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The Fantastic Foresight of former BC Premier Bill Vander Zalm
  Jul 11, 2005

Pool of respondents into merged poll- A random survey of 325 Reform, Canadian Alliance, and Conservative ‘voters and supporters’ merged from various ‘lists’ into one central list for the purposes of this poll. This survey was conducted between June 29 and July 7, 2005 features a margin of error of 2.15%, 19 times out of 20 @ the 99% competency level. Methodology- Respondents for the ‘pool of potential respondents’ were randomly selected and identified through the polling questions. Responses were averaged (mean and median) for each question and a final outcome was produced. The margin of error is the sum of all outcomes for each individual question calculated per question by taking the average of the median and mean average for that question and calculating the deviation (high and low) from that average and then dividing that total by the total of the numbers used. Margins of error from each question are then added together, a median and mean average is obtained and then an average of those two numbers is used and rounded to a ‘whole’ to two decimal points.

Question #1
Have you ever been either a member or a supporter of the Reform Party of Canada?
Yes    72 %
No    28 %
Question #2
Have you ever been either a member or a supporter of the Canadian Alliance Party of Canada?
Yes    76 %
No    24 %
Question #3
Have you ever been either a member or a supporter of the Conservative Party of Canada?
Yes    87 %
No    13 %
Question #4
Are you currently either a member or a supporter of the Conservative Party of Canada
Yes    83 %
No    15 %
Undecided    02 %
Question #5
How “religious” would you say that you were?
Very religious    22 %
Somewhat religious    21 %
I do not practice religion but I believe in God    34 %
I am neither religious nor do I believe in God    15 %
Refuse to answer    08 %
Question #6
Did you vote in the last BC provincial election in May 2005?
Yes    48 %
No    43 %
Won't Answer    09 %
Question #7
For which provincial party did you cast your ballot in the May 2005 BC Provincial Election (only those who answered ‘Yes’ in Question #6)
BC Liberals    61 %
BC NDP    13 %
Other    14 %
Won't Answer    12 %
Question #8
In your opinion should (as the press have recently suggested), Stephen Harper step down as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?
Yes    13 %
No    87 %
Question #9
Do you agree or disagree with the recent legalization of same-sex marriage?
Agree    17 %
Disagree    87 %
Question #10
In your opinion should Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada help to initiate the proper formation of a Conservative Party in British Columbia?
Yes    86 %
No    08 %
Undecided    06 %
Commentary
Commentary from Bill Vander Zalm (former Premier of British Columbia) A majority of respondents from this poll support the current Conservative Party of Canada and its leader Stephen Harper. Generally speaking, support from The (former) Reform Party of Canada and The (former) Canadian Alliance Party of Canada has transferred over to the new Conservative Party of Canada. In addition, the Conservative Party of Canada has added new blood since its inception as a new federal political party.
A Super majority of respondents feel a sense of sympathy for Stephen Harper over his recent unfair ‘treatment’ by the eastern establishment media. Negative comments about the party and its leader, by the results of this poll, appear to be having the opposite effect on conservatives in British Columbia then the liberal media might have otherwise anticipated.
This poll reveals that Stephen Harper’s support cuts across all lines of conservatives. These respondents have supported the Conservative Party of Canada in the past, support it now, and will likely support it in the future.
A majority of British Columbia’s conservatives are either (I) very religious; (II) somewhat religious; or (III) believe in God. The majority of these respondents PLUS a significant number of respondents who are NOT religious and DO NOT believe in God are also against the recent legalization of same sex marriage in Canada.
Former federal Reform and Canadian Alliance member or supporters were more inclined NOT to vote in the last provincial election then those who are past and current Conservative Party supporters. However, a Majority of all conservatives want a provincial party of their own and are hard pressed to understand why the Federal Conservative Party and its Leader Stephen Harper has neglected fulfilling this party objective.
With the Bloc Quebecois likely to take most of Quebec’s seats in the next federal election, it is likely that the next general federal election will be a very close race between the federal Liberals and Conservatives. BC has a diverse electorate and a number of seats particularly in the suburban areas of the province will be up for grabs. The federal Conservatives could win as many as 25 seats and as few as 17 (ROBBINS Sce Research). This time, success or failure in British Columbia could decide whether Stephen Harper becomes Prime Minister or not.
Bill Vander Zalm (Former Premier of The Province of British Columbia)

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