Poll: Metro Victoria poll reveals BC NDP and BC Green winners.

Methodology: A random telephone sample of 1,050 households in Metro Victoria between April 12-21, 2008. This ROBBINS poll features a margin of error of 3.13%, 19 times out of 20 at 95% plus/plus confidence and was conducted on a best efforts basis, adjusted for population and gender in the following regions of Metro Victoria constituted under BC Elections as official ridings: Esquimalt Metchosin-Oak Bay Gordon Head-Saanich and the Islands-Saanich South-Victoria Beacon Hill and Victoria Hillside. ROBBINS proprietorial AND standard techniques for calculating deviations mean and median ranges have been employed to determine outcomes.

Question #1

Which British Columbia political leader and party do you support? (choices rotated)

Carole James and BC NDP    48 %

Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals    30 %

Jane Sterk and BC Green Party    20 %

Undecided    10 %

Question #2

Do you support BC NDP Opposition member Jenny Kwan’s plan for Universal Daycare in British Columbia?

Yes    46 %

No    40 %

Undecided    14 %

Question #3

Do you support Gordon Campbell’s BC Liberal Green initiative to spend 1 billion dollars on the introduction of Hydro thermostats for ‘inside’ BC homes in order to allow residents to adjust Hydro settings relative to market conditions?

Yes    06 %

No    94 %

Commentary

Commentary

Metro Victoria has solidified as a BC NDP friendly political zone. BC Greens, once the leverage of choice for Gordon Campbell’s BC Liberals are now apparently attracting his party’s supporters turning this former advantage against him. These ROBBINS numbers suggest Oak Bay Gordon Head MLA Ida Chong, and Saanich and the Island MLA Murray Coell are in serious trouble heading toward next May’s general provincial election. The former has not been a strong Minister and the latter has been hamstrung by Gordon Campbell post secondary initiatives which focus more on training young people than educating them-a narrow approach on post secondary education for many Metro Victoria citizens.

Respondents throughout Metro Victoria, British Columbia are divided on the matter of Universal Daycare for British Columbia. Most, but not all New Democrat supporters from question #1-are willing to support Jenny Kwan’s plan which is also supported by many Green supporters in this poll-and not supported by BC Liberal supporters.

The idea of universal coverage in health care has been around for some time, but many respondents including undecideds are asking for more information. Does universality mean precisely this-daycare on demand even for the wealthy?

ROBBINS polling for nearly a decade-has determined much that is new about public opinion research-and one fact emerges—never make assumptions about anything when it comes to public opinion. It is one thing to ‘order’ a tailor made poll, it is quite another to properly sample public opinion to determine exactly where the public stands.

The public may accept universality in terms of health care-but is not absolutely ready yet-in centre left friendly Metro Victoria for an absolute ‘on demand’ policy format in terms of daycare. Ms. Kwan’s numbers would have been much higher in our professional opinion had her policy pronounced more of a sliding scale-income tested-approach to daycare.

Gordon Campbell’s ‘Das Boot’ policy to spend one billion dollars on thermostats in the home-is perceived a “just stupid” by most respondents-who see the Premier as desperate to attract conservative Greens to the BC Liberals-but going about it in a cockeyed fashion.