| Commentary |
| Comments: |
| Support for Barak Obama and Joe Biden is (24.45%) higher than support for Democrats. Support for John McCain and Sarah Palin is (27.80%) higher than support for Republicans. On a basis of success among those respondents who are not part of your party base—McCain achieves (53.21%) majority support. |
| Support for Obama on the matter of the economy is (11%) higher than his party base. Support for McCain is (8%) higher than party base. |
| John McCain is supported by nearly 52% of Independents, Obama and Biden have three times the support of ‘residual’ of minority pool of “Other” from question #1. Even if John McCain grinds out another 8% of he gains (1.25%) forward—and if this swap were zero sum against Obama’s support ‘account’ than 2.5%--gain for McCain in a perfect gain of Independent support. John McCain would need to do this in three different zero sum vote swaps---or two of these and by taking over 70% Undecided’s. What a daunting task. |
| Race is a factor because of (a) recent events in news proclaiming that some McCain supporters are making an issue of it; (b) many Democrats supporters are reacting defensively to it, (c) an overwhelming majority of African Americans intend to support an African American (Democratic) candidate (d) because the most likely next leader of the United States is an African American, a first for that country. |
| From this poll—I don’t get any sense that there is any negative race sentiment about Barack Obama—where there may be—are those that are unsure of his epistemological origins—such as was witnessed at a recent town hall meeting for John McCain. |
| What this ROBBINS poll suggests is that John McCain barring some unforeseen event, or major Obama gaffe—cannot win this presidential election. There are reasons for this which I can explain. |
| First of all, the financial meltdown on U.S. markets and markets all over the world—has made the economy the most important issue by a Wall Street margin—call. The economy has been the most important issue by varying degrees for at least the last six months of this U.S presidential election. |
| John McCain has not been successful on the economy. The war in Iraq is a reminder to Americans of its expense—and the impact of that expense on their domestic economy. No matter where the presidential debate goes—it must always return to the economy which John McCain cannot win. The American people cannot be cheated out of the debate as we are here in Canada—because of the longer more protracted election. The head of the meltdown horse is just sticking its head out of Canada’s proverbial political barn—and Canadians will not receive the full story---just a holiday that will feature a creature with a relatively met(h)aphoric tie to Canada’s next Parliament—(based on the premise of the “election that never was”). The Americans run for one and one half years—Canadians run for a month—who is lazy? John McCain was always behind on the economy---stated—emphatically that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy were strong—and they weren’t. |
| Canadian and American ‘slaves’ are suckers. They buy into a program that is set against their success. The drug dealers have a better opportunity for success all things being equal. I don’t mean to be flip—and I am not desirous of being perceived as neither anarchist— nor apologist—but how else can I say this? What does ‘non nonsense’ Independent---- Lou Dobbs think? |
| John McCain you want to buy time on this guy’s show. |
| When was the last time a person made a fortune after coming to the country with nothing? It doesn’t happen---Trump was poor by rich people standards—with a $10 or 20 million dollar head start. It’s true in New York that may be nothing—although today—if it’s liquid—thank you very much. There are opportunities for new concepts--
new ideas. Who was that little guy who ran for President—your children and your children’s children—billionaire—he actually made most of his fortune from federal contracts. There are fewer and fewer people making it big the old fashioned way---by working a better product into the market. The market fails because innovation has been replaced by greed and “not what you know---but who you know” prevails. In Canada—the best mousetrap means nothing—it’s the Marxist paradigm—of means of production. In America—like Conrad Black-- it will rise from the ashes—in Canada they will hold onto the means of production—of ownership even when they aren’t good at it—just drop the Canadian dollar—and make sure you call us a country-every once in a while. |
| How is it that when the American President, Senate and Congress come up with $700 billion or so—it’s a bail-out in response to a financial meltdown—when the Canadian government (and not the Prime Minister) proposes 25 billion—for banks---it won’t cost the taxpayer a thing? No-one in the Canadian Press (that I could see-hear-etc.) took this apart—during a national election—while an election was taking place in the United States as well. Stunning---absolutely stunning. |
| Secondly, the Republican base is not the equal of the Democratic base. Republican voter base over the past year has been consistently smaller than the Democratic vote base whether you contact 600 voters, 1,000 voters or 10,000 voters or 1,000,000,000 respondents/voters. John McCain was not hampered by this—at first----- because----- he was poaching Democrats and Democratic Independents-- while Obama was fighting with Hillary. |
| John McCain knew he had to confront this reality sooner than later. Obama and Hillary spent big dough on their mutual campaigns—because the idea was that the Democratic winner-- is the next President of the United States. John McCain got a break with the Huckabee fight—yes—few were paying attention—but that stopped when Rep [ub} lican VP candidate Sarah Palin---brought Victoria Secret back to men’s lives. In retrospect—Huckabee may have been a better choice—Obama wins by 1.5%. McCain and Huckabee are Republican heroes. But Hillary Clinton isn’t in the final four---Sarah Palin is---the first Republican woman in the final four. Even if she dips down--------Palin common shares are an open buy in my political ledger. |
| McCain knew all this. The Democrats went into a convention that was near perfect. I was out of bed doing calisthenics—jogging—walking my Dog---my wife was happy—Obama was going to speak that night—Thursday night. Amazing production. Does McCain go with Romney—who in retrospect looks like a Wall Street tycoon? Huckabee who appealed to the base and was a down home fellow?—or does he try a stunt—he chose the latter—Sarah Palin governor of Alaska. |
| What are a few Americans afraid of in Barack Obama? That he might be a poor President or a great President? Whatever he may or may not be---Americans trust him more on the economy than John McCain—and Obama has used the economy as the inextricable twine that binds McCain to Bush---how does McCain reverse this—as time runs out? |
| I could have managed Sarah Palin better—if I were drunk-- than the Republicans who handled her. “All that ass and she don’t know how to shake it.” (Kid Rock). |
| The thing about John McCain that is big—that nobody knows--- is that he likes to gamble from time to time and when he does—he goes in big. Thirty five billion of the 750 billion could go in to Iraq and Afghanistan—all the marbles—foreign policy discussion—with the meltdown it’s all on the table my friend. Cue McCain/Palin/Hail/Mary. |
| American voters are surer about Joe Biden. Remember what ROBBINS said on September 15, 2008 about Joe Biden: |
| “Frankly, and this doesn’t matter but I like Joe Biden—he is a good man—and good men like good women should have their say. (I suppose bad woman and bad men should have their say as well). It is my personal opinion that if Barack Obama is the next President of the United States—people will credit Joe Biden with a big assist. You heard it here first! This isn’t pandering—the best political debater in the United States is Joe Biden—he can afford to be humble—he has knock out power—anytime anywhere—.” |
| Third, African Americans support Obama by an overwhelming majority. If all other things are relatively equal—and race is less of a factor because the economy is such a huge factor—than if African Americans follow through—and vote in the high numbers as
they are expected to—than not only is the Republican base smaller than the Democrat base---the number of one ethnic group which constitutes nearly 15% of the countries population—skews Obama’s advantage particularly when African Americans are among the poorest demographic in the nation—and poor people won’t rule—but they will have a say—because now they know that the stock market needs everybody for their sordid tricks. |
| All in all—John McCain’s chances for victory---are-- as CNN contributor Ed Rollins – says--- “mathematical”. |
| McCain and Obama exchange party supporters between them in equal numbers. Base support thus remains unaffected and one element of voter preference is accounted for. McCain has only a few more supporters from our third largest pool of supporters—but this is really a tie. Thus a large group of supporter is accounted for and the party preference base still hasn’t changed. |
| In our fourth largest pool of voters---‘Other’ Obama and Biden perform slightly better than McCain and Palin—even if this pool of support were higher for McCain/Palin it wouldn’t make much of a difference—because the majority of “Other’s aren’t interested in either set of candidates for president and vice president. Now we’ve accounted for all of our identified voters except for Undecided. |
| Undecided’s on the question of which set of leaders they would support for president and vice president---were far more inclined to select the response that Wall Street “creates wealth for a few”—as well—42% of these respondents were inclined to say that “race was a factor”, in the U.S. election. Will these Undecided’ help John McCain—will Ron Paul endorse McCain? ---a couple of points there? Still short! |
| What does CNN’s citizen advocate extraordinaire Lou Dobbs thinks about this? |
| If all the Undecided’s voters and Ron Paul step forward—and support McCain—what is the upshot---McCain is still a point behind—and the economy stinks. In our view only a very extraordinary foreign policy event—unexpected—as big as the financial meltdown—would need to occur for McCain to have a chance. |
| You see? There is no need to pile on---the performances—over the past two or three weeks---of the U.S. Presidential election. Both of these presidential candidates have been scrutinized, probed—examined----etc. Obama more so than McCain---except for those health records. |
| Both Obama and McCain have sold themselves as agents of change—but as Barack was asked over and over---repeatedly---change for what—to what---or is it just change for the sake of change—(a fair comment)? |
| Well---the meltdown on Wall Street begs changes---begs----like dogs beg—like poor people beg---Barack has owned economy as a presidential issue forever. John McCain owned war—and the meltdown made it all about the economy---Winner—Barack Obama. |
| Right now--- (the funk show brother) John McCain looks like a maverick among elected officials---Washington DC elected officials. Didn’t Washington approve this bail-out package? Don’t Obama and McCain both belong to Washington? Didn’t they caste this in their political blood when they voted in the bail-out package for rich people and others? Both Obama and McCain went out and sold the package to America. De facto they worked for Washington—that’s who pays them—and they worked for George W. Bush. War Bonds 08. |
| So—Obama is the most likely winner (and I will take up to one million dollar bets—with Obama 2-1) --- because he wins OVER AND OVER on the economy which is the number one issue and has been the number issue for many months—AND this issue has been illuminated and amplified by the financial meltdown by the crooks on Wall Street—who pay for the crooks in the institutions—political and legal—to keep the rest “of those insects” away from them. Obama and McCain are politically aligned to the establishment even though the establishment is a political pariah. So who is the agent of change---Obama or McCain? |
| McCain’s change which he has touted forcefully and for many months is supported by his long history in Washington where he enacted bi-partisan bills—across the aisle—meaning he works with other people who don’t necessarily have the same belief system as he does. |
| Barack Obama has been described as inexperienced by just about anyone who has spoken about the election including many of his own party. |
| “A community organizer” muses-- than later crows-- Republican VP Sarah Palin—dissing the ultimate Black Panther President (not the protestor Black Panther group). Now foxy lady—if it is your desire to solicit votes from U.S. citizens (and others of varying degrees) and you also want to be known as the agent of change—when this change is seen as someone more distant from Washington—presumably---isn’t a community organizer—who is the most viable on the economy—the absolute best place to look? |
| Barack—who is from Chicago--- owns the economy because he is inexperienced which makes him trustworthy//as against alternatives---- when Washington (politics) and New York (financial) are not. |
| But events like these are not dreamed up overnight. Accordingly, Barack Obama is the next President of the United States. |
| Glen P. Robbins |
