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RSR Research - British Columbia Politics May 8, 2008
  May 08, 2008

ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) President and CEO Glen P. Robbins declares: That the moment Hillary Clinton departs the Democratic nomination race, and Barack Obama is declared the Democratic nominee seeking to become the next President of the United States of America—ROBBINS becomes the New World Standard for public opinion.
A random telephone sample of 1,050 respondents throughout the city of Vancouver, British Columbia Metro Vancouver/Vancouver city poll conducted by ROBBINS between May 1-May 7, 2008. This poll features a margin of error of 2.85% 19 times out 20 @ 95% + (confidence/competency. This poll was sponsored in part by Jim Van Rassel (604) 328-5398. (please note that the question on the Olympics is slightly manipulated in that the option {choice} which is 'positive' support for the Olympics is a stronger standard (addendum for May 16, 2008).
Glen P. Robbins (604) 942-3757 www.robbinssceresearch.com *Jim Van Rassel is a member of MRIA Marketing Research and Intelligence Association/L'Association de la recherche et de l'intelligence marketing

Question #1
Which of the following BC political parties do you currently support?
BC Liberal    36 %
BC NDP    40 %
BC Green    24 %
Other/Undecided    15 %
Question #2
Which of the following candidates do you support for Mayor of Vancouver?
Vision Vancouver candidate Gregor Robertson    24 %
NPA Vancouver candidate Peter Ladner    21 %
Vision Vancouver candidate Raymond Louie    17 %
NPA Vancouver candidate Sam Sullivan    13 %
Vision Vancouver candidate Allan Degenova    06 %
C.O.P.E. Candidate David Cadman    16 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer/Other    34 %
Question #3
How would you assess your opinion of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics at this moment in time?
I’ve never been a supporter of the 2010 Olympics    37 %
I’m always been a big supporter of the 2010 Olympics    30 %
I’m currently taking a wait and see approach regarding the Vancouver 2010 Olympics    33 %
Undecided    11 %
Question #4
The level of unemployment—‘the unemployment rate’ is an important indicator of how the economy is doing. The rate we normally see on television, hear on the radio, or read in Internet or newspaper reporting does not include those individuals who have given up looking for work. If the ‘normal’ unemployment rate does not include all of the people-who might reasonably be considered unemployed—is it a realistic portrayal of unemployed?
Yes    27 %
No    77 %
Yes and No total 104%--the addtion > 100% reflects undecided/not sure     %
Question #5
Vancouver firefighters are demanding an additional 4.5% raise in their negotiations with city hall—for a total that their union believes is consistent with raises provided to other unions specifically C.U.P.E. In your opinion should Vancouver city hall provide an additional 4.5% to Vancouver firemen?
Yes    42 %
No    58 %
Undecided    06 %
Commentary
Observations/Commentary:
ROBBINS reveals the BC Liberals are now losing public support in the City of Vancouver. Recent ROBBINS polls have revealed that BC Liberal support has dropped throughout Metro Vancouver and is plummeting in non BC Liberal regions like Vancouver Island south and Port Coquitlam BC. These numbers support ROBBINS earlier proclamations’ that Gordon Campbell cannot win a third term.
Claude Richmond BC Liberal MLA for Kamloops, first elected with the Social Credit government—and last historical tie of that BC original free enterprise party to Gordon Campbell’s party-is not running again- owing he says to ill health. There are many people now speculating that the real reason Claude Richmond won’t run again is that former BC Socred Premier Bill Bennett promised Campbell could turn water into wine—but Claude Richmond discovered-- much to his chagrin--- that the eventual political concoction was more of a water/vinegar solution.
The percentage of workers needed to put the Campbell Liberals over the top for a third win won’t be voting for his party—nor will many of the managers being ‘pushed off the roof’ by unregulated business owners hoping to avoid costly severance.
Throughout the past month-from southern Vancouver Island through Vancouver city proper to Surrey BC—Gordon Campbell averages around 35%-37% in ROBBINS polls. Other mainstream polling has the ‘convicted criminal and his party’ at the 45-49% range. Remember this: On January 28, 2008 ROBBINS polls suggested Barack Obama 3-4% AHEAD of Hillary Clinton while some of the best in the world—Gallup, Rasmussen and others had Clinton ahead by 12-20%. Even one week ago when Obama was going through arguably 3 weeks of the most negative press a candidate could imagine---the press drew him down//not ROBBINS---our rogue polls called his support steady and possibly growing.
This is BC—a province more economically comparable to Chad or Uganda in Africa-yes it is my home- but the current United States Presidential election is probably the most important in 50-60 years—and (no false humility here) ROBBINS stood up and nailed it against the tide of the mainstream.
If ROBBINS tells you Campbell’s BC Liberals are falling in support---you had better believe it. (If by some miracle or combination of corrupt press—not all votes counted Campbell squeaks in---ROBBINS will poll the Vancouver 2010 Olympics into the ground---ya folly?)
This Metro Vancouver poll of Vancouver’s choice for mayor looks like the beginning of a great show. ROBBINS will be there for the debate:
Vision Vancouver is holding an all-candidates mayoral debate on Wednesday, May 21st, hosted by The Tyee and 24 hours. This will be the first time the three candidates have debated each other in person.
"We're very excited about our three mayoral candidates squaring off for the first time on stage, debating their visions and ideas for Vancouver," said Vision co-chair Mike Magee. "There's been so much excitement generated from this nomination race, and now our members will have the opportunity to see the candidates in action."
The debate is sponsored by 24 hours and The Tyee, and will feature three journalists posing questions to the candidates. It will run for 90 minutes, and the three candidates - Gregor Robertson, Raymond Louie, and Al De Genova - will not know the questions in advance.
The Vision Vancouver mayoral debate will take place at the Norman Rothstein Theatre at the Jewish Community Centre on Wednesday, May 21st. The doors will open at 7:15pm, with the debate to start at 8pm. Admission is free but tickets are required; please see www.votevision.ca for more details-.
Vision Vancouver candidates Gregor Robertson and NPA Vancouver candidate Peter Ladner are the top choices of Vancouver city residents to be the next mayor of that city.
Vision Vancouver candidate Raymond Louie, COPE Vancouver candidate David Cadman and current Vancouver mayor and NPA Vancouver candidate Sam Sullivan battle over the next ‘mid-level’ of contenders with Vision Vancouver candidate Allan Degenova rounding out his ‘back-pack’ chalk full of a few Green votes sprinkled in with other BC Liberal loyalists.
Vision Vancouver and COPE candidates dominate the New Democrat and Green support-with NPA Peter Ladner and Sam Sullivan enjoy a near direct correlation with BC Liberal support.
Gregor Robertson is very highly thought of. If he runs well—I suspect he will win the whole show—but getting there may not be a moonwalk---particularly if David Cadman-who can challenge for the job- weighs in.
Peter Ladner doesn’t get the Green support his deserves but greater exposure and distancing himself from Gordon Campbell’s armpit government will help greatly. First rate credentials to do the job—a front runner—without question.
Support for Vancouver’s 2010 Winter Olympics among Vancouver residents is wilting (not disappeared) as it is everywhere else in the province. The Olympic label just took a shit kicking over China 08—The BC Liberals have lost credibility over the Olympics and to pull it off—the BC NDP needs to freshen up the province and restart the show {Campbell will get some credit later—but not from us}. A large number of respondents-- (44%) of Vancouver city respondents are either taking a ‘wait and see’ approach or are ‘undecided’.
Vancouver respondents are surprised at the actual criteria for assessing unemployment a factor which often helps to determine the overall health of the economy. Currently, employees and managers throughout BC are having difficulty obtaining unemployment insurance---a result which is often impacted by unreasonable employers filing false or contentious Records of Employment—making it difficult for employees to live while they look for another job-or force them into other jobs which pay less. Anecdotal or an emerging pattern?
Firemen are usually a ‘lock’ for public support, not in this ROBBINS poll- which asks Vancouver respondents if they want to provide additional monies for raises for fireman. Recent public relations problems have plagued the firefighters—and the context of the request—to match what CUPE employees received- harkens back to the period of the strike, not a memorable time for Vancouver residents.

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