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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics October 26, 2009
  Oct 26, 2009

A targeted sample of 1,013 Canadians who voted in the most recent general federal election (08), between October 18-25, 2009 Our combined ZEUS/ROBBINS margin of error is 1.5% approximately based on statistical outcome -- and ZEUS/ROBBINS strategic calling. Thanks to Jim Van Rassel for his research and sponsorship (604) 328-5398

Question #1
Which political leader and party do you currently support?
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    36 %
Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party of Canada    30 %
Jack Layton and New Democratic Party of Canada    18.5 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    10 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    05 %
Question #2
Do you AGREE or DISAGREE with Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe that the federal government should look to reducing the federal civil service – specifically to help reduce duplicate spending between Ottawa and the provinces?
AGREE    35 %
DISAGREE    17.5 %
Undecided/Don’t Know enough to answer    52.5 %
Question #3
Would you seriously consider voting for The Libertarian Party of Canada which supports a decrease in the size and influence of government over the people?
Yes    18 %
No    70 %
Commentary
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada – Totals across the nation
BC (37%), Alberta (51%), Saskatchewan (51%), Manitoba (42%), Ontario (40%), Quebec (21%), Atlantic Canada (34%).
Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party of Canada –Totals across the nation
BC (28%), Alberta (20%), Saskatchewan (19%), Manitoba (25%), Ontario (38%), Quebec (21%), Atlantic Canada (41%)
Jack Layton and New Democratic Party of Canada – Totals across the nation
BC (29%), Alberta (24%), Saskatchewan (27%), Manitoba (30%), Ontario (17%), Quebec (10%), Atlantic Canada (20%)
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada – Totals across the nation
BC (06%), Alberta (05%), Saskatchewan (03%), Manitoba (03%), Ontario (05%) Quebec (05%), Atlantic Canada (05%).
Conservatives are down (17%) in BC, down (20%) in Alberta, down (05%) in Saskatchewan, down (14%) in Manitoba, up (2.5%) in Ontario, flat in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have lost (02%) nationally in the western provinces based on voting outcomes from the most recent federal election in fall 2008. The Conservative Party of Canada claws back one half of one percent nationally in Ontario, and is currently (3.5%) below totals achieved in the last general election.
Liberals are up (43.5%) in BC, up (74%) in Alberta, up (27%) in Saskatchewan, up (31.5%) in Manitoba, up (12%) in Ontario, down (14%) in Quebec, and up (05%) in Atlantic Canada. Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals have gained (02%) nationally in the western provinces, and added another (1.5%) nationally in Ontario and Atlantic provinces.
Jack Layton and NDP are up (11.5%), up (89%) in Alberta, up (06%) in Saskatchewan, up (25%) in Manitoba, down (5.5%) in Ontario, down (16.5%) in Quebec, and down (24%) in Atlantic Canada – from previous election totals in 2009. Jack Layton’s New Democrats are up over (1.5%) nationally through the western provinces – and down approximately (01%) nationally through Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.
In British Columbia (36%) of respondents Agreed with Gilles Duceppe’s proposal to reduce the civil service, while (17%) Disagreed. In Alberta (54%) Agreed, while (09%) Disagreed. In Saskatchewan (53%) Agreed, while (04%) Disagreed. In Manitoba (40%) Agreed, while (17%) Disagreed. In Ontario (26%) Agreed, while (20%) Disagreed – in Quebec (43%) Agreed, while (18%) Disagreed – in Atlantic Canada (21%) Agreed while (24%) Disagreed.
Overall, Canadians want to see a (20%) reduction in the federal civil service, - based on a Decided basis of Canadians an astounding (67%) want a reduction in federal civil service numbers – while nearly three out of four Decided Canadians living in Western Canada want reductions to the federal civil service.
Our Entertainment question with respect to the Libertarian Party reflects the sense that many people are becoming sick of government intrusion in their lives. Many conservative types are becoming sick of THIS government’s intrusions – or lack of managerial skills.
Are Jack Layton’s New Democrats and Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals benefitting in increased support in the west, based on a western backlash (of sorts) against the Conservative government?
Prime Minister Harper has always counted on dominating the western provinces for his seat totals – solidifying his near (93%) of seats required for a majority. If these numbers were to hold – I would suggest the Conservatives would lose 7-10 seats in the west and gain one or two in Ontario. One can see that the (36%) the Conservatives garnered to gain their first minority government – provided them with far less seats than the number of seats they would win with the (36%) they currently have.
ZEUS/ROBBINS suggest that the numbers in this poll make it clear – that the Conservative Party must win Ontario with (43-44%) and (30%) in Quebec – in order to win a majority. Naturally, they must also counter the apparent discontent that is fomenting in their stronghold – the western provinces – to accomplish this.
Federal Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff is on the right path. He got hurt trying to force an election, but one never happened, so he is on the record opposing the Conservatives -- and can now invest his capital explaining why that is. The Conservatives looked awful over the selfish approach they took with respect to deficit monies being spent across Canada - and the self congratulations they layered on top for themselves -- Conservative logos on cheques etc. With the swine flue vaccination already hitting major snags -- and rumours rampant about former Bush Defense Minister Rumsfeld being a major investor in the company that produces the vaccine -- general government ineptitutde and incompetence -- the apparent inability of institutions to properly handle the needs of Canadians through E.I. and other -- is hurting the Conservative's credibility and helping the other parties including the Liberals.
The Bloc Quebecois continue to dominate in Quebec -- and with corruption rampant in that province -- the Parti Quebecois looks to seize advantage there. Mr. Duceppe's position on dumping federal civil servants -- is fairly well received in that province - and this provincial -- federal combo may not bring separation discussions back immediately -- but certainly people are talking.
The B.C. government under Campbell is in tatters -- and the close ties between the federal Conservatives and the provincial Liberals has many people wanting to dump both.
In Alberta, residents there are feeling for the foxy Wild Rose Alliance -- and more than a little disgruntled over Stephen Harper's Conservatives (apparent) move to the centre - to please Ontario and the east -- with most having knowledge -- or believing that Quebec cannot be won -- and that minority government at these levels is the best that can be achieved. The thinking is take care of business provincially -- and take a wait and see with the feds.

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