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BC Election 2009--ROBBINS Carbon Tax and Provincial GAS
Best writer-Internet journalist--right now in the province of BC---Laila Yuile,   Apr 30, 2009

A ROBBINS poll based on a random sampling of (450)British Columbians throughout all regions. This poll was conducted between April 25-29, 2009. Margin of error plus or minus (04%), 19 times out of 20 -95%- confidence

Question #1
Do you support B.C.’s carbon tax? (adjusted)
Yes    37.5 %
No    50.5 %
Undecided    12.5 %
Question #2
Do you support offshore oil and gas exploration off the coast of British Columbia? (adjusted)
Yes    40.5 %
No    35 %
Undecided    24.5 %
Commentary
This ROBBINS BC election 09 poll on the environment represents some very interesting contrasts (and for politicians seeking election May 12, 2009) conflicts as these relate to the matter of BC’s carbon tax, and offshore oil and gas exploration off the coast of British Columbia.
Parties differ on election platforms relating to the environment--- by half save for the BC Greens and BC Conservatives who differ completely.
Ms. Sterk and her party support the BC Liberal carbon tax, and oppose offshore oil and gas exploration. Her Yes/No combination to questions 1 and 2 respectively— are (13.5%-adjusted)
Gordon Campbell and his BC Liberal party support the carbon tax “Yes”, and supports offshore oil and gas exploration “Yes”. He and his party have Yes/Yes support of (14%-adjusted).
BC New Democratic leader Carole James opposes the carbon tax and opposes offshore oil and gas exploration. Ms. James and the BC NDP have a No/No of (14%-adjusted).
BC Conservative leader Wilf Hanni opposes the carbon tax and opposes offshore oil and gas exploration. He has a No/Yes of (15%-adjusted).
In North Vancouver of (20) respondents (12) said “Yes” to a carbon tax, while (07) said “No”.
In Richmond, B.C., of the (25) respondents interviewed (15) supported the carbon tax—and (8) opposed it, while (09) said “No” to offshore oil and gas and (14) supported it.
In Burnaby, BC respondents are slightly more inclined to answer “No” to the carbon tax but it is close. Of the (30) respondents in Burnaby-(13) support carbon tax, while (15) opposed it. (13) supported offshore oil and gas (12) opposed it.
In Comox—on the northern part of Vancouver Island—(11) respondents were interviewed with (5) supporting a carbon tax and (4) saying “No”. Only (3) supported offshore oil and gas while (6) said “No”.
Up the northern coast in Prince Rupert (down the road from Prince George) of (6) respondents (1) supported the carbon tax, while (4) said “No” and (3) supported offshore oil and gas while (2) said “No”.
(Prince George City) (19) Total respondents-(6) “YES”, (11) “NO”. Cranbrook (11) total respondents—(5) “YES”, (5) “NO”.
McKenzie and 100 Mile House are more rural ridings providing (5) respondents each for a total of (10) ‘rural’ respondents. (1) respondent in McKenzie answered “Yes” to a carbon tax while (0) in 100 Mile House answered “YES”. (3) respondents in Mckenzie answered “NO”, while all (5) respondents in 100 Mile House answered “NO”.
In Penticton BC (15) respondents were obtained. (4) answered “YES” to a carbon tax while (09) answered “NO”. In Kelowna (34) respondents were obtained—(11) answered “YES” to carbon tax, while (17) answered “NO”. In Kamloops (23) respondents were obtained with (5) responded “YES” to a carbon tax, (11) responding “NO”.
In the lower mainland moving west toward Vancouver city proper we collected (12) respondent samples from Chilliwack (3) responding “YES” to the carbon tax, with (9) answering “NO”.
In Surrey ‘city’ (48) respondents-(15) “YES” to carbon tax and (28) “NO” to it. In Coquitlam (20) respondents (6) “YES”, (11) “NO”. In Port Moody (6) respondents (3) “YES” (3) “NO”. In Port Coquitlam (11) respondents (3) “YES” and (8) “NO”.
In a ‘stunner’ Vancouver city respondents on both sides of Main Street –in the majority--answered “No” to the carbon tax. Of (54) respondents, (19) answered “Yes” to a carbon tax-(29) answered “No”. — (28) respondents answered “Yes” to offshore oil and gas, while only (15) said “No”.
In the provincial capital—Victoria-B.C., (68)—(28) answered “Yes” to a carbon tax, while (34) answered “No”. (39) responded “Yes” to offshore oil and gas—while (26) said “No”.
In Esquimalt, (09) responses were obtained—(03) supported the carbon tax, while (06) said “No”.
In Nanaimo (18) responses were obtained—(07) supported the carbon tax--- (09) did not.
Best efforts were made to adjust for population.
(39%) of respondents in the lower mainland of British Columbia said “Yes” to the carbon tax, while (52%) said “No”, with (8.5%) Undecided.
(40.5%) of respondents on Vancouver Island said “Yes” to the carbon tax, while (50%) said “No”, with (9.5%) Undecided.
(28%) of respondent in the North and East including the Interior of BC said “Yes” while (55%) said “No”, with (17%) Undecided.
Gordon Campbell’s BC Liberals score an average of (39%) on “Yes”/ “Yes” (carbon tax/oil and gas). Carole James BC New Democrats score an average of (42.75%) on “No”/ “No” (carbon tax/oil and gas).
Wilf Hanni and BC Conservatives score an average (45.5%) on “No”/ “Yes” (carbon tax/oil and gas), while Jane Sterk and BC Greens score an average of (36.25%) on “Yes”/ “No” (carbon tax/oil and gas).
Between the two main parties-the BC Liberals and BC New Democrats---the BC NDP scores (52%), while the BC Liberals score (48%). After factoring generally for Undecided the BC New Democrats score (45.5%) while the BC Liberals score (42%).
The governing BC Liberals have some problems relating to their environmental platforms in this 2009 B.C. provincial election. In the most populous region of the province—the lower mainland, only (39%) support the policy. This policy sells well only on the North Shore and Richmond—with (43%) in Burnaby—.
Only (35%) of Vancouver residents in this poll support the BC Liberal carbon tax. On Vancouver Island the support for the carbon tax (40.5%) exceeds the total the BC Liberals obtained in the last general provincial election.
The BC Liberal carbon tax policy is a disaster in the north, east, and Interior of the province with only (28%) support.
The Opposition BC New Democrats have a winner with their rejection of the carbon tax, with a clear majority of British Columbians against it—.
Although BC Green policy platform relating to these two environmental questions score lowest---their overall average score is well above recent historical voting outcomes. Jane Sterk’s efforts in this election are best concentrated on Vancouver Island-Burnaby and the Vancouver North Shore. (amended-gpr).
Wilf Hanni’s BC Conservative policy platforms relating to these two environmental questions sell well throughout the province---but particularly well where he has concentrated his election efforts.
Carole James and the BC New Democrats dominate the “No” to carbon tax throughout the province—but care must be taken to handle the environmental file on Vancouver Island where the BC New Democrats depend on winning a majority of seats, but where the environment is seen as important.
Gordon Campbell and his BC Liberals are being squeezed on the environment—with the BC Conservatives able to run roughshod over them in the north, east and Interior—and New Democrats dominating on the lower mainland and Vancouver Island. Further, the BC Liberals must contend with support from longtime environmentalists like David Suzuki and others appearing to be contradictory---support for the BC Liberals on the carbon tax—who in turn support offshore oil and gas—a policy which most environmentalists reject.
These numbers though collected in British Columbia reflect the outcomes of respondents in a coastal province—and will have some indirect meaning to Barack Obama’s administration as he looks at offshore oil and gas interests in the United States.
Glen P. Robbins

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