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RSR ROBBINS (20th Anniversay) with Glen P. Robbins in Vancouver, Burnaby, Tri City, & Surrey ridings - Highway 1 and Trans Mountain Kinder Morgan
  May 02, 2018

Question #1
Which BC political party from these 3 choices offered to you support at this time? (Decided respondents to support: Vancouver, Burnaby, Tri City & Surrey "the city").
BC NDP    48 %
BC Liberal    35 %
BC Green    17 %
Question #2
Do you have confidence in BC’s Economy?
Yes    51 %
No    39 %
Question #3
Do you believe those scientists who assert climate change – global warming has occurred on earth in the last century and humans are likely responsible for it?
Yes    54 %
No    38 %
Question #4
Do you support the expansion of Trans Mountain – Kinder Morgan pipeline construction through Lower Mainland of British Columbia to Port of Vancouver to export Alberta crude oil to China?
Yes    34 %
No    61 %
Question #5
Of the following response choices which best reflects your perception of higher gas prices in British Columbia?
I believe oil and gas prices follow the market forces generally    33 %
I believe oil and gas prices are manipulated    51 %
Oil and gas has little impact on my day to day life    16 %
Question #6
Do you support changing the method by which British Columbians vote in provincial elections in order to more fairly allocate seats in the BC Legislature to popular vote?
Yes    50 %
No    44 %
Question #7
(Advocate) It is a statement of legal fact that BC Liberals and particularly Christy Clark had a bad relationship with BC Teachers and BC Education. This is documented in both BC Superior Court and Supreme Court of Canada decisions. The province owes the system a billion dollars and BC Teachers are known be badly underpaid compared to other provinces. Would you like to see BC Teachers paid on par with Ontario Teachers who receive 20% more at all levels of salary?
Yes    60 %
No    29 %
Question #8
Have you accepted the reality that marijuana is to be made legal in British Columbia?
Yes    71 %
No    27 %
Question #9
Is Canada & US signing the North American Free Trade Agreement a major concern to you?
Yes    28 %
No    52 %
Question #10
If 'denuclearization' occurs on the Korean Peninsula and peace and reconciliation occurs there, who, ultimately should receive the lion’s share of credit as far as you can see?
U.S. President Trump    61 %
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo    20 %
South Korean President Moon Jae-in    17 %
North Korea’s Kim Jong-un    2 %
(Undecided)    2 %
Question #11
Would you like to see the termination of the Muellar investigation in the U.S.?
Yes    21 %
No    8 %
I don’t know what that is    65 %
(Undecided)    6 %
Commentary
Overall, following best efforts to adjust for population size and gender through Vancouver City ridings, Burnaby ridings, Tri City ridings & Surrey ridings (“the ridings”), BC NDP is @ (48%) approval, BC Liberals (35%) and BC Green (17%).
(51%) of these respondents has confidence in BC’s Economy, while (39%) do not. (52%) of BC Green supporters have confidence in the BC Economy.
(54%) believe in climate change, while (39%) do not. (34%) support construction expansion of controversial Trans Mountain Kinder Morgan pipeline through the most populous regions reaching upwards >1,500,000.
The population through these ridings is more progressive in deduced party support (or the so called middle of the political spectrum is more left progressive).
The party expected to be most in favor of the pipeline, the BC Liberals, supports it to (72%), while BC Greens, growing in support in the region do not, well over (9/10). BC Greens have slightly more confidence in BC’s Economy than average > (50%).
Nearly (6/10) of these respondents believe in climate change. It is difficult to imagine ever winning public minds and hearts through this particular region for expansion of a pipeline carrying Alberta crude oil, particularly acting the bully.
Two senior levels of government made their case aggressively (Canada & Alberta), but trade threats and more were thrown in. Ultimately BC’s Premier Horgan & New Democrat Cabinet doesn’t have say in the matter – the citizenry have de facto taken this up at least through these Greater Vancouver urban centers ironically, along Highway 1.
On the other hand BC Green Leader Andrew Weaver cannot press so hard on the proportional representation question – which, the more it is discussed, the more supporters it loses because it isn’t simple, like regular voting is, but more because Horgan’s New Democrats are acting for his supporters in defending against the pipeline, now taking action to BC Court of Appeal.
(51%) of respondents are willing to believe oil and gas prices are manipulated, with (16%) claiming no impact, meaning (51/84) or (61%) of respondents vouch that manipulation in the market occurs in oil and gas.
This percentage is a damnation of the pipeline project from a clear majority of residents, because they are annoyed and more willing to permit some elasticity in their reasoning.
I believe this RSR ROBBINS poll does two things. First, it provides reinforcement and clarity to the ‘not in my backyard’ rationale possessed by a large pool of voters already predisposed to progressive thinking, and reflects a trend among the majority of this urban population to be even more progressive as this concerns the environment, particularly the clear rejection of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline project, now generally looked down upon.
(To wit: A noteworthy strain of BC Green supporters are not environmental activists by any stretch).
It tells me that B.C. respondents in this core urban region are more like those in Portland Oregon than Calgary or even Edmonton Alberta. It tells me that the real statement British Columbians are making is that it is Alberta which is the dependent on crude oil for its economy, while BC is not.
It tells me that British Columbians value their region as a world class destination for beauty and even the thought of any issue involving oil and gas the province its own coastline or that of Washington State, Oregon, or California-is enough to turn them off the pipeline. A person thinking reasonably can see how an urban centered pipeline has public relations nightmare possibilities – on a world stage watching environmental matters internationally relative to Paris and relative to U.S. President Trump.
The high gas prices link to the Kinder Morgan pipeline issue is looked at with great offence by a clear stream of British Columbians in this poll who have heard Alberta’s Premier Notley threats – and now many are adding themselves to BC Green as against “the Corporation” – there are many more BC protestors with lots of cash who don’t physically show up to protest – but who are privately cheering on protestors and aboriginals who oppose the pipeline and are willing to be arrested to carry that battle essential to public relations resistance of any political decisions under this subject matter.
A pipeline expansion to facilitate crude oil will likely always do less well in this region lest the trend of party support be pushed more to the right. But that just isn’t the case. Currently both BC NDP & BC Liberals are donating vote support to BC Green through this region.
It is a steady and constant loss of support.
A good public relations effort in support of the decision by the PM to approve the pipeline might have reached as high as (40%) (net) found in Port Coquitlam & Coquitlam. Unfortunately the proponents of the pipeline opted for threats and other.
Most noteworthy on the political front is that fleck of Vancouver BC Liberal respondents claiming (taxes and pipeline) will ruin property values. {The BC Liberal and Opposition Leader Wilkinson may have taken bait of late by BC NDP’s wily Attorney General David Eby}.
The motivation for aggressive behavior by Alberta and Kinder Morgan was received by BC respondents as arrogance based exclusively on presumed ‘paramouncy’, when, in fact, the Supreme Court of Canada has made it clear that ‘proportionality’ is the true administrative driver of the reasoning whereupon 'paramouncy' settles on scale in federal-provincial disputes (or any dispute for that matter).
I believe there is a noteworthy minority of respondents here who might have given Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain the benefit of the doubt – had the proportional case been made out by the company. Alberta’s premier may have taken the bully route because she sees an election coming in her province, but the hysterical nature underlying this aggression is not received well in BC’s largest urban area.
Bad (unsophisticated) public relations, without real regard to achieving any form of public consensus is the cause of the pipelines likely doom to ultimately fail at least to date. I would have legitimately moved to seek consent in this all important Highway 1 urban region to 42-43% and hoped for higher Undecided, not simply shoved mainstream media sponsored ad hoc polls down people’s throat.
Bad faith in politics.
The more political stick used the lower support for the pipeline project. One should never employ the stick without a bona fide crest in approval (that is real) toward 50%+.
Second, it tells me that PM Trudeau badly misread his decision in terms of proportionality of allocation of political capital, and in context of his support through the region (similar to the province as whole), relative to historical averages for federal Liberals (35% to 27%). His bump in electoral outcome in BC in 2015 federal election was a rejection of the former PM Stephen Harper, and not a lifetime achievement award for him.
The same thing occurred for PM Trudeau in Calgary Alberta, oil town, with a strong liberal minority bent and liberal mayor. If Kinder Morgan flees this pipeline debacle as it appears it might, what of Trudeau’s reputation in Alberta (and Saskatchewan).
The approval of Kinder Morgan and Trans Mountain and its ongoing pursuit will no doubt result in losses of about 8 seats in BC including many of these through this region in 2019, more than half required to reduce the Federal Liberal majority.
The PM was looking pretty good as against US President Trump when this pipeline decision was originally made by him, now Trump is king of the hill and has earned more than a few new followers, and Trudeau’s image is blemished somewhat.
His marijuana bargain with BC is A-Ok with a very clear majority of these BC respondents. Can this honestly be enough to sustain his government?
Tri City:
Port Moody Coquitlam: BC NDP down (1%) from 2017 Election Totals, BC Liberal down < (2%), BC Green up < (4%). Current support in Port Moody by party as follows: BCNDP (46.26%), BC Liberal (38.34%), BC Green (15.84%). Second choice as follows: 1/11 BC NDP=BC Green, Zero BC NDP=BC Liberal, 1/13 BC Liberal=BC NDP, Zero BC Liberal=BC Green, <1/7 BC Green=BC NDP, Zero BC Green=BC Liberal.
Port Coquitlam: BCNDP down (2%), BC Liberal down (1%), BC Green up (2%). Current support: BC NDP (53%), BC Liberal (30%), BC Green (15%). Second choice as follows: <1/10 BC NDP=BC Green, 1/25 BC NDP=BC Liberal, >1/4 BC Green=BC NDP, <1/7 BC Green=BC NDP.
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain: BC Liberal up (2%), BC NDP down (2%), BC Green up (1%). Current support: BC Liberal (46%), BC NDP (42%), BC Green (13%). Second choice as follows: > 1/50 BC NDP=BC Liberal, >1/30 BC NDP=BC Green, >1/7 BC Green=BC NDP, Zero BC Green=BC Liberal.
Coquitlam/Maillardville: BC NDP down (4%), BC Liberal up (1%), BC Green up (3%). Current support: BC NDP (47%), BC Liberal (39%), BC Green (14%). Second choice as follows: >1/50 BC NDP=BC Liberal, >1/20 BC NDP=BC Green, BC Liberal <1/20=BC Green, Zero BC Liberal=BC NDP, Zero BC Green=BC Liberal.
Summary: If an Election were called today, based on this RSR ROBBINS Mapping ®, nothing would change in terms of seats in Legislature.
Although Port Moody Coquitlam may be the obvious target for BC Liberals I believe the BC NDP are stretching their lead over BC Liberals, even if it has lost a little support.
The same thing is occurring in Coquitlam Burke Mountain with BC Liberals earning modest gains & BC NDP supporting softening somewhat.
Despite a continued good lead in Coquitlam-Maillardville and Port Coquitlam ridings for BC NDP, there is softening in both. A well known elected official supporting BCL could make this riding a problem.
Premier Horgan would have better served putting only one Cabinet Minister in this area, not two High Profile Ministries in a region whose political history somewhat schizophrenic.
Surrey:
Surrey Cloverdale: BC Liberal down (1%), BC NDP down (1%), BC Green up (2%). Current support: BC NDP (46%), BC Liberal (38%), BC Green (14%). Second choice as follows: >1/20 BCL=BCG, >1/13 BCL=BCNDP, >1/50 BCNDP=BCL, >1/50 BCNDP=BCG, <1/4 BCG=BCNDP, Zero BCG+BCL.
Surrey Fleetwood: BC NDP down (4%), BC Liberal up (3%), BC Green up (1%). Current support: BC NDP (49%), Liberal (39%), BC Green (12%). Second choice as follows: <1/8 BCNDP=BCL, 1/16 BC NDP=BCG,<1/6 BCL=BCG, >1/9 BCG=BCNDP, Zero BCG=BCL.
Surrey Green Timbers: BC NDP down (5%), BC Liberal up (2%), BC Green up (4%). Current support: BC NDP (54%), BC Liberal (35%), BC Green (11%). Second choices as follows: <1/50 BCNDP = BCL, >1/13 BC NDP=BCG, Zero BCL=BC NDP, <3/100 BCG=BCL, >1/16 BCG=BCL.
Surrey Guildford: BC NDP down (4%), BC Liberal down (2%), BC Green up (8%). Current support: BC NDP (46%), BC Liberal (36%), BC Green (18%). Second choices as follows: <1/7 BCNDP=BCL, >1/50, BCNDP=BC Green, 1/6 BCL=BCNDP, >1.6 BCL=BCNDP,(33%) BC Green=BC NDP, <1/30 BCG=BCL.
Surrey Newton: BC NDP down (3%), BC Liberal up (5%), BC Green up (4%). Current support: BC NDP (54%), BC Liberal (35%), BC Green (11%). Second choice as follows: >1/16 BCNDP to BCL, >1/8 BC NDP to BC Green, >1/20 BCL=BCNEP, 1/7 BCL=BCG, >1/9 BC Green=BCNDP, >1/8 BCG=BCL.
Surrey Panorama: BC NDP down (7%), BC Liberal up (1%), BC Green up (6%). Current support: BC NDP (44%), BC Liberal (43%), BC Green (13%). Second choice as follows: >1/7 BCNDP=BCL, >1/20 BC NDP=Green, >1/6 BC Liberal=BCG, <1/14 BCL=BCNDP,
BC New Democrats are down (3.5%) from total Surrey totals, about (7%) > Electoral Outcome 2017. BC Liberals are down > (1%) overall from total Surrey Totals, while BC Greens are up a whopping (6%) overall or about 12,000 votes. Final Outcome Support Surrey: BC NDP (42%), BC Liberal (40%), BC Green (18%).
On second choice in Surrey BC NDP are (-2%) in give and get, BC Liberals are also (-2%), while BC Greens are (+7%).
Surrey Panorama is now a tie between BC NDP MLA and BC Liberal. Other current NDP seats are no longer foregone conclusions. A high profile Green candidate could win Surrey White Rock.
On question #2 (53%) of Surrey respondents have confidence in BC’s Economy while (38%) do not. Surrey is inching toward being more progressive “every day”.
Vancouver:
Over 11 ridings BC NDP is down (1%), BC Liberals are down (4%), while BC Greens are up (5%).
In Vancouver Greens are up (3%) in Fairview riding, (10%) in Fraserview, (13%) in Hastings, & (7%) in Vancouver West End. BC NDP are down (6%) in Fairview, (+4%) in False Creek, down (4%) in Fraserview, down (9%) in Hastings, up (2%) in Kingsway, down (3%) in Mount Pleasant, up (5%) in Point Grey, up (4%) in Quadra, down (2%) in West End, up (2%) in Kensington, and down (3%) in Langara.
BC Liberals are down (6%) in Fairview, down (4%)in False Creek, down (6%) in Fraserview, down (4%) in Kensington, down (1%) in Mount Pleasant, down (6%) in Point Grey, down (5%) in Quadra, down (3%) in West End, up (1%) in Kensington & down (3%) in Langara.
The only seat at risk is False Creek, currently possessed by BC Liberal.
RSR ROBBINS proclaims the ridings registered in Vancouver ridings after adjustment provides as follows: BC NDP (52%), BC Liberal (30%) BC Green (18%).
(Forty nine percent) of respondents in Vancouver has confidence in BC’s Economy, while (41%) do not. (*Amazon announcement not fully realized in #’s-is this a Big Box argument coming-why 2023 for jobs?).
Burnaby:
Over four ridings Burnaby Deer Lake, Edmonds, Lougheed, and North, BC New Democrats are down (-2%), BC Liberals are down (1.5%), while BC Greens are up (6%).
After adjustments BC NDP (46%), BC Liberal (36%),BC Greens (18%). (Fifty percent) of ‘Burnabytonians’ have confidence in BC’s Economy, while (40%) do not.
MOEstimate: Error rate plus or minus (2%).

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