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BC Liberal support plummets with view to general federal election
  Apr 19, 2007

A random telephone sample of 840 respondents between April 12-18, 2007 in the lower mainland of British Columbia. This ROBBINS poll features a margin of error of 3.55%, 19 times out of 20 @95% competency (owing to instrinsic question). This ROBBINS poll was paid for by Glen P. Robbins and Associates, ROBBINS MediaWorks, and Jim Van Rassel, proprietor of New Trend Optical (604) 942-9300; (604) 328-5398. Mr. Van Rassel is a member of the Conservative Party of Canada.

Question #1
In your opinion, which of the following events troubles you the most?
An elected official charged with sexual harassment    18 %
An elected official charged and convicted of drunk driving double the legal limit    20 %
I find both acts equally troubling    62 %
Question #2
In your opinion which act offends you the most?
An elected official politically convicted of purchasing property for financial gain with inside information    22 %
An elected official official charged with criminal sexual harassment    20 %
I find both acts equally offensive    58 %
Question #3
Which federal provincial combination do you most prefer after the next general federal election?
A bare Conservative majority with a bare BC NDP majority    40 %
A bare federal Conservative majority with a bare BC Liberal majority    42 %
Question #4
In your opinion should taxpayer's continue to subsidize the Chamber of Commerce in their community?
Yes    05 %
No    95 %
Commentary
Observations: An elected official charged with (criminal) (Q#2) sexual harassment, another charged with drunk driving- double the legal limit- and a third politically guilty of making land purchases with 'inside information' are equally troubling/offensive to right thinking respondents in this ROBBINS poll.
BC NDP and BC Liberals are tied in terms of respondent perception of who they would like in office (next) with Conservatives, should the latter party win a majority in the next House of Commons, which many (of the better) analysts predict. Respondents are stunned that the local Chamber of Commerce has their hand out for municipal and city monies. Very few are aware that this practice 'continues'.
Commentary: Drinking driving is slightly more 'troubling' than is (criminal) sexual harassment to lower mainland British Columbians. The number ascribed to an offense similar to Gordon Campbell's drunk driving charge might have been higher yet, had many respondents decided not to make that selection based on the fact that the Premier didn't resign and seemed to have 'gotten away' with a troubling indiscretion (and thus selected the more current charge of "c" representing BOTH).
The 'insider trading' property purchase was more offensive to respondents than "criminal" sexual harassment charges because respondents accepted the premise that the property purchase was identified and the culprit was seen as 'politically guilty', whereas the other 'elected official' was not convicted, even though the convictions are contemplated in two different ways, one relates to the courts, the other to this ROBBINS court of public opinion.
The BC Liberals dropped signifant support from the recent Ipsos poll reflecting 49% support when matched with a bare Conservative majority, (a majority nonetheless), and compared to a BC NDP majority. We had some difficulty dealing with 49% support based on 17% high approval rating. Also overall approval was allegedly 53% in the Ipsos poll, and a corresponding 49% support underlying that number is much to high a correlation when the mid 80's correlation would have been more likely. Low 'high' approval combined with (in our opinion) overly optimistic approval to voter support, PLUS cavorting with terrorists, and more attention being paid to federal politics or hockey, make the BC Liberal numbers (combined with Conservative bare majority) far more likely a scenario. One prevailing tactic from mainstream pollsters is to inflate party support in advance of potential bad news, so that a drop of a certain percentage will not hurt the party, but simply put them back to where they were originally. Campbell's backers and friends in the media will never reflect numbers less than 40% because that will be the death of him (even though we think he is headed for nothing but trouble) with Olympic overspending, over dependence on real estate to reflect a booming economy, which may not be quite as rosey as they might like us to believe. One looks at some polls with a jaundiced eye when reporters refer to the polling firm as "a very good one". (Me thinks the lady doth protest too much).
To be clear, we were suspect of the timing of the release of the Ipsos numbers and the overall press piling on with 'the campaign'. It's fundraising time for the BC Liberal Party, which the mainstream press is happy to support as they will benefit from the largesse as well. Frankly, we don't believe these numbers to be a fair depiction of reality. The numbers in the Ipsos poll appear to be a depiction of support from business rather than the public. Given ROBBINS estimates that between 50,000 and 70,000 'different' British Columbians have at one time or another either been delivered one of our polls, or have attended to our site, and the fact that media conglomerates are desperate to make further acquisitions, which DO NOT include print medium, AND the rise to over 30% of British Columbians obtaining their political news from the Internet, gives ROBBINS a terrific ability to convey our version of public opinion to a wider mass appeal than many are aware.
In any event, it is clear from this ROBBINS poll that a Conservative majority federally will change the political landscape in BC politics.
Since the Ipsos poll ended April 10, 2007, the Premier was seen at a parade of some known terrorists. His explanation for the same when confronted was so offhand, that is is 'stunning' that (most) of the mainstream press ignored it (likely on purpose). Considering that this entire matter of national security has been the recent subject of acrimonious debate in the federal House of Commons, for many in the BC press to have ignored this was irresponsible, and yet another sign (at this time each year when the BC Liberals have their fund raising), that the press has a difficult time maintaining any reasoned impartiality.
BC NDP insiders are quietly calling the recent Ipsos poll an artifact, and also don't believe the numbers.
Here's what we think the objective is for the 'bump' in other polls inconsistent with ROBBINS numbers. First, the BC Liberals are going into major fundraising as mentioned, and want Gordon Campbell to maintain his hold over the party. He wants to be Premier for the Olympics so badly he is prepared to do anything to realize this.
Second, the BC Liberals are heading into difficulty with the BC Rail trial which is more likely to hurt them than help them. Scott Young's trial which has been moved to Port Coquitlam from Vancouver will not receive near the attention that the BC Rail trial will.
Also, the Teamster's Union has moved aggressively in the province to take over members from other Unions, and we may see a number of strikes in this province relating to railway workers who are grossly underpaid, (like many other workers in the province), who see a much different picture for similar work in Alberta than they do in allegedly 'booming' BC.
If a Conservative majority comes to fruition as many expect, than this will slowly change the impression of the BC NDP upwards, as many in that party are getting ready to indicate to Prime Minister Stephen Harper that they are ready to do business with him. The BC NDP has done much more to correct its dependence on union monies, than the BC Liberals, who have done nothing to move away from the corporate dollars.
Conservative MP's in BC have lobbied the PM hard to let their BC Liberal compatriats take another kick at the fundraising 'can', knowing full well federal accountability laws being pursued by the Conservatives will not reconcile well with the BC Liberals corporate dollars addiction. This is a game of chicken the BC Liberals cannot afford to play with Stephen Harper if he forms a majority, and once again raises the issue of why the Conservative MP's in BC have not properly taken care of business. Politics in this province for all of these reasons/examples is desperately incredible and looks more like wrestling than anything akin to reality.
It is unfortunate in our minds that true public opinion has to be sujected to the whimsy's of special interests needs, including the media, but this ROBBINS poll shall foretell future political events and changes to the political landscape as we have always done, amidst the noise and confusion of other agendas.
The Chamber of Commerce receives approximately $500,000 in hand outs, fees for services, or grants from various municipalities and cities. Jill Cook from the Tri-City Chamber of Commerce assures ROBBINS that the 'bills' they submit to city hall are approved by city hall and reflect a series of valuable services.
The City of Coquitlam provides $27,000 + to the City Chamber, PoCo provides $11,000 +, and Port Moody city hall has become so far entrenced in a defensive mode to consider returning calls.
Surrey city hall pays out only $40,000 to the Surrey Board of Trade, and Chamber of Commerce in Cloverdale, and Surrey White/Rock. These payments are constituted as a grant. Richmond and Vancouver pay closer a 'head tax' of closer to 25 cents per citizen, much higher than the 16 cent 'head tax' charged elsewhere in the lower mainland. When asked why these amounts of money were paid, most city workers could not answer whether at the clerk's office, finance, or accounts receivables. When ROBBINS jokingly suggested to one city worker that the payments "remind me a little of mafia protection payments", the employee laughed and answered "Yea sort of".
The Gordon Campbell BC Liberal government likes to claim the market mechanism as their calling card to success, however their friends in business, in this case the Chamber of Commerce look more like a union operation than the unions themselves do, considering the fact that some city employees suggested that one of the services provided was the allocation of city contracts to members in the Chamber. Cozy baby, really cozy.
Why isn't local MP James Moore, and his 'erstwhile conservative friends' like Harry Bloy and Richard Stewart, (not to mention the Canadian Taxpayer's Federation) speaking out against this practice which could reflect upwards of $5,000,000.00 of taxpayer dollars nationally from allegedly bare city cupboards, with exorbitant tax increases being proposed simultaneously? Are these taxes going toward bona fide municipal and city services or are they being allocated to other groups and organizations like the Chamber of Commerce which should properly reflect the business image they work so hard to make us believe, and through their membership dues which start out at $210 PLUS dollars for 1-5 employees?

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