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ROBBINS declares BC NDP leader Carole James winner of 2009 BC election.
  Nov 27, 2007

This is a random but 'cleaned up' and targeted survey of 1,899 respondents who are 'always voters in BC general elections' or are 'generally voters'. This poll with methodology below was conducted between November 21, 2007 and November 27, 2007. It features a margin of error of less than 1%, 19.5 times out of 20 @99% competency/confidence. Jim Van Rassel (604)328-5398 paid for this poll in conjunction with others unrelated to either party who chose to remain anonymous.
Methodology (in part)
This is a random sample of British Columbian ‘voters’. The criteria of strategic calling followed four objectives. The first, to determine if respondents are old enough to vote, a requirement under BC Elections. The second to determine if the potential respondents ‘generally voted (or were likely to vote in provincial elections’ and the third to distinguish which of these respondents ‘always voted in provincial elections’. Through ‘other’ methods ROBBINS abandoned a few ‘always’ voters, and many more ‘general’ voters, who said they would NEVER vote for either the leader or the party (NDP and Liberal), but couldn’t say if they agreed or disagreed about leaders of the BC Liberals or BC NDP in questions (#’s 4 and 5) Our intention insofar as this method was concerned was to determine what actual voters thought about the two major parties as this related to issues in the news. We offered a later question to include the BC Green Party and leader. It was hypothesized that solid BC Green Party would support the choice of Never supporting (sic) either the BC Liberals or BC NDP (Q#1), but would either AGREE or DISAGREE with NEVER voting for BC Liberal leader Gordon Campbell or BC NDP leader Carole James. Although we can’t be absolutely certain of this, we believe the number for the Green Party is a fair depiction, and no long the more whimsical 16% continuously floated by mainstream news. Although the age requirement that is used in this poll is 18 (federal), the questions relating to this poll concern BC provincial politics, where the voting age is 19. The provincial election is more than one year away, which means those persons who are old enough to vote in a federal election now, will be old enough to vote (if eligible) in the general provincial election in British Columbia, to be held May 12, 2009. Secondly, ‘respondents’ are than asked if they ‘generally vote in provincial or federal elections, or would very likely vote if given the opportunity to vote’. Those respondents who answered “No” ceased to continue on as respondents. 22,680 random telephone numbers were dialed resulting in 5,400 random contacts being perfected with human beings who answered telephones presumed to be within the province of British Columbia based on information contained in White Pages Telus 2007/2008 telephone books (Published by YELLOW PAGES Group). amend: White Pages Telus 2007/2008 used for lower mainland respondents- This effort resulted in 3,004 persons/respondents willing to take our five minute survey. From the initial 3,004 respondents, 2,149 remained after the first question as to whether they ‘generally voted or would if given the opportunity’. From the net 2,149 respondents, the following question was asked: “Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?” I always vote in BC provincial elections. (43%) agreed with this statement, while (49%) disagreed, and (08%) could not answer the question. The (08%) who could not answer were than asked, why they could not answer (?) and given the following options to choose from for their response. “I was never old enough to vote”, “I did not live in BC during elections”, “I am not sure if I voted every time” “I didn’t think that was any of your business”, or “None of these”. Respondents who answered “I didn’t think that was any of your business”, or “None of these” ceased to continue in the poll. (1.4%) of the net 2,149 ‘net respondents’ were thus excluded, leaving 2,119 respondents remaining. After eliminating all other respondents as described herein including spoiled ballots (people who quit part way or other), we were left with 695 ‘always’ voters and 1,204 ‘general voters’ for a total number of 1,899 voters/respondents in this ROBBINS poll. Those who indicated that they “Always” voted who could not name the leaders and parties in the 2005 BC general election debate were designated as “General voters”.

Question #1
(Always vote)-Which of the following leaders and parties in BC politics do you currently support?
Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals    41.5 %
Carole James and BC NDP    48.1 %
I would NEVER vote for either of these leaders or parties    11.3 %
Question #2
(Generally vote)Which of the following leaders and parties in BC politics do you currently support?
Carole James and BC NDP    44.4 %
Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals    43.3 %
I would NEVER vote for either of these two parties    17.3 %
Question #3
Do you AGREE or DISAGREE with the following statement: I do NOT have absolute confidence in either the BC Liberal or BC NDP Party
Agree    37 %
Disagree    52 %
Can’t Answer    11 %
Question #4
I would NEVER vote for Gordon Campbell for Premier of the Province of British Columbia?
Agree    45 %
Disagree    37 %
Question #5
I would NEVER vote for Carole James for Premier of the Province of British Columbia?
Agree    40 %
Disagree    43 %
Question #6
I have little confidence in BC’s justice system and the courts?
Agree    55 %
Disagree    35 %
Question #7
I have little confidence in BC’s police system and police departments?
Agree    41 %
Disagree    50 %
Question #8
There is no doubt in my mind that Gordon Campbell is a good Premier of the Province?
Agree    31 %
Disagree    56 %
Question #9
There is no doubt in my mind that Carole James is a good choice for Premier of the Province?
Agree    40 %
Disagree    43 %
Question #10
Which of the following in your opinion is the BEST tool to deal with corruption charges against politicians?
an all parties committee with sweeping powers    19 %
a special prosecutor appointed by the Attorney General of BC    21 %
a public inquiry led by a former Judge    60 %
Question #11
In your opinion, is it likely, that the twinning of the Port Mann Bridge which links Surrey, Langley and the Fraser Valley to the lower mainland and Metro Vancouver is built, and following that, BC out performs California on climate change by 2 to 1?
Yes    29 %
No    71 %
Question #12
If an election were held tomorrow in British Columbia, for which leader and party would you, caste your ballot?
Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals    42.51 %
Carole James and BC NDP    45.63 %
Jane Sterk and BC Green    7.35 %
Undecided    5.03 %
Commentary
Observations/Commentary
If more dedicated voters (Always vote) comprise most of the voters in the next general provincial election in BC in May 2009, Carole James, leader of the BC NDP will win the next provincial election. If those individuals who generally vote comprise most of the voters in that election, the election will be closer; however this poll reveals that Carole James will win the popular vote.
On average, nearly one in two voters/respondents have little confidence in the courts, the justice system or BC’s police system and police, although nearly 43% of voters/respondents still have more confidence in the police system and police than they do in the justice system. This is supported by the fact that only 21% of voters/respondents in this ROBBINS poll would use a Special Prosecutor appointed by the BC Attorney Generals Office. However, it is important to note that BC’s legislature is dominated by BC Liberals and BC NDP, and thus an all party committee is likely less compelling to British Columbian voters who are familiar with the success of the Public Inquiry conducted by John Gomery.
Respondents in this poll flatly reject the idea that while the Port Mann Bridge is twinned, BC is twice as successful as California on matters of climate change. Many respondents who supported both parties scoffed at the suggestion, while those respondents who did not support Gordon Campbell (and a few who did) had much more to say on the matter.
This ROBBINS poll suggests a number of things. First of all, the BC Liberals are not way ahead of the BC NDP as other mainstream pollsters and new media continue to suggest ad nauseum. I suspect that these groups continue to do so to support their own calendar rather than to accurately reflect public opinion at a given time.
It also suggests that Premier Campbell and his BC Liberals do not appear to have control of institutions in a manner which would suggest they are doing a good job of leading the province. If there is little confidence in institutions relating to government, there is likely little confidence in the government, and this poll reflects that support for Gordon Campbell’s BC Liberals is dropping. The question which relates to twinning the bridge and BC’s climate change objectives suggests that Premier Campbell is pushing his luck with his own support.
Question #10 reflects the continued distrust of the office of BC’s Attorney General, and the lack of knowledge most voters have with all parties committees. What they do know is: The federal Liberals were dirty with Adscam (Quebec) and the Gomery Inquiry successfully dealt with that.
Glen P. Robbins

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