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RSR ROBBINS Our 21st Year & Official Survey of Canada -- Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, May & Bernier - Carbon Tax? How about 400,000 illegal migrants over Canada's northern border?
  Jan 11, 2019

Question #1
Leader and Party Support (Canada) (Present Worst Case Scenario for EACH LEADER & PARTY):
Justin Trudeau & Liberal Party of Canada    31.44 %
Andrew Scheer & Conservative Party of Canada    29.37 %
Jagmeet Singh & New Democratic Party of Canada    16.60 %
Maxime Bernier & (New) People’s Party of Canada    4.93 %
Elizabeth May & Green Party of Canada    2.33 %
Leader & Bloc Quebecois    2.39 %
Question #2
Leader and Party Support (Canada) (Present Best Case Scenario for EACH LEADER & PARTY):
Justin Trudeau & Liberal Party of Canada    36.16 %
Andrew Scheer & Conservative Party of Canada    34.11 %
Jagmeet Singh & New Democratic Party of Canada    18.65 %
Maxime Bernier & (New) People’s Party of Canada    5.67 %
Elizabeth May & Green Party of Canada    2.68 %
Leader & Bloc Quebecois    2.75 %
Question #3
Leader and Party Support (Canada) (Glen P. Robbins assessment of current support for EACH LEADER & PARTY):
Justin Trudeau & Liberal Party of Canada    33.8 %
Andrew Scheer & Conservative Party of Canada    31.5 %
Jagmeet Singh & New Democratic Party of Canada    17.8 %
Maxime Bernier & (New) People’s Party of Canada    5.3 %
Elizabeth May & Green Party of Canada    2.7 %
Leader & Bloc Quebecois    2.5 %
Question #4
Support Carbon Tax from federal or provincial government:
Yes    34 %
No    48 %
Question #5
Would you be willing to accept one half million illegal migrants into Canada from the United States each year?
Yes    1 %
No    81 %
Commentary
Question 1
British Columbia:
Justin Trudeau is down to (25%) from mid (30’s %) he and Liberal Party of Canada achieved in British Columbia in the 2015 federal election. At this point in time he risks losing at least a dozen seats in this Province – and may be eaten alive (thinking flesh eating here) and lose it all including any hope of achieving a majority in the Canadian House of Commons because of British Columbia.
Trudeau’s Cabinet Minister for Canada Post is exposed in Surrey – will she stay on – in Cabinet shuffle coming Monday? Is (she) aware that I paid for a signature on Canada Post registered mail to John Horgan at his constituency office in Victoria Tracking number PG382 565 415 CA –a telephone call to John Horgan’s constituency office confirms his assistant signed the Canada Post delivery pursuant to the conditions of my contract with Canada Post including the additional fee paid for said signature.
What kind of business operates like this Minister Carla Stinkthehouseout.
(BC) matters.
The Liberal brand – however construed – Federal Liberal or BC Liberal/ – (like Liberal brand in the United States) is diminishing in confidence and credibility in the eyes of the Voter, (although now Fox News (the right) is promulgating polling suggesting liberalism is on the way up (as liberals enter 2020 Democratic race).
Big blue bass sucker bait?
The provincial Conservative brand is barely audible in British Columbia. The Conservative Party of Canada extinguished a lot of political capital in BC – showing little for Reform. Kids and friends of Canadian Alliance and Harper Conservatives screwed up the brand for good. The Cummins con job in 2013 rendered the brand wholly incompetent as a provincial entity.
Politics abhors a vacuum – and combined ‘progressives’ in British Columbia are nearly (60%).
Now that’s a theoretical Wall.
(The Prime Minister worked in BC schools pre politics, but BC Voters are wondering, if, like his father Pierre Trudeau (and Eastern Canada generally) Ottawa ‘doesn’t understand B.C.’).
A similar progressive populism and grass roots movement – a construction of hybrid New Democrat and Green has been constructed in British Columbia, with groundswell support in anti Ottawa sentiment as occurred in the early 1990’s in Canada in the Reform Party.
In North Burnaby, British Columbia longtime residents are excited about the possible return of Sven Robinson to federal politics (no relations to Glen P. Robbins (my father Douglas told customers it (“Robbins”) was like the bird with a little ‘bs’).
(t)he story continues to be told of how the stench of the Chevron Refinery in the area – has been removed – thanks in large measure to efforts of Sven Robinson –
(g)reen and gay when both weren’t so popular 25 years ago?
A noteworthy thread of then NDP Reform types (1990’s) supported Sven Robinson – his return appears more a good political science calculation then any opportunism.
(Frankly, the political science coming out of the left in BC and across Canada is pretty slick – the American progressives could learn a thing or two from BC).
Time has changed the topography of grass roots movements in BC – where, now, progressive conservatives are parking their rear ends in Green support (provincially) –which continues to buoy Federal Green Party Leader Elizabeth May’s support in BC (and/or is reciprocal) – at half that of current BC Green Party support (18%).
The Trans Mountain pipeline (debacle) originated with former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative poor stewardship of the enterprise - through majority government review (no bona fide review), and {then} this ‘loser’ deal was /handed off/ (see lobbying in Canada) to Justin Trudeau who in his own unique way added a ‘sprinkle shaker’ (heartbreaker) of incompetence to Harper’s aforementioned contributions, with decisions about which pipeline would go where – but picked the most troublesome pipeline in the most populated region of BC - on an environment and economic agenda –
Voters get that math. (You have to be a genius to run a household in expensive cities like Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton)-
Trudeau may one day appear to be a genius over this pipeline (and I ain’t lyin) – but he sure does not appear that way now.
The Prime Minister has been to BC handing out all kinds of goodies – most recently in Surrey including transportation $$ along with BC Premier “Handsome” John Horgan – which now appears to be a wasted exercise - given new Surrey mayor Doug McCallum’s decision to go with Skytrain model (above grade) and not the LRT model funded by {Trudeau and Horgan}.
(This Horgan’s in bed with BC Green Leader Andrew Weaver (“coalition”) – and then in the rack with Trudeau –progressive – performs his duties in a conservative fashion)—Media has Horgan telling McCallum – no more money for you for Skytrain – from the province – has Trudeau echoing Horgan’s sentiments in one place and saying he is willing to talk about it – somewhere else – sourced on the other side of Canada (across the World almost).
Horgan’s a high quality politician – he will not be beaten easily and would win any provincial election, unless of course he loses the by election in Nanaimo to BC Liberals -
Is Justin in a better or worse position than Horgan?
I say as of right now – (74%) chance of minority government for Trudeau – {CBC and Canadian Mainstream Pollsters place Trudeau’s Liberals better than 50/50 for majority}.
I would estimate John Horgan and BC NDP would win a majority if an election were called now, and put that estimation at (74%) likelihood – for presentation of point.
Canada is a country whistling past the graveyard – what with the PTSD – derived from negotiating with U.S. over new NAFTA – “USMCA” United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement – yet to be ratified in Democratic controlled House of Representatives.
Since the U.S. Secretary of Commerce placed it’s recommendation to charge tariff steel and aluminum from Canada, placing the President with final decision and Canadian press and foreign minister essentially calling that same President a dickhead or a bully over that period –Canada has been holding its breath, —Justin Trudeau meditates –
..could he win sympathy votes from Canadians if poor economic numbers can be portrayed as a result of Trump’s tariffs. Treat Trump as Harper (with a pulse), (the former having more interest in his countries interests than the latter).
What will the Democrats do with USMCA – no one has heard a word – because of the Wall - Fence Obstacle - Barrier - Deterrence - Protection Structure attached to the ground and going upward in the shape of a wall…Canada doesn’t want illegal migrants coming over the northern border.
Canada has had issues with illegal migrants coming over its borders – not 400,000 as the question posits (as de minimus to U.S. Border Security Crisis) – is there no solution to U.S. border security – add in discussion of ‘illegals’ (Montreal Quebec, Richmond (Vancouver) Canada obtaining flights into Canada – birth tourism – go from Montreal (Trudeau’s hometown) and sneak into U.S. from the north.
Trust me when I inform you that Surrey mayor McCallum will want to continue to work the massive Sikh community there/—locked and loaded to support Singh - and if and when Jimmy “Macho Man” and martial arts expert Singh takes (45%) of the vote in South Burnaby in the upcoming by election.
(You can read every report, every legal case, and every academic paper in the world but at the end of the day I want to see someone in front of the lens—Jagmeet has it)…his national numbers will explode over (20%)-to every other leader and parties detriment, most particularly Trudeau’s Liberals ---Trudeau’s delays in calling an election will – if Singh’s mission to win and obtain the Glen P. Robbins Official Big Big Winner Award at (45%) or better occurs – an orange yellow green tide will thereafter Swamp – the existing Surrey swamp of federal Liberals many whose spouses have them looking for other work).
Is every citizen in the City of Brampton Ontario reading Robbins polls now? Isn’t former Progressive Conservative Leader – Province of Ontario Patrick Brown from Brampton – and isn’t there a huge Sikh population in North America’s 77th largest city or municipality – and don’t those Sikh citizens love Patrick Brown.
And doesn’t Patrick Brown have a political revenge account receivable from Ontario Conservatives – and Andrew Scheer Conservatives? Isn’t it cold in Ontario now? Will Patrick Brown’s Sikh allies in Brampton located in and around – nearby City of Toronto.
Who pays his enemies back best? Sikhs to Sikh Jagmeet Singh – NDP Leader – his numbers in Ontario realize early (20%) support (see by election win 1st) – with ever dangerous – cool calculating – Maxime Bernier turning the taps on from the right in Ontario.
CBC and Mainstream News and Polling says Bernier is at (1.6%) a terrible underrepresentation in my opinion – just look at the 400,000 number of illegal migrants – sure big undecided or no response – but the question had underlying motive of hyperbole (to actual numbers of illegal migrants coming over the northern border)- but is ground in science of data of numbers coming over the shorter southern border with trading partners Mexico.
The likely calculation from mainstream polling is estimate of evolution of Bernier’s Peoples Party from organizational and fund raising point of view – the outcome of the by election in South Burnaby will likely serve as evidence in ongoing polling suggestions.
Part of the USMCA (not YMCA) agreement concerned higher wages for Mexican workers – in automobile sector. How could Mexico not want to participate in assuring the United States border securities inclusive of a structural impediment (aka Wall, Fence etc.) is built? Illegal migrants damage Mexican workers now – as they would southern workers.
If the Democratic House ratifies the USMCA deal – they will be ratifying the Wall and Border Security as a consequence. This is the leverage of time against Democrats – not yet considered by news.
Elizabeth May federal Green Party Leader handed Singh ---by announcing her party would not run a candidate in the South Burnaby by election --- a fat (6-10%) of total vote – so now Singh needs to perform at slightly better than Random – given three main parties in the race other than Green (Conservatives, Liberals and Singh’s New Democrats) to achieve (45%).
Subsidized Mainstream and Cable News Canada Co – has Singh a distant 3rd in the South Burnaby race and his leadership on the edge suggesting percentiles of national support for federal NDP at {16.6%} – which I suggest is the bottom range.
Mainstream suggests {36.6%} near majority territory – I suggest from my BEST CASE SCENARIO similar numbers – with most likely support for Trudeau Liberals today at under (34%) and minority territory.
(The mainstream press has drastically reduced Singh’s popularity numbers (impo) for a big before – and- after build up). (I also have federal NDP (7%) higher nationally than mainstream polling numbers offered at $1Billion per year - subsidized by tax payers CBC Television and Radio).
(Editor’s note: My father Douglas after my team had team had won a soccer game (but where the opposition scored a goal on me) – would look at me, smile and say “let it a soft one eh?” – he liked shut out stories only). (My response was papa – in every championship game – shutout – nothing for the opposition against me, zero, goose egg, cold like a killer – after which he would always smile and give me a ‘hearty handclasp’ or ‘perhaps a nod’ or ‘perhaps ignore the response altogether’).
(Editor’s note: My mother Rita after I failed to win a book award for academic excellence that all of my other six brothers and sisters won each and every year, looked at me and said – ‘do not let this happen again’…(it did but..))
Anyhow that’s Old(e) School Canadian – when merit mattered. The olde Canadian version – of famous Green Bay Packer Coach Vice Lombardi “winning isn’t everything’. Canadian version is 2nd place is no place.
“He wants to dream like a young man with the wisdom of an old man”…”you just don’t need it all”.
The point is that on merit - Jimmy Singh and Federal NDP need not only the win in South Burnaby (goes without saying) - in my books, if ‘Jimmy’ Singh does not achieve (45%) – (and the win of course), it is an underachievement.
Canada is well known as a Nanny political state inhabited by closet Libertarians-who secretly yearn for a return to merit but held back it seems by the values of the nanny state to be seen as a friend to minorities everywhere at all times – with little or less regard for regular ordinary individual citizens.
Who isn’t sick of this?
Singh needs to come out and say that even in a win of the seat – less than (45%) vote is sub standard.
This action would be similar to upstart heavyweight boxer Ali – The Greatest – then known as Cassius - telling Sonny Liston he was going to whip him – made people crazy – White Americans and Canadians= the establishment- loved Sonny Liston – a murderer – and overall nasty piece of work – who had done his time and was now the heavyweight champion – against the upstart.
This is similar to Joe Willy Namath – New York Jets Quarterback/from the upstart AFC football league – who held up forefinger indicating New York Jets were number 1, – before the game even started - saying he would beat Baltimore Colts quarterbacked then by the best in the business Johnny Unitus – and then proceeded to win the Super Bowl as he had predicted.
This is similar to Glen P. Robbins predicting a Trump win in 2020 – two years in advance against some claims to the contrary and after nailing down Obama predictions ---2008 v Clinton, 2008 v McCain, 2012 v Romney – oh 2004 Bush v Kerry, 2006 Harper v Paul Martin -) when algorithms and instinct equal determinism.
A progressive does not need to speak like a poet or a protestor brick in hand each and every time. Steppenwolf had another hit (other) than Born to Be Wild or – Magic Carpet Ride (For Lady's Only). A progressive can move forward on merit no - excuses and pointing fingers at everyone else-.
If the NDP wins the provincial by election for this January 2019 in Nanaimo – with candidate former NDP MP Malcolmson- lines of communication – campaign symmetry in the same fashion as the BC Liberal – BC Reform – BC Liberal – Canadian Alliance (former Reform) – and then BC Liberal-federal Conservative marriage – {culminating in the disturbing political marriage of former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper to BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark – and the resultant political failures of them each in 2015 and 2017} –and therein - NDP fortunes in taking control of politics in British Columbia from both senior levels of government – particularly in a 2019 federal minority government which I assert today is a (72%) probability-
-Will ascend.
(Let me write this like mainstream press): Trudeau may, might, could, its plausible, pig dog fridge – sort of facts – anonymous – sources say good bye to the 17 seats – he has in BC – (news travels fast on the internet). (Trudeau up in Kamloops where British Columbians must drive to – for lottery ticket administration of legal marijuana sales) – (NB to BC NDP – using all of that gas to drive to Kamloops – would necessitate the purchase of a bushel of pot in Kamloops not legal – for carrying).
Maxime Bernier’s New People’s Party of Canada organizational base in BC is not known to me. Bernier’s base is Quebec – (more about that later) – he has (8%) of 2015 Voters ready to support him in 2019 - BC. Mad Max – a Libertarian’s dream candidate – has a candidate announced for the South Burnaby riding – who is thick with controversy who main issue in the news is opposition to teaching young people in public schools about different types of sexual or gender transgender orientation fearing and unnatural response to the ‘influence’ from young impressionable people.
If Bernier achieves (6%) or better –he will do so by sucking all of the Kohlberg 5 Moralist vote out of the Conservative side of the ledger–whilst (simultaneously) denying his South Burnaby candidate is by definition of the issue she is attached to (gender identity education in public schools) – a moralist – (not of more pure Libertarian status (as the Good Lord might have wanted) - and while Elizabeth May’s decision not to run a candidate in South Burnaby gives (8%) tilt to Singh over her traditional (often green) friend Justin Trudeau.
Or would Bernier say this wasn’t true GPR may be the best pollster in the World/but doesn't understand Kohlberg fully – his candidate merely believes that gender identify issues ought not part of the public education system curriculum? Like a Libertarian - with moralist opportunity.
Elizabeth May (married and looking like she is in another place than politics (uhhh the white light) – congratulations to her) – will not run a candidate against Singh who the Conservatives have labeled the “Green Giant” – asserting he is more worried about environmental issues than working people – a slight with under current given the known work ethic of the Sikh community.
Will all Sikhs everywhere in BC – across Canada join Singh and break away from Liberals and Conservatives?
What will happen to the political influence of the BC Hindi population – will it NOW become irrelevant and fragment and disperse among many parties – lost, in search of a home?
Alberta:
If you are person who cultivates a life style loaded with high pressure – it is politics – Rachel Notley Premier of Alberta could write a book on the subject.
‘The’ neo feminist – Notley offers her public service on the basis of merit, doesn’t feed off using her gender or other to seek benefit of public sympathy - she gives her best – all of the time – the millstone around her neck called Trans Mountain pipeline - carved for her by Stephen Harper and opposition leader of United Conservative Party (Alberta’s apparent new version of grassroots circa 2018) Jason Kenney – (who is expected to beat Notley in an upcoming provincial election) –
&
will grow
to 5 times its present ‘Notley size’ if Kenney wins – British Columbians won’t extend any easy courtesy to Kenney you best understand that now. ( See poet ee cummings “red wheelbarrow” for clarification).
this through further/.Alberta may want to think
Trudeau has poured his heart out to Alberta like a man who knows his woman is leaving him and if he isn’t perfect there isn’t another chance – (some say he isn’t singing loud enough) – but I could feel his pain for Alberta. Poor buggers carve out 10-15% GDP per person higher than Canadian average – a lifestyle the envy of any western democracy – have made no modifications to dependence on oil – when the conversation about the need to move off oil – has been around for some time.
Trudeau is really trying – but you cannot be in two places in once.
Ia Trudeau really trying?
I am less than sympathetic to Alberta or Trudeau – Canadians seem disconnected from this issue – which media promotes as end all be all.
Trudeau is off (7%) @ (18%) now. Trudeau’s offset is that he is a much better politician than the fellow who beat Harper – so – he is capable of big enough things.
BC /Alberta
If these ‘visions’ continue to appear (See A Christmas Carol) the federal NDP and provincial NDP – in British Columbia could manage power in British Columbia for 10 years. What if Notley scores a 2nd NDP win in Conservative Alberta? Difficult as it is to imagine – a deal of some type including Green – and aboriginals to the extent the Federal Court decision demands (and the world dancing to a faster pace)- may, might, could be necessary for the ‘greater good’.
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is all in with home grown boy Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer a rocket at (53%) – can lone Liberal – stalwart Ralph Goodale hold his seat? Poll Goodale’s riding – tell you what you need to know in Saskatchewan.
Scheer is less impressive next door in Manitoba (29%) to Trudeau’s (31%). With Max Bernier’s New People’s Party of Canada averaging (4.5%) in Saskatchewan – and Elizabeth May not registering in either province – Singh’s (20%) average has to be looked at seriously.
Ontario:
I have Trudeau down (9%) in support to (36%) in Ontario – a loss of nearly (3.5%) Nationally because Ontario holds population total in the high (36… %) (National). Some of the run up rural vote in Ontario that went Liberal is NOW going New Democrat – spreading into rural suburban and some city. In context Scheer holds (34%) support in Ontario – similar to Harper Conservative’s Electoral achievement in 2015 [35%]. Singh is cruising along at (17%) – with May and Greens (2%) – down sharply in Ontario.
Quebec:
Quebec is going to be wild during the 2019 Federal Election. Like a town filled with bikers, cowboys and rockers – (wait wasn’t that Merritt BC – love it) Trudeau Liberals are down to (32%) support – a loss of (10%) from 2015 – Scheer Conservatives – like in Ontario – are Harper similar at (18%) – with Jagmeet Singh and NDP at (14%) down (2.5%) (Nationally) from the 2015 general election.
If Singh is undeniably and unequivocally a big winner in South Burnaby – and his win is also supported by a BC NDP win with (former) federal NDP MP Malcolmson – and with former South Burnaby MP Kennedy Stewart now the mayor of Vancouver – as Jeff Lynne (ELO) would say – ‘we are heading for a show down’ in BC – of ‘Trumpian’ proportion- Singh fluent in French - flies into Quebec – Montreal---while Bernier’s forces squeeze the city from the north and northeast.
BC Green taking a pounding across the country are at (1%) in Quebec - with Bloc Quebecois down to (12%). Maxime Bernier and New People’s Party score (12%) in Quebec – his home base – taking from Liberals – Greens – Bloc Quebecois – against a migration of basis points of voters from one party to another.
There is chatter --- pitter patter that business guru and one of my and my daughter Kellie’s favourites on Shark Tank (an addiction like any other) Kevin O’Leary – former Conservative candidate may run as a candidate for People’s Party of Canada –(I would prefer to pay him $5 million a year and points ---/the Croat gets part EU and Russia rights – view to $1 Billion IPO).
(GPR is not a registered lobbyist or promoter) more a Colonel Tom Parker – meets Ed Sullivan, Elvis, the Beatles and Rolling Stones – Trump styled promoter).
(Imagine Bruce Allen with charisma).
Atlantic Provinces
Trudeau scored in the mid [50’s] in Atlantic Provinces – as high as 60th percentile in Newfoundland and Labrador – real overkill on getting rid of Stephen Harper and Peter McKay. Trudeau Liberals are down to (42%) – a loss of well over (1%) (Nationally). Scheer is up to (27%) from high teen’s leavings Harper left him, and Singh is at (19%).
Question 2:
“Yes” to Carbon Tax: BC (43%), Alberta (19%), Saskatchewan (9%), Manitoba (41%), Ontario (37%), Quebec (44%), Atlantic Provinces (38%). “No” to Carbon Tax: BC (45%), Alberta (64%), Saskatchewan (75%), Manitoba (45%), Ontario (42%), Quebec (42%), Atlantic Provinces (46%).
Question 3
“Yes” BC (0%), Alberta (0%), Saskatchewan (0%), Manitoba (3%), Ontario (2%), Quebec (0%), Atlantic Provinces (0%). “No” BC (76%), Alberta (92%), Saskatchewan (96%), Manitoba (84%), Ontario (71%), Quebec (80%), Atlantic Provinces (93%).
-30-
GPR
Margin of Error Estimate -(2%)

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