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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics June 29, 2007
  Jun 29, 2007

This is a random telephone sampling of 1,250 Canadians between June 22-27, 2007. Respondents were called in the following provinces: BC (450), Alberta (120), Sask (50), Manitoba (50), Ontario (400), Quebec (120), Atlantic Provinces (60).
This ROBBINS poll features a margin of error of 2.35%, 19 times out of 20 @99% competency/confidence. This poll was sponsored by ROBBINS, Jim Van Rassel (604) 328-5398, and a third party who choose anonimity.

Question #1
The United Nations is desirous of having Canada extend its participation in Afghanistan past the current term ending in early 2009. Are you agreeable to extending Canada's involvement?
Yes    52 %
No    48 %
Question #2
Currently, the Canadian military operates as a conventional military force and as a participant in the development of Afghan institutions and infrastructure. Would you prefer to see Canadian tax dollars allocated to?
Defeating the Taliban    30 %
Developing Afghan institutions and infrastructure    47.5 %
I don't want to spend any money on Afghanistan    23.5 %
Question #3
Are you satisfied with the Harper Conservative government’s policy approach to solving climate change and Global Warming problems?
Yes    39 %
No    47 %
Undecided/Don't Know    14 %
Question #4
In your opinion is the Kyoto Environmental Accord adopted by European countries and others an essential part of a successful solution to solving Global Warming and climate change?
Yes    42 %
No    58 %
Question #5
In your opinion should Canada impose a tax on goods imported into Canada from countries like China which use cheap labour, ignore human rights and environmental issues?
Yes    67 %
No    33 %
Question #6
Currently, which of the following factors would most influence your voting preference insofar as federal politics is concerned?
Party Leader    36 %
Party Label    40.5 %
The local candidate    23.5 %
Question #7
Which of the following federal political leaders is your favourite? (rotated)
Stephen Harper    50.5 %
Jack Layton    19 %
Stephane Dion    17 %
Elizabeth May    04 %
Gilles Duceppe    09 %
Question #8
Which of these federal political party labels is currently your favourite? (rotated)
Conservative Party    34 %
Liberal Party    31 %
New Democrats    20 %
Green Party    6.5 %
Bloc Quebecois    08 %
Question #9
Question “A” {Entertainment}The criminal trial of Conrad Black in Chicago Illinois is ending. Is it your impression that the prosecution has proven Mr. Black’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt?
Yes    24 %
No    35 %
Don't Know/Can't Answer    41 %
Commentary
Canadians overwhelmingly support an extension to Canada's participation in Afghanistan. This extension is based primarily on 40% of budget towards military with the balance to humanitarian cause. Respectfully, given these numbers and current Defense Minister O'Connors affirmation of former US Defense Minister Rumsfeld, the PM may want to change his Defense Minister. ROBBINS likes current Conservative House Leader Van Loan for the job. Although non-descript, he is excellent in the House of Commons and can articulate a reconfigured Canadian involvement in Afghanistan.
The Conservative Green Plan is supported by around 40% of Canadians, while slightly more support Kyoto. The Conservative Green Plan has modest room to grow, while Kyoto does not.
Two-thirds of Canadians support a tax on China's export to Canada. Canadians do not see China as doing enough on humanitarian or Global Warming issues. With the 2008 summer Olympics scheduled for next year, it is obvious that Canada (Vancouver) and China both have some 'cleaning up' to do or the Olympic brand may become severely denigrated.
More Canadians are supporting party leader than is considered 'normal'. Well over one third choose leader as the basis for their support while less than one half choose party.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper is easily the most popular leader in Canada, with NDP leader Jack Layton second. The Conservative party label is a distant second to their leader, statistically tied with the Liberal label which hovers around the percentage received in the last general federal election.
The New Democrats are creeping up on the Liberals as leader Stephane Dion continues to be an albatross around the party's neck. Mainstream news and pollsters who have made millions of dollars through Liberal governments are well aware that a Harper majority will reconfigure both government and its relationship to media, the latter in our estimation grossly bias toward the Liberals.
Our ROBBINS estimation puts Stephen Harper and his party in the 42-43% range, easily a majority.
More than one half of Canadians are following Conrad Black's trial which has just ended at press time. Most Canadians don't believe the former jet setting publisher is guilty, owing in large part to the fact that they don't understand where the guilt is. Mr. Black's lawyers argued that no victims were produced and this has resonated well with Canadians who are used to seeing victims in criminal trials.
At worse, Canadians see the case as "no honour among thieves" and obvious negative reference to David Radler, Black's former partner.
Ironically, Quebec respondents supporting Conrad Black's 'innocence' are above the Canadian average. Perhaps Conrad Black's intermittent speaking to the press in French has paid dividends in Canada. A little irony is suggested here considering US President George W. Bush is coming to a summit in Quebec, and likely incoming President Hillary Clinton has her political campaign song coming from a Quebecor.

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