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ROBBINS throws a bulls-eye predicting Port Moody Westwood-and the New Westminster-Coquitlam recount exactly
  Jun 03, 2004

A random telephone survey of 244 residents in the federal constituency of New Westminster Coquitlam and Port Moody Westwood Port Coquitlam. This survey was conducted between June 2 to 4, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.30%, 18 times out of 20 @ 98% competency. All respondents told us they were old enough to vote, voted in the last federal election, and intended to vote again in this federal election.

Question #1
If an election were held tomorrow for which party and party leader would you cast your vote?
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party    35.7 %
Paul Martin and federal Liberal party    29.1 %
Jack Layton and NDP    30. %
Question #2
If a provincial election was held tomorrow for which leader and party would you cast your vote?
Carol James and NDP    43.90 %
Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals    33.20 %
Other/Undecided    23. %
Question #3
whom, if anyone at all, do you blame for any deficiencies in BC's Health Care system?
Gordon Campbell who closes Hospitals and creates labour unrest40.06    40.06 %
Paul Martin who as finance minister cut transfers to provinces    36.50 %
Neither Gordon Campbell nor Paul Martin are to blame    20.9 %
Question #4
If you discovered that your MLA or MP who you last voted for, had lied or misrepresented information to you about their personal qualifications, or had induced you to vote for them by making false or misleading campaign promises, would that automatically compel you to vote for another candidate the next time around?
Yes    72.20 %
No    27.50 %
Commentary
Respondents are more difficult to obtain during an election in micro polls such as this one. They are being telephoned by party volunteers to determine their level of support for various parties. This provides the pollster with a better understanding of where the political support is, because the respondents are aware there is an election, and they are beginning to seriously work out which party and leader they will choose to support.
Speculation that there may be a minority government in Canada is making this election more interesting to voters in this survey. They sense that their vote could make a difference. This should ameliorate some of the democratic deficit that Paul Martin has alluded to, however as this survey suggests, that deficit will likely be balanced at his expense.
Incumbant James Moore in Port Moody Westwood Po Co will ratain his seat. Not only is he in the high 30's in this survey, but also equal numbers of women and men in this survey support him.
New Westminster Coquitlam is up for grabs and will go to the wire.
Carole James continues to make the case that she and her NDP party will form the next government in British Columbia, and that despite hopes of a comeback for Gordon Campbell, he is likely finished.
Christy Clark who is the MLA for Port Moody Westwood has been past education minister with the BC Liberal government. Her own education resume is suspect and her family ties to PM Paul Martin, and their collective proximity to the BC Rail debacle all add up to an apt comment form one respondent who referred to liberals generally as "a bunch of frauds and phonies".

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