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ROBBINS-"most accurate pollster in the World"--B.C. Election MAYPOLL
  Mar 19, 2009

1,117 respondents by telephone-using White pages (phone book) in various regions between March 11-19, 2009 throughout the province of British Columbia (ROBBINSLAND). Based on a ROBBINS professional polling assessment--I would put the margin of adjustment between the response outcomes at (1.5%)--. Costs of the telephone calls (note some calls were made by volunteers)were ameliorated by an honourarium from Jim Van Rassel (604) 328-5398.

Question #1
Are you eligible to vote in the BC provincial general election this May, 2009? (1,117 respondents)
Yes, I am certain I am eligible to vote    75.5 %
Yes, I believe I am eligible to vote    24.5 %
I am not eligible to vote    16.5 %
Unsure/Other    08 %
Question #2
Currently, do you intend to vote in the upcoming BC provincial general election this May, 2009? (From “Yes, I am certain I am eligible to vote”-- in question #1 (only (75.5%)). (844 respondents)
Yes, I am certain I will vote    39.25 %
I am fairly certain I will vote    13.08 %
I am fairly certain I will NOT vote    22.43 %
I doubt I will vote    18.69 %
Unsure/Cannot Answer    6.54 %
Question #3
At this point in time which of the following BC provincial leader and party do you currently support? (voters-“certain” and “fairly certain“-to vote) (Rounded). (442 respondents)-(40% of total).
Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals    43.50 %
Carole James and BC New Democrats    38.90 %
Jane Sterk and BC Greens    8.75 %
Wilf Hanni and BC Conservatives    6.25 %
Other    1.6 %
Undecided    14.2 %
Question #4
In your opinion, from which of the following limited choices provided-which is the policy you most support?
BC Provincial carbon tax realizing 2-3 billion in annual revenues    32.5 %
BC Provincial legalization of marijuana realizing 2-3 billion in annual revenues    21 %
Neither of these    46.5 %
Question #5
In your opinion should aboriginals have increased and easier access to BC crown forestry lands in order to resolve more aboriginal claims in the province?
Yes    19 %
No    74 %
Undecided    06 %
Question #6
In your opinion if one group of employees in one industry is compensated for income loss--due to the 2010 Winter Olympics--should employees in other industries experiencing income loss--due to the 2010 Winter Olympics--also be compensated?
Yes    78 %
No    20 %
Undecided    02 %
Question #7
A BC businessman with no criminal record is erroneously listed on a British Columbia government judicial website as a “pedophile” who uses his business as a “sexual playground”. These statements are unfounded and untrue. If you were on a jury how much compensation, if any, would you award for damages related to these untrue statements unrelated to other business losses?
$500,000 to $1,000,000    21 %
$1,000,000 to $5,000,000    77 %
Over $5,000,000    02 %
Undecided    00 %
Question #8
How important is it TO YOU to make a switch from R.C.M.P. to a provincial or regional police force here in British Columbia?
Very Important    12 %
Important    21 %
Unimportant    30 %
Very Unimportant    35 %
Undecided    02 %
Question #9
Should the government provide bail outs or financial help to major media in Canada currently experiencing serious financial troubles?
Yes    11 %
No    82 %
Undecided    07 %
Commentary
(29%) of Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals support (12.62% overall) is “fairly certain” to vote, while (13%) of Carole James and BC NDP support (5.06% overall) is “fairly certain” to vote. (42%) of Undecided (5.96 overall) are “fairly certain” to vote. (11%) of Jane Sterk and BC Greens are (0.96% overall) “fairly certain” to vote, and (12%) of Wilf Hanni and BC Conservatives (0.75% overall) are “fairly certain” to vote according to question #3.
The ‘left side’ of the spectrum, namely BC NDP and Greens (exclusive of “Other” and “Undecided”), have a much greater confidence in their leader and party than does the ‘right side’, namely BC Liberals and BC Conservatives, in large part of because of the BC NDP’s high supporter confidence ratio (HSCR) involving (“Certain” v. “Fairly Certain”) options as responses, and the BC Liberals weaker numbers in this regard. It is the relative ‘vastness’ of this particular measurement--two months prior to the upcoming provincial general election, which could provide the tell into real political fortunes for May 2009.
The overall leader and party numbers show a close race, one which might appear to benefit the BC NDP more owing to the amount of popular supported ’wasted’ on BC Liberal totals in ridings where that parties popularity has traditionally exceeded (50%), however the BC Liberals numbers are smoothed down somewhat from previous overwhelming totals from the Okanagan and Fraser Valley-based on either forestry, aboriginal title claims--land use--there is no guarantee these two regions don’t elect someone in a party other than the BC Liberals///and they are now averaging under 50% public support with the Okanagan--featuring higher BC Conservative and BC NDP totals-- making the ridings east of and north of Hope BC, the ones to watch carefully in this upcoming provincial elections as the BC Liberals-- are fading somewhat-- and the BC New Democrats are gaining.
From question #3 Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals are (36.5%) on Vancouver Island, (43.5%) Vancouver through to Surrey including Richmond and the North Shore-- and (47.0%) Langley through to Hope. They are (46.5%) in the Okanagan region-(39%) in the Kootenay region and (43.5%) in the Prince George region. The majority of the “fairly certain” BC Liberal vote occurs Vancouver through Surrey.
The BC New Democrats are (47%) on Vancouver Island, (42%) Vancouver through to Surrey, (34%) Langley through to Hope. They are (34%) in the Okanagan region, (47%) in the Kootenay region and (41.5%) in Prince George.
The BC Greens are (11%) on Vancouver Island, (09%) Vancouver through to Surrey, (05%) Langley through Hope. They are (07%) in the Okanagan region, (11%) in the Kootenay region and (09%) in Prince George.
The BC Conservatives are (04%) on Vancouver Island, (5.5%) Vancouver to Surrey, (12%) Langley through Hope, (11%) in the Okanagan region, (08%) in the Kootenays’ and (05%) in Prince George.
Based on certain voters only, the BC Liberals have (31%) support, the BC NDP (34%), the BC Greens (08%) and the BC Conservatives (5.5%)--overall with Undecided at (08%). If you --gross up these totals to 100% after factoring out Undecided--the BC Liberals have (39.5%), the BC NDP (43.3%), BC Greens (11%), and BC Conservatives (08%). Clearly the trend among decided voters is toward the BC NDP, BC Greens and BC Conservatives-------------- and away from the BC Liberals.
The BC Liberals score around (45.5%) on the North Shore and in Richmond-and on average less than (43.5%) in Burnaby, Tri-City and Surrey with Surrey bringing down the overall average of these three regions scoring only (41%). Based on seat totals from 2005 I see seat losses ranging from 5-10 for the BC Liberals with BC NDP benefiting accordingly on Vancouver Island-Vancouver city-Burnaby-Kamloops, Kootenay, and Prince George. (I would recommend going to Elections BC---it is no easy feat to get at elections results--good to print off a few for hard copy).
Most of the “fairly certain” culture of BC Liberal support comes from daytime calls (9:30 am--5:00 pm) in particular-- female support. This reality has got to be killing Gordon Campbell--as he and Carole James compete for the ideological centre of the province--Campbell’s losses to Wilf Hanni and the BC Conservatives will be noticeable in this election--, and I don’t know if the public will accept the explanation that a ‘BC Conservative vote is a vote for the BC NDP’, particularly after the BC Liberals have had two chances in a row--to be government. Carole James was awfully good in the last campaign-(05)and she’s a wiser woman--this isn’t affirmative action--this is more why the heck not?--.
On the other hand, the winter has been very uncomfortable for many British Columbians, particularly those residing in the lower mainland where more snow fell--and temperatures dropped along with wealth, particularly in the age demographic holding the bulk of property ownership--55-60 plus. A lot of rich people may be as unhappy as a lot of poor people. Will sunshine mitigate the doldrums for these predominantly BC Liberal supporters?
If the BC NDP wins it will not be business as usual in provincial politics-do they understand this? (The toughest lesson for any boy or girl to learn is that you can only “aw shucks” yourself in life for so long--)
Every province should have at least one serious party that advocates for smaller government. The BC Conservatives under Wilf Hanni are the only ones who can legitimately lay claim to this corner of the political spectrum. There are some BC New Democrats who like a carbon tax, and there are more BC Liberal supporters who don’t like it. Most, but certainly not all BC Green supporters like a carbon tax. There are no current BC Conservative supporters who support a carbon tax.
I believe the federal Conservative brand is bolstering interest in the BC Conservative brand. If Wilf Hanni runs a full slate and it appears he has a good shot at this---can the regular media afford to ignore the BC Conservatives in this election? Any attention they get--hurts Campbell, and BC Green numbers are dwindling a little. Having all of the names and pictures of your candidates on your website would create a tremendous advantage for the BC Conservatives in this election.
ROBBINS was the first to publish major size polls (4,000 to 5,000) at the turn of the century--confirming that the Greens were at (10%) and not (02%) as most regular media pollsters did. At that same time ROBBINS was the first to reveal that Bill Vander Zalm and Reform BC tumbled from (24%) in public support to (05%) based on large measure to the fact that Reform Canada had changed its name to Canadian Alliance. Now the Greens have had plenty of attention with polling--- often sending their numbers in the early (20’s) in some cases. Not any more. It’s a Conservative crowd-which isn’t to say this the brand everyone wants--but on the federal stage the Conservative Party has run three years of minority governments. Stephen Harper’s confidence in Canada’s ability to rebound from the ‘economic crisis’ against contradictory evidence by experts or anticipated bad news yet to come--sets the stage for future political success and failure. If the economy turns around and Stephen Harper is Prime Minister--in the election following--if relatively soon thereafter ---he will win a considerable majority. What is Michael Ignatieff going to do--when he sees this ‘inevitable’ finish line--he wants to be Prime Minister not just get the Liberals more seats? He must do the latter--but he desires the former. Of all the percussion instruments--- I love the conundrum the most.
The federal Conservative Party stays away from Wilf Hanni because of a long history with the BC Liberals from old Reform Canada days. If Wilf Hanni does 10% or better in this provincial election than he will have the main say in this province for the provincial Conservative brand. If he does 3.5% overall provincially AND the BC Liberals lose government (and this poll suggests that could be the case) as a consequence--this outcome will provoke a lot more discussion about influences on elections and the overall system. Wilf Hanni and his Conservatives had a big showing in the most recent Vancouver by-elections, where the BC NDP won easily electing two people who are gay. The BC Conservatives achieved (4.5%) in an area where I believed (2.5%) would have been terrific. Hard diligent work by Hanni, proving that he shows up to play--more news releases than I can follow about (some very impressive) candidates and the luster of a federal party Conservative name brand (its like Chevrolet--Conservative sounds good) which is popular here in B.C.--give BC Conservatives Hope for a brighter future. Don’t expect help from the media--unless the advertising ban keeps hold.
Political science tells me to be dubious of the BC Conservatives. No matter, they can’t be ignored. Their potential impact on the lower mainland could involve as many as a dozen seats.
AG Wally Oppal did his thing--but he wants a provincial/regional police force and the BC voting audience doesn’t think that this-- is a “very important” issue.
I am not sure if Oppal’s alleged heir apparent former West Vancouver police chief constable Kash Heed can sway the main public of the province--but it may symbolize other important messages the BC Liberals hope to convey during the Writ period-however it is important to note that a move away from the R.C.M.P is a move away from Ottawa--where Conservative Stephen Harper is the Prime Minister. Does the Prime Minister of Canada and the BC Liberal Attorney General Wally Oppal not see eye to eye on this important issue?
I believe Wally Oppal hopes to re-invent himself as a hometown Liberal populist--with an eye to a Carole Taylor government if the BC Liberals win a close one and Gordon Campbell says good-bye.
The solution to the non-stop problems between the BC Attorney General’s Office--is to not have a specific Minister for that Office and put the AG under the broader public safety office of the Solicitor General--or for the next Premier of the province to appoint an elected person who is not a lawyer to that Ministry. It is beyond my scope of understanding how an entire establishment system can be so unawares of the complete lack of credibility some of its institutions have with the public.
What are Gordon Campbell and Carole James going to do about the carbon tax? We’ve all got it--because Gordon Campbell wanted it--and Carole James doesn’t want it--but the numbers of respondents including BC Conservatives who believe Carole James will keep the tax--not axe the tax is growing. It’s not a big winner in this poll--including over marijuana--the latter would have assuredly been the chart topper 8-9 months ago.
Night time calls got much better support for marijuana as both day and night time calls contributed to “neither of these.” One respondent during night time interviews said “he can buy great pot anytime he wants--why get the government in the middle of it--they’ll ruin a good thing.”
When the gunplay starts and continues unabated as it has and is--the public gets angry at the heart of the problem--namely BC Bud. As mentioned, a handful of New Democrat supporters----back the carbon tax--at least as it was presented in this poll.
The public’s reluctance to change in the midst of chaos--and the absolute sanctity of the quality of the BC Bud product line among pot smokers---makes marijuana a sexy issue still but not an election breaker (at this moment in time). Women--particularly day time respondents-- are more likely to stay clear of marijuana--some preferring to see the carbon tax as a more legitimate mechanism for dealing with progressive issues.
Does the government ever actually conduct any non-partisan polling? Aboriginal compensation never performs well with the public--and telling them they have to accept because of the Constitution or other legal rationale moves the people not one inch. The dominant comment from those who oppose special rights for aboriginals is still assimilation with the rest of the population. Present this reality against what the BC Liberals have speculated (and since abandoned) about aboriginal claims! There are two reasons for this spectacular gulf between what the citizens want and what the politicos and legal community want. The first, relates to the pressure brought to bear on politicians from all levels of our unaccountable judicial system. Trudeau’s legacy of managed balkanization of Canadian sovereignty. The second, relates to the millions of dollars which go to lawyers and consultants laundered nicely through land claims resolutions. Many politicians are looking for this big pay day when they leave office and want to sprinkle their goodwill seeds with the aboriginal community while in office. The third relies on the growing mistrust of British Columbians in all forms of institutions, government or otherwise--and the apparent desire of government to remove itself from any scrutiny by the public--including and in particular land deals involving aboriginals.
A rather discontented group of ‘voters’ handles questions about economic losses--job losses--associated with the 2010 Olympics Games with relative ease. It is no longer sellable to excuse conspicuous unfair behaviour by government--toward one group of people and its losses and away from other groups--by trying to convince those who are not involved in the compensation question--that there is only one taxpayer. The general consensus is--the government should operate with clean hands. If one group gets compensated than so should another. Overall, the institutions of government--are not seen positively and the continuation of this cheap and tawdry divide and conquer--of the public suggests that government has become “like a foreign country” to its own people. Diplomatic immunity for Kevin Falcon--and on it goes.
Did you ever know someone who became a politician who you knew when you were younger? Did you ever ask yourself--how they heck were they given any authority? This example depicts the attitude of voters towards politicians--they’re not trusted.
The question of the ‘businessman’ and compensation arises from some pretty ugly ethical conduct of a lot of people, particularly those being paid by the government or by law firms. Certainly, I believe any reasonable person views this matter with a sense that “they aren’t surprised”. At one time, I was shocked, but now I can say without reservation that the political system, judicial system--and lack of true independence in the regular media--makes the establishment far more corrupt than credible.
Our wonderful expose of corrupt Attorney Generals’ office, corrupt lawyers etc. serves as a wonderful testament to Judicial Review in cyberspace. Our further desire is that people acting in person will take advantage of the axiom that court pleadings are made without prejudice--and the opportunity to realize what an advantage the notion of the legal narrative in with the facts of the matter---can be to a case. All too often plaintiffs lawyers -in my opinion- tailor the pleadings to mitigate damage to defendants--and create more opportunities to settle cases that should be more hard fought.
The numbers of institutions, media and other not only in Canada, but in particular the United States and Europe toward the Holocaust and Guantanamo Bay--Glen P. Robbins ‘series of books’ is incredible.
The amounts provided for in this poll are edited. No respondents selected Zero to $500,000 and zero respondents selected over 10 million. Given this is a matter involving multi-billion dollar Search Engines--and a BC government judicial site---a lawsuit filed in California, based on actuarial information and discussions with International lawyers could create a cause of action for many hundreds of millions in that jurisdiction. Surely, Search Engine lawyers would want to look long and hard at the cavalier attitude of this 'nutty' Judge.
The government institutions, schools, colleges Universities--and regular media that come to ROBBINS every day for real information they can rely on reinforces our original business strategy---to get between the propaganda of the regular press---and the people--and give real and honest feedback about issues to the public. The business plan I developed for my 2.2 million dollar per year publishing company I believe would have changed print media in the province for years to come---an industry which is now languishing in the doldrums of disinterest among many citizens. The development of the polling should serve as a reminder that sometimes merit should prevail over the vagaries of others in government--often with little bona fide skill or talent who try to interrupt success. If there is a reason that the United States economy bounces back faster than Canada--is that in the United States there is much greater respect for the vision of entrepreneurs--in Canada its all about position--with or without merit-------AND this I have now proved (I don’t like a lot of fanfare--but a bow and curtsey in public may be appropriate).
It is amazing to see the most populous city of the United Arab Emirates -- Dubai drawing down daily on ROBBINS, particular the Burke Mountain debacle. Both Jim Van Rassel and I live in Westwood Burke Mountain. The BC Liberals are running a third stringer from fading Labour Minister Iain Black’s down line--have the BC New Democrats made an announcement of a candidate here?
BC is the only jurisdiction that will not permit the police to lay charges and this is likely where the rubber first hit’s the road on all that follows--including and most particularly relating to the complete lack of confidence in BC’s Rule of Law and the Courts. If BC had respect for the Rule of Law--the BC Rail case (on the legislature) would have come and gone by now--and more specifically issues important to British Columbians would be made available through referendum or ROBBINS polls which currently serve British Columbians as referenda.
Obviously, there is little appetite for financial (or any other) special consideration for media. We knew as soon as federal Heritage Minister James Moore started talks of his what to do slush fund for ‘media’ that we should follow the money---and British Columbians have clearly spoken--at least from this window of opportunity. To be clear, I have never been comfortable with the federal Conservative Parties relationship to CanWest Global. It appears they have built their own media room--they certainly handed over a lot of money for the Human Rights Museum ($100,000,000)---money which I suspect would have better served the citizens with ROBBINS the Father of new media in British Columbia and potentially across the country.
Glen P. Robbins

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