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The Republicans 'veiw' on the Presidency
  Feb 02, 2008

Infosource Media Services February/02/2008-This poll released at 1:15 PST A random telephone sample of 375 ‘Republican’ supporters-plus a targeted sample of 125 ‘Republican supporters’ known to us, for a total of 500 total respondents in cities and towns of population => 50,000 population between January 30th, and February 2, 2008. Commentary was initiated February 1, 2008 and was altered relative to additional information obtained thereafter. The alteration favoured support for John McCain only marginally. Numbers are adjusted to suit variables. This poll should be considered accurate within 5.55% plus or minus, @ 98% competency/confidence. It is our impression that U.S. citizens generally answer in a straightforward and truthful manner. Internally funded-distributed through Infosource Media Services.

Question #1
In your opinion, should a consumption tax be placed on items like fast food purchases in order to combat North America’s growing health epidemic obesity?
Yes    22.33 %
Question #2
Which of these following candidates for U.S President do you support?
Senator John McCain    43.664 %
Former Governor Mitt Romney    36.187 %
Former Governor Mike Huckabee    11.771 %
Congressman Ron Paul    4.275 %
None    4.431 %
Undecided    4.0 %
Question #3
On a scale of 1-10 with “10” the highest priority and “1” the lowest, how important is the issue of ‘universal health care’ to you?
2.75     %
Question #4
Which of the following candidates do you believe would best safeguard America’s strategic interests and national security?
John McCain    56.334 %
Mitt Romney    33.542 %
Mike Huckabee    8.343 %
None of these    1.234 %
Undecided    7.432 %
Question #5
Which of the following candidates do you feel would be BEST for the U.S. economy?
Mitt Romney    40.4 %
John McCain    40.9 %
Mike Huckabee    8.4 %
None of these    10.3 %
Undecided    6.54 %
Commentary
Observations:
One out of five + Republican ‘supporters’ are willing to consider a consumption tax on fast food in order to combat health problems like obesity.
John McCain has distance between himself and Mitt Romney. Have major endorsements this week propped up his lead, or are they just about to kick in?
Republicans are not interested in ‘universal health care’.
John McCain is the conspicuous choice to safeguard America, while McCain and Romney split strength on the economy.
Romney-Giuliani combination for White House equals McCain-Giuliani.
Spin
If money matters in the 2008 contest for the Democratic nomination for President than Barack Obama is looking good. Well, so is Hillary Clinton for that matter.
Why is this important to the Republicans? As this poll of Republicans suggests, John McCain is the favourite, but his popularity among all Republicans may not be sufficient to bring the bacon to his campaign, even if top (moderate) Republicans are vouching for him. Independent Joe Lieberman can get him the money, but he isn’t needed on the stage, because with McCain at the helm, Israel lives to fight another day, or 100 years, depending on whom you ask.
We have the first woman and first African-American candidates for President. Will Mitt Romney perform a ‘double-first’, and be the first Morman- (and first person) to purchase the Presidency?
Barack and Hillary, (Hillary and Barack) went from ripping each other apart, to forging a back room truce (for the time being), which combined with John Edwards departure, and underscored by massive viewing audiences for the recent debate at the Kodak Centre in Los Angeles California (and in the streets and town halls across America), and a whole lot of political ‘bling’ (and new memberships) (breath here) has given “rebirth” and a “resurrection” to Democratic Party fortunes.
(A recent ROBBINS poll prior to the debate suggested that both remaining Democrats candidates are neck and neck going into “SDT”. If Hillary wants to win ‘well’ and pave the way for a run on the White House, she needs to keep Barack in the race and assure his support follows to her before she eats him, while Barack- can and should take the win as he can get it).
John McCain has it good, but it’s far from perfect. The huge endorsements from former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Republican political giant California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger put him just over (40%) in this ROBBINS poll of Republican ‘supporters’ just prior to Super Tuesday, while nearly (37%) don’t appear to want him in the White House at all.
Worse yet, Rudy Giuliani who recently lost badly in Florida and dropped out, remains popular among Republicans for the White House, (only so long as it is for Vice-President). The larger problem for Senator McCain is that one half of Republican supporters for Giuliani’s ‘White House bid for VP’ see him there with Mitt Romney, despite the fact that Giuliani clearly endorsed John McCain. Now that’s an insurgency!
Barack and Hillary carry >90% between them, which is likely (reasonably) interchangeable. John McCain on the other hand carries nearly two thirds of Republican support, with Mitt Romney holding between 3 to 4 out of ten Republican supporters (hostage)-with Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and the ghost of Giuliani for President- Past factored out.
So far John McCain’s political fortunes appear to be more dependent on how Democratic front-runners promote him. His mugging of ‘Proconsul Romney’ has many Republicans proclaiming McCain’s greatness on foreign policy and many acknowledging his abilities on the question of the economy, but his recent approach in the last debate has some moderate Republicans a little concerned. Part of John McCain’s popularity his ‘cool charisma’ is based on the fact that he doesn’t quit no matter how many times he is counted out. These voters want to see McCain as walking softly and carrying a big stick, they don’t expect their hero to be ‘a bully’.
None of the other candidates understand war the way Senator McCain does. Yes, He was a P.O.W. tortured for many years in Viet Nam. Yes, He witnessed how badly Viet Nam veterans were treated when they came home. Yes, He bristles when someone ‘pretends’ to have a foreign policy strategy. America’s enemies see the country to be ‘soft’ and ‘vulnerable’ because of decades of perceived instant gratification.
(I currently reside in a country where government and media have helped to create a nation of men and women once ‘firm but fair’ who are now in totality ‘soft’ and ‘vulnerable’-it is a humiliating disgrace).
The American people don’t like war, it’s ugly and costly. Whether or not the U.S. got into the war for the right reasons in the first place is a matter for debate, but they are there now, and a message of ambiguity among contestants for the White House will do more harm than good. The fact that some conservative talk show hosts don’t like McCain because he attempts to do business with Democrats-‘well at the end of the day, who really gives a shit what some drug soaked pill popping ‘has been’ has to say at this point.’
(To be honest if I had risen from the politically dead as many times as John McCain has, I would probably just campaign in the nude).
The first lesson all ‘biz’nessman need to learn about politics is that business is not politics. They are completely different animals. The second is that businessmen often make lousy politicians. They bring a dogmatic approach to a job which requires an open mind and a vast understanding of all ideology. Is Mitt different? His approach to political leadership (the “CEO” of the White House) won’t attract 40% of Republican voters let alone the 51% normally expected to win, but it does make him a strong candidate for second place. Mitt’s campaign for Republican nominee could ultimately still prove to be successful, but I would not currently take that bet without odds.
Republican supporters of Mitt Romney don’t want universal health care. Those respondents who support Mr. Biz give ‘universal health care’ score its important at an average of well under two. This is affirmed by a similar score for the Romney-Giuliani combination. Although Mitt Romney’s campaign is attractive and effective, it wasn’t properly ‘gamed out’ by the professionals around him. Also, unlike Barack Obama’s message, it focuses a strategic run at the White House, a message of election strategy first, America second, while Obama puts (at least the message) of America first, and strategy second. The Clintons seem to be able to appear to fuse both objectives in a way that they dove-tail when necessary and can be separated when necessary. Perhaps this is the message America wants?
John McCain’s ultimate advantage is that few doubt his sincerity with his “America first, last, and always” approach. If recent news is true about disabled people being used as car bombers in Iraq, than it is crystal clear America’s enemy will stop at nothing to achieve their aims (whatever those are). For America to respond to this madness with any less intensity is folly.
Sometimes you need someone in the room who doesn’t think like you do.
(By contrast a small sample of Democrats scored this question of ‘universal health care in the around ‘8’-with a good smattering of 9’s and 10’s).
Mitt Romney is running the first leg of an excellent campaign to be President of the United States in 2012. If Mitt Romney can get Rudy Giuliani to run on his ticket his fortunes could change, but why confuse the issue? (See Vince Lombardi). Mitt needs to be reminded by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush that ‘sometimes it’s all right to genuflect in politics.
If it’s good enough for Mike Huckabee, it’s good enough for everyone.
McCain’s respondents are more willing to give ‘universal health care’ support in the 3’s and he and former Governor Mike Huckabee comprise most of the Republican ‘support’ for a consumption tax on fast food to combat obesity. Mike Huckabee’s (former chubby Governor turned near male model) supporters want the former Arkansas Governor for President, not Vice-President. Mike Huckabee is obviously more valuable to John McCain than he is to Mitt Romney.
“I only turn on the television to politics to watch Mike Huckabee”.
Moderates are now leading the Republican Party. Will hard line Conservatives stay at home if John McCain is the nominee or will their disdain for Hillary Clinton motivate them no matter who their nominee is? Or as one respondent said “maybe its time for Barack Obama…its overdue”. Isn’t it overdue for Hillary?
No news here, but whoever wins the middle wins the election. Romney’s recent move to the right is straight out of “Johnny Appleseed”
If and when John McCain wins the Republican nomination he will need to reach out to the Conservative base. It isn’t something I would relish doing if I was McCain but I suppose he should try. There is no candidate in the race who is John McCain’s equal on security and safety in terms of foreign policy through action. As one Republican Bush supporter said “John McCain is the only one who backed the President (George W.) Bush’s surge from the get-go, I voted for Bush I’m voting for John McCain.”
Will Senator McCain go with Mike Huckabee for VP to shore up the evangelical vote to guard against Obama’s potential run on the African American vote if he is the Democratic nominee? Will he go with the more apparent choice- former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani?
Will the Republicans do as the Democrats have done and move to unite the party, and compel McCain to bring the Republican future heir apparent Mitt Romney into the fold as VP (and inoculate against the Mormon in the White House Syndrome), float Giuliani as Attorney General, and bring Mike Huckabee onside to help in the Southeastern States particularly with evangelicals?
The knock on McCain from the plethora of ‘familiar old faces’ in the Republican Party base is his willingness (“eagerness” according to one Republican respondent) to reach across the aisle and make bi-partisan decisions.
America’s Superman can put these criticisms to bed by reaching across the table and getting bi-partisan decisions from within his own party.
For the good of the party, Mitt, Rudy and Mike----and yes you too John—DEAL.
Or no deal.
Right Arnold?
www.robbinssceresearch.com
Glen P. Robbins
Biography:
Glen P. Robbins has a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from Simon Fraser University, Metro Vancouver, Canada. He has been conducting private public opinion polls since 1998, and prior to that was an independent newspaper publisher in Metro Vancouver, Canada. He is married with two teenage daughters. Mr. Robbins has a ‘knack’ for calculating election outcomes (often) against the ‘tide’ of mainstream predictions.
*Jim Van Rassel is a member of MRIA Marketing Research and Intelligence Association/L'Association de la recherche et de l'intelligence marketing
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