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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics March 16, 2004
  Mar 16, 2004

A combined computer and random telephone survey of 2,250 respondents throughout designated areas of British Columbia, Manitoba, and Ontario between March 10-16, 2004. The survey is adjusted for population and based on voter participation in each province relative to registered voters in the last federal election, and features a margin of error of 3.2%, 18 times out of 20 @ 97% competency.

Question #1
Considering the recent sponsorship scandals involving the federal government, and a general sense of voter discontent at all levels of government, would you be more inclined to vote for a candidate with no political experience whatsoever, simply to take a fresh step?
    %
Yes    37.38 %
No    61.55 %
Question #2
In your opinion, can an individual who has run a very large multinational corporation make a successful transition to become political leader of a country, sufficient to do a capable job?
Yes-52.80%; No-46.44%     %
Question #3
What is the liklihood that you would vote for Belinda Stronach for Prime Minister, to replace Paul Martin and the federal Liberal party?
Likely    19.02 %
Somewhat likely    28.00 %
Not Likely    53.02 %
Question #4
If a federal election were held two weeks from today, which one of the following leaders and their party would you most prefer?
A. Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada-29.64%; B. Paul Martin and Liberal Party of Canada-39.20%; C. Jack Layton and New Democratic Party-21.82% D. None of these-5.60%; E. I don't know-3.74%     %
Commentary
The recent ad scandals in Quebec and general voter discontent with all politicians, reduces the value that voters are placing on experience in politics (62%). The fact that a person can run a large multinational corporation ameliorates the need to have political experience at the top (52%).
Stephen Harper may have most of the support of the Conservative Party membership, but he can't win Prime Minister, and isn't likely to force a minority government following the anticipated federal election in spring 2004.
For the new Conservative Party of Canada to achieve success, it will ultimately have to focus on electability and not sentiment. Mr. Harper is a known quantity. He will do well as Conservative leader, even increase seat totals for the new party, but he will have to struggle to force a minority government. This is largely due to the fact that he cannnot conquer Ontario, and certainly not Quebec. Ms. Stronach as a newcomer is an unknown quantity, but in terms of women, NDP swing voters, discouraged liberals, neo-conservatives and progressive conservatives has a much more attracitve upside than downside.

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