net net list of “Certain Voters” who claimed to be 'at least 90%' certain they will vote in this election. The net Survey is of 1,135 (a number of net net were not included). Numbers were derived September 17-24, 2016.
The Margin of Error is claimed at 2.88% plus or minus. In other words based on question 1 and net absolute totals from this RSR ROBBINS Survey it is statistically possible that Republican Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied in California. The deficiencies in this survey include the fact that original lists may not be entirely accurate (although respondents are known and have affirmed party affiliation in other surveys), that Voters who say they are 90% certain may not be certain, while those who aren't 90% certain may simply not have wanted to take the survey or were more certain than those who said they were certain, that there is no historical evidence supporting these numbers for Libertarian or Green party support. RSR ROBBINS estimates that at much as (8 (global %) is lost to Clinton in this survey.

Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US and the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Site Map
Copyright Robbins SCE Research Inc. ©2017