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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics March 3, 2008
  Mar 03, 2008

Methodology:
A random telephone interview of 1,699 respondents throughout Canada between February 26-March 2, 2008. This poll features a margin of error of (2.189%), 19 times out of 20-99% confidence- based on ROBBINS rules of polling. This poll was sponsored by Jim Van Rassel (604)328-5398
www.robbinssceresearch.com
*Jim Van Rassel is a member of MRIA Marketing Research and Intelligence Association/L'Association de la recherche et de l'intelligence marketing

Question #1
For which party did you vote in the last federal general election?
Liberals    29.4 %
NDP    17.7 %
Conservatives    37.2 %
Bloc Quebecois    10.2 %
Green    5.7 %
Forgot who they voted for    2.8 %
Question #2
If an election were called tomorrow, for which leader and party would you caste your ballot?
NDP    16.3 %
Bloc Quebecois    8.6 %
Green    7.1 %
Liberals    26.2 %
Conservative    43 %
Question #3
Which issue of most important to you at this time?
The economy    31 %
The war in Afghanistan    15.5 %
Crime/national security    20 %
Health Care    12 %
Education    11 %
The Environment    11 %
Commentary
Observations:
Conservatives are up (15.5%) from the last federal general election in early 2006. Liberals are down (8.9%). Together the Conservatives and Liberals possess nearly (70%) of public support across Canada. This total between the Government and the Opposition is higher than it was after the general election in 2006 (67%).
Of this amount the Conservatives possessed (54%) to the Liberals (46%). Now however, the Prime Minister and his Conservative Party have two-thirds of the total support based on this ROBBINS poll. This means the Liberal Party is being devoured by both Conservatives and the Opposition parties. The NDP totals suggest that most of the Liberal efforts in and out of Parliament are really more directed at suppressing NDP, Bloc and Green totals, with the Liberals unable to properly cover their centre right flank.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper merely walked over and took this support from the Liberals for himself. New Conservative support from the Liberal Party is up in Ontario to (43%), higher in Quebec (33.5%), while the Liberal Party has fallen to (30%) in Ontario and (17%) in Quebec.
No matter how you slice it, the Conservatives are way ahead of any one of the Opposition Parties. If an election were held today, the Conservatives would easily win a majority government. (Remember ROBBINS called Obama three points ahead nationally in the U.S. Presidential election when the mainstream had Hillary Clinton ahead 12-20%).
Spin:
If threatened financially, Canadians go conservative…quick.
The recent federal budget and the numbers in this poll clearly reveal that Canadians are “happy the way things are”, in Ottawa. The Conservatives govern like they have a majority sans arrogance. The Opposition is trying to manufacture arrogance, and from time to time a little sticks to the government, but not now.
The Conservatives are making minority government attractive. This is no laughing matter for Opposition parties in Ottawa though. The ‘former longtime male liberal supporter in your cul-de-sac’ “all of these years” is attending Conservative party town hall meetings now. He has either been converted or is being converted (as we speak). Some “take their wives (sic) now”. Did he just get older? Is he simply financially more comfortable? Or are men perhaps more driven not to ‘fail’, taking a step forward in financial risk reduction? Did the Liberal government of the 1990’s simply make Canada more of a matriarch, and thus castration theory should be contemplated)
-Canadians by and large do not have the heart for entrepreneurial risk. We all want financial security. Is this middle utopia possible? Whatever the case, this typical male respondent is the main ingredient in the Conservative take-away and Liberal give-away.
All the silly mainstream stunt polling and baffling media coverage will not change the current political circumstances in Canada. (One journalist ‘back east’ indicated that the late Chuck Cadman’s family allegations about an offer to Chuck Cadman might force an election)-for unexpected reasons this may now be valid.
The budget may have been a little thin, but it was sufficiently plump for Canadians who are tired of government spending and waste. Against Stephen Harper’s Conservative history in government, the Liberal history now looks wasteful. Liberals on the Supreme Court are now hoping to bury potential indiscretions over Jean Chrétien’s Shawinigate, while friends in committee are boring us to death over Mulroney-both deals bring the Office of the Prime Minister into disrepute because of the paltry amount of money-in real terms of the situation.
Either subpoena the former Prime Minister or drop this thing.
Canadians are “concerned” about “the thought of going back to a Liberal government”; aren’t crazy about Stephane Dion, one that was never really threatened from any of the centre right parties-and as a consequence- an easy ride for the Chrétien government- in stark contrast to the fiscal prudence and lack of nationally divisive histrionics of the Harper government.
Now the priorities of the average Canadian have changed. Harper governs from just to the right of centre, staying away from divisive social issues that inflame liberals and social democrats and annoy the Libertarian- Canadian public, focusing on core issue Canadians want to deal with: the economy, the war in Afghanistan, crime, health care, education and the environment. The people want the House in order and that is what Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have done. Gomery, Mulroney/Schreiber-ok some politicians-Chretien was NOT perfect either, the people understand. Some of this is a little ‘greasy’ and it ought not to be.
Even the late Chuck Cadman’s legacy may be brought to disrepute if the ethics committee changes their pursuit of Mulroney to investigate this new improved one. I understand how this might be news, but I don’t like it for this reason-- Although I empathize with all Ms. Cadman has gone through will the death of her son and her fine husband, I feel ‘uglying’ this up politically besmirches Chuck Cadman’s memory. Please understand me—politics at any time is naturally divisive-where else is 51% the highest grade you need achieve? Chuck Cadman’s performance was 110% Jeff Healey smooth as silk. This kind of behaviour gives people hope about their leader’s integrity. I would politely ask that you abandon this-with respect.
The Opposition Liberal party needs to make the specific case of what it likes in the Budget, what it doesn’t like and reflect their efforts in the House during debate, and their responses to the media thereafter these pros and cons. So too the federal NDP and the Bloc. “Don’t just say the whole thing is wrong”-say what you think is missing-and than zero in on the stuff on the table so we can all look at it. Perhaps the new savings account is a good place to start. Now the NDP will openly criticize this new tax policy which starting in 2009 will permit $5,000 savings per year tax-free. Canadians like this new savings account program, (even if they don’t all understand it) Canadians don’t get much good news, gas is killing us, we barely save enough for holidays, the cost of housing has risen substantially and there is cause for some concern regarding our economic future.
I think Dawn Black (NDP New Westminster Coquitlam) does a very good job as a working politician. We need to take the time to look at the work of politicians like Dawn Black, much unheralded but their work is what truly makes our Parliament work.
What the NDP needs to know is poor people are forgotten-how many really poor people do NDP members come in contact with. Take you film camera and come into the downtown eastside and put it on the news-and talk about it-like we do the problems in Toronto’s poorer districts. Canada’s in the big leagues folks, who didn’t think we would get big city problems in our big cities? That’s why you need more community and social workers, and why you need to specifically train new police for tougher police work-and even more police for more community driven work. The RCMP in Canada began its efforts to better integrate women with men in the police force in 1967.
Mr. Harper-please find us some more money so we can build an RCMP training facility to work in conjunction with our existing Justice Institute in New Westminster. Think about his jointly with NDP MP Dawn Black.
NDP/Bloc-Tell us the story of the poor and the hungry certainly, but in terms of taking over Opposition, think of those Canadians right smack dab in the middle of the country think of the budget, tweak it for Quebec, BC, Atlantic Provinces, and the Prairie Provinces,-that is who you are talking to. Poor people don’t have enough to eat-they don’t care about the budget and probably don’t vote in high percentages. Don’t forget the poor, remember though- when economic times get tougher-the folks in the middle of the pack take a long hard look at their impoverished brothers and sisters-because there for the Grace of God-(however that manifests for ‘ya)-that could be them. (Have you ever watched the neighbour of a person recently murdered-in a random attack-“that could have been me” they say-openly).
To push back at Stephane Dion and the Liberals sufficient to crack them from the left as well, you must not only properly represent the poor, but also talk about things the middle class wants, and it doesn’t always have to be daycare.
Canada is a quasi socialist country. Yet, we don’t always vote that way. A misapprehension of the State of things perhaps? Yes we have those animal plaques with unicorns and lions and such, we have the Queen’s representative-but the country is controlled from Ontario and Quebec-or at least it has been-and these two provinces really have no idea about the rest of the country particularly the west is thinking. This needs to change-
We are still relying on our resources and not the skills of our people.
The tax savings plan does not begin until 2009. Canadians are so hungry for a sign from Ottawa that ‘it cares’ what ‘they think’. Even if this tax savings is a ‘pig in a poke’ it provides Canadians with the comfort that their old incremental slow and steady wins the race-is the correct path.
This is dull, but frankly let’s be honest-so are Canadians. We don’t have a history of economic flash. We still have entire provinces= where one significant business executive can be a type of benevolent dictator over the political ‘goings on’. There really isn’t a free market. We are a large country with a low taxation base. (We have higher taxes). Our system of revenue collection depends on employee source and other tax deductions. We are government, big bank, oligopolies, special interests (big banks, oligopolies) and employees. Government normally gets no further than the big banks and oligopolies for their viewpoints. Any financial policy or plan that impacts on the average Canadian, even ‘if’ the plan is only average=an above average response will be obtained. This policy from the federal budget received a ‘good’ response.
How about some higher taxes from these large corporations, particularly the monopolies and quasi monopolies? The ‘people’ don’t have the dough, the government and the large corporations possess it. Look, when you have a near monopoly, frankly you don’t have to be that good to stay in business and make a bundle-so hand it over some of the easy Pickens-U2 oil companies-
Alberta you need to give your people back their environment-I know you’re trying-but this isn’t good enough yet-eh?
Our public services deliveries are not that good-I don’t give a shit how many ornaments you emblaze. Embalm it with:-
The average person in Canada, even if they have education and other training, does not think in terms of doing ‘great things’. They look to get a job, buy a house if they can afford a down payment, and put some money away for retirement, and if someone dies
and leaves them some money, they have pretty much tapped into nirvana. But here is the deal. Politicians need to think about, not shriek about, all that goes into raising a family. Children are God’s greatest reward, but they require a great deal of work, if you want to be a successful parent. Politicians should always think in terms of these families, particularly with young children. I don’t think to say that children are our future is a matter of much debate anymore. You don’t need a national daycare certainly, but the provinces could use more money to help with raising children. The poor single unemployed mother is better off than the poor single working mother making $10-12 per hour-how does this make sense?
An overly high Canadian dollar and the possibility of NAFTA revisited have Canadians thinking more conservatively. Some don’t like NAFTA, some don’t like Americans for always threatening us. The softwood lumber deal promoted by Democrats in the U.S. left many Canadians with a very bad taste in their mouth about our best friends south of the border.
Thank you John McCain for your common sense. Whatever John McCain’s enemies say about him-and we have followed the Republican presumptive nominee for years (see our poll of great Americans), make no mistake about it-he is as solid as a rock. (Americans please note: there are no real right wing politicians in Canada-Stephen Harper’s government is comparable in policy to Bill Clinton’s Presidency-Dems please do your homework-we have).
{A little bias admitted-John McCain has been a my personal favourite U.S. politician for a long time-but that won’t affect ROBBINS numbers when we poll}
The U.S. are/is our best friend(s) folks-let’s work this out! Canadians don’t mind financial adversity from time to time-they understand life isn’t easy, it’s very cold for many months of the year throughout the country-Canadians are used to adversity. So with the Americans in a Presidential year, and a lot of discussion in that country on the economy, President Bush saying that his country is not in a recession- when many signs were pointing there, and now Canada dealing with economic realities-maybe its time to have the discussion on our future economic relationship with the United States whether it is comfortable or not. 90% of the best economists in the world will tell you that free trade is good for everyone. This may be true when you have free trade-but anytime any barriers, adjustments, or other ‘political/legal funk’ is smattered around the agreement-you no longer have free trade-you have sorta free trade-and I am not certain if that works or not? I’m not certain if our Constitution and Charter of Rights and Freedoms is working out-so like it or not-we have a few things to discuss in Canada-don’t we?
My brother Gordie and his young baby son Jacob are helped while the baby nearly died in Florida-a hospital-private-that my brother said was so unbelievable-Gordie and Jacob are thereafter sent home to (Victoria) Vancouver via private hospital jet. Two minutes after my brother confirms that he and his son land at Vancouver airport-Jeb Bush’s Chief of Staff telephones my residence and asks-“is everything all right?” Folks-Americans are cool-they aren’t perfect and neither are we-but they are cool.
Every Canadian needs to know what economic indicators mean. GDP etc. Canadians need to know how EI works, and how some economists have different opinions how Unemployment rates impact the economy, or even how some economists believe unemployment rates are misrepresented as news. Sure enough ROBBINS has shown that fundamentals like the dollar-economic growth month over month, quarter over quarter, GDP per year, trending over 5 years, savings all of these elements should become a requisite part of our discussion. We are good at boring; no matter we are also pretty good with money. More of us get ‘rich’ by paying off our homes and having someone leave us an inheritance than in nearly any other G* country. If we are going to be dull and conservative with our money, and there is no shame in this, let’s educate everyone.
I see grade 7 children all across Canada going into preliminary economics, philosophy, political science, literature, and all forms of mathematics and sciences. To solve the world’s problems and we can, we must have the next generation of young people the best educated, the best trained, AND the most compassionate. We need money to accomplish this. We had better make sure our tax base remains strong. So let’s be honest on the account of political things- “going forward”. Although Liberal leader Stephane Dion revealed his diplomatic abilities negotiating with the Prime Minister on Afghanistan- Mr. Dion appears to have expended most of his political capital fending off the NDP’s Jack Layton, or keeping the country from the available blame for forcing an election, and this is why he doesn’t want one, and will support the government again.
The Bloc used to support the Conservatives, now the Liberals live on life support offered by Conservatives-however the Liberal flanks are being eroded by both government and opposition parties as they presently ‘kneel at the teet of Conservative political dominance’.
The Liberal Senate is passing the Conservative crime bill-the public wants a bi-partisan conclusion to Afghanistan, wants 9-11 work done on national security-more money for police etc., is concerned about health care, particularly with all the talk about universal health care in the United States, wants Canada to be the most well educated people on the planet, and continues to show modest support for getting on with the environment.
The problem right now is the current Liberal Opposition does not have credibility with the people. Ignatieff may-but Dion does not.
Remember what ROBBINS has been saying, economic slow-down equals less interest in Global Warming. Poor people will takeover as the worldwide interest- over Global Warming, at least for awhile. It really is disgraceful that with all we have we would leave people behind like this. Just look at Vancouver’s downtown eastside.
Stephen Harper needs to take passive aggressive Stephane Dion out to the political woodshed and make him and his bully liberal friends understand what the ‘art’ of being a person in politics is all about-not whining, sniveling, but being a leader for all. Act with courage-fake it if you must!
‘Stephen’, Call an election-tell the public you want a majority mandate-they will understand.
Glen P. Robbins (604) 942-3757

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