Robbins SCE Research
Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US & the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Donate
ROBBINS-Olympic size Scrooge Poll
  Oct 20, 2008

This is a targeted survey of 511 respondents (who usually 'vote') throughout the lower mainland of Vancouver (Metro Vancouver) including Vancouver, Burnaby, Tri-City, Richmond, Delta, Surrey, North Vancouver, New Westminster and Surrey. The data was obtained between October 18-21, 2008. It features a ROBBINS averaging on margin of error on Question #2 of 1.15% and 4.5% on the remainder of the questions. These outcomes in our professional opinion would be recreated 19 times out of 20 times @ 95% confidence. This ROBBINS poll was sponsored in part by Jim Van Rassel (604) 328-5398.

Question #1
For which party did you vote in the last provincial election? (Adjusted for gender)
BC Liberals    45 %
BC NDP    42 %
BC Green    10 %
Other    02 %
Question #2
If a by-election were being held in your riding at the end of October 2008, for which leader and party would you caste your vote? (Adjusted from question #1) (rotated)
Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals    30.9 %
Carole James and BC NDP    34.4 %
Jane Sterk and BC Green    8.4 %
Wilf Hanni and BC Conservatives    4.1 %
I likely would not vote    10 %
Undecided    12.1 %
Question #3
With all the talk about the economy what is your likely plan for your Christmas shopping budget this year?
I will likely decrease my Christmas shopping budget this year    55 %
I will likely increase my Christmas shopping budget this year    08 %
My Christmas shopping budget will likely stay the same this year    37 %
Unsure/Undecided/Other    11 %
Question #4
Is BC heading toward an economic recession in the next six months?
Yes    47 %
No    30 %
Unsure/Undecided    23 %
Question #5
Do you agree or disagree with the federal Conservative government’s 26 billion dollar bail-out of Canada’s major banks?
Agree    22 %
Disagree    62 %
Unsure/Undecided    16 %
Question #6
Is it your opinion that the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Games will come in on budget?
Yes    11 %
No    80 %
Undecided    08 %
Question #7
Which of the following statements best reflects how you see the future of policing in the lower mainland?
I would prefer the RCMP    42 %
I would prefer our own lower mainland police force    58 %
Undecided    08 %
Commentary
Comments
Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals have confirmed (69%) of overall voters from their 2005 general provincial election totals and (35%) of current decided voters from all party totals. BC NDP have (82%) from its 2005 general provincial election totals and (39%) of current decided voters from all party totals. BC Greens have (84%) of overall voters from their 2005 election totals and (9.5%) of current decided voters from all party totals.
BC Liberals lose an astounding (5.5%) of overall voters and (12.5%) of their 2005 election totals to those ‘voter/respondents’ who say they “likely would not vote” if the election was held the end of October (the same time as the two Vancouver city by-elections). The BC NDP loses (6.0%) of previous 2005 totals to ‘voter/respondents’ who say they “likely would not vote”.
The BC Liberals give up (05%) of their 2005 election support to the BC Conservative party. The BC Liberals have lost nearly (20%) of 2005 support to either voter/respondents who say they wouldn’t vote (in an October by-election) or to the fledgling BC Conservative party. It is important to note that these numbers reflect Metro Vancouver and were not drawn from the two by-election jurisdictions specifically. Respondents are only reasonably drawn on best efforts based on population.
As between the BC Liberals and BC NDP only, the current decided provincial support for the BC NDP is (52.7%), and for the BC Liberals (47.3%), a lead of (5.5%) for the BC NDP. If we include BC Green decided totals than the comparison between the three is BC NDP (46.7%), BC Liberal (41.9%) and BC Green (11.4%), so-called centre left parties achieving nearly 60% of total vote. If we include current BC Conservative support in the total for decided calculations-- the three main parties have the following support: BC NDP (44.2%), BC Liberal (39.7%), and BC Green (10.8%).
If we took the decided support for the BC NDP and BC Liberals (52.7% -- 47.3%--total 100%) and we discounted the BC Green (10.33%), BC Conservatives (3.94%) and residual ‘other’ from 100% and deducted this total of (15.33%) from 100% and multiplied by BC NDP @ (52.7%)--the BC NDP would score (44.62%) and the BC Liberals @ (47.3%) would score (40.04%). If we grossed up our divisor to (115.33%) the BC NDP would score (45.69%), and the BC Liberals (41.01%).
All in, I would estimate within 1.5% either way that currently the Greens have about 10%, the BC Conservatives and others have about 5-6%, while the two main parties have 84-85% between them (decided voters—lower turn-out) with the BC NDP achieving 3--4% more than the BC Liberals
Women provide decided support to BC NDP nearly 3 to 2 while Men support the BC Liberals by approximately the same ratio. BC Green support is also 3 women to 2 while Men provide better than 3 to 2 support for BC Conservatives.
More men than women say they aren’t likely to vote while more women than men are Undecided.
If we deduct Unsure/Other/Undecided from the total in our Christmas shopping question than just less than 50% of Decided respondents say they will likely be spending less this Christmas, one third will be spending the same and 7% say they will likely be spending more. If we deduct Decided who are likely to spend more from those who are likely to spend less than the net number of decided spending less is 42%, or 28% more respondents will be spending less than will be spending the same. If Undecided’s hold to this same trend this can’t be good news for retailers this Christmas. If Christmas shopping plummets BC’s economy is in real trouble.
There is a distinct correlation between respondents who will be spending less on Christmas shopping and those who are of the opinion that a recession is heading our way in the next six months. One half of the population in Metro Vancouver has lost confidence in the economy. This consumer confidence news is staggering past bad to awful.
There is some twisted irony in the minority of respondents who say they are likely spending more shopping this Christmas and who agree with the federal government bailing out Canada’s banks.
Voters in the lower mainland of the province are of the opinion that the Vancouver 2010 Olympic Games will not come in on budget. This is disastrous news for VANOC as the Olympic Games are little more than one year away, and the general sentiment about the Olympics at this point in time is not positive whatsoever. Even BC Liberal supporters in this poll have lost confidence in the government’s ability to be forthcoming and honest.
Many respondents who support the BC Liberal party are of the opinion that the party would be better off getting rid of its leader—unawares it would seem that the party is tied to Gordon Campbell for the next election.
This poll isn’t a good result for the RCMP even if we consider many respondents were obtained from Vancouver which has its own police force. Cities and municipalities like Burnaby, Tri-Cities and Surrey which have an RCMP force were down markedly in their support for Canada’s ‘finest’.

Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US and the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Site Map
Copyright Robbins SCE Research Inc. ©2017