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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics March 11, 2010
  Mar 11, 2010

A targeted sample of 1,184 Canadian voters from the most recent federal general election (October 2008) from 10 provinces--respondents relatively equal to provincial populations. Poll outcomes obtained from March 03 to March 10, 2010. Margin of error for question #1 outcomes (estimated at 2.0%) all others (3.0%) Jim Van Rassel is providing an honourarium for this poll.

Question #1
For which of the following leaders and party would you caste your ballot if an election were held in Canada tomorrow?
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada-(386)    35.54 %
Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party of Canada-(322)    29.70 %
Jack Layton and New Democratic Party of Canada-(181)    16.68 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois Party of Canada-(87)    8.01 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada-(77)    7.09 %
Other-(33)    3.04 %
Undecided-(98)     %
Question #2
Do you have confidence in Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government’s ability on the World Stage and with foreign affairs?
Yes-(465)    39 %
No-(684)    58 %
Undecided-(35)    03 %
Question #3
Do you have confidence in Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's ability to run Canada's economy?
Yes-(503)    42.5 %
No-(620)    52.5 %
Undecided-(61)    05 %
Question #4
News reports indicate that U.S. President Barack Obama is forcing big banks, financial institutions, automobile manufacturers and others who were provided with billions of dollars from U.S. taxpayers over the past year to pay the money back now that they are ‘back on their feet’. Canada's big banks have borrowed tens of billions of dollars from Canadian taxpayers over the same period of time--many of these banks are once again reporting huge profits for shareholders. Have you heard any media reports of when these big Canadian banks plan to pay back the Canadian taxpayer?
Yes-(31)    2.5 %
No-(1004)    85 %
Undecided-(149)    12.5 %
Commentary
Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper remains ‘in charge’ in fact, despite political problems with his prorogation and “Party On”—decision earlier in the year. His Conservative party numbers are now trending upward toward their 'normal place' in the mid to high thirty per cent from the low thirties percentiles across a spectrum of Canadian pollsters.
Canada’s success in the 2010 Olympics likely wouldn’t damage the presiding government.
‘Some’ of the undecided in question #1 responded "Yes" in either question #2 or question #3. This suggests that the influence of “Prime Minister Harper” and “Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Finance Minister Flaherty” pulls the “Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada” numbers upward—though likely not at the rate of the Undecided for question #1 (08%).
The Afghan detainee matter may make or break the Prime Minister's ability to seek a majority (positively or negatively)--which if 40% is majority--government in Canada// the PM Harper and his Conservative Team may be a little closer to that mark--then some might have expected. This is a far different assessment then when the PM first announced prorogation (at or about the same time as the Afghan detainee/torture matter was starting to boil). Since then the Prime Minister has appointed an independent Judge to review documents (demanded by the Opposition parties and Ordered by the Courts) relating to the Afghan detainee matter—enough “to fill a large room”. The documents apparently need to be reviewed to ensure that no information relating to Canadian security is exposed (and as I am reviewing--/ federal Conservative Minister of Aboriginals Chuck Strahl was handed a big piece of good pie—with the 'dandy andy' announcement of benefits to be paid to the children of aboriginal women—who married non-aboriginal persons—a benefit I assume wasn’t provided for before?)
(I think the next announcement ought to be that the Conservatives will pay $1,250 per new baby of every mother registered with the “Healthy Canadians Organization” a federal agency related structurally to Employment and Insurance and to the federal Health Ministry. This would provide an opportunity for healthy Canadian women (the mom’s health not the babies) to create new home grown Canadians with the goal of 1,000,000 newborn Canadians each year). Over the next 10 years this program plus the nationalized produced—provincial driven daycare which will suitably follow will cost approximately 2 billion per year with provinces participating in the cost. How’s that O Canada for ya?
Good democracies grow their own food.
The (40%) confidence the Prime Minister holds with Canadians is pretty solid---like Britain during World War II -- but the Coalition forces of Stephen Ignatieff, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe are lurking. One problem Gilles Duceppe has is that (28%) of Quebecor’s has confidence in Stephen Harper "on the World Stage..." (despite the Afghan detainee issue) while the Prime Minister has to consider why his 'confidence' numbers in B.C. are less than both HE and his Conservative Party in that province (38%), the only province in the country where this is the case. (Post-Olympic overtures from some parts of Quebec regarding Quebec representing itself separate from the Canadian Team—likely helped and not hurt the Prime Minister across Canada—and in Quebec as well).
It's our professional opinion that Canadians now perceive the federal government as more progressive Conservative than Reform -- but at some level understand the Prime Minister himself is likely NOT to be a progressive conservative -- but his Finance Minister Jim Flaherty could be (has been in the past)-- and that is what sells politically in the provinces of Ontario--- and Quebec It's not an overwhelming ‘win’ for Harper's Conservatives-- not a natural majority like 51% -- {a near impossible standard to attain in Canadian politics}--but Harper is ‘winning’. If the PM isn't ‘winning’—he certainly isn't ‘losing’. The difference between now and a few years ago -- was--that back in 2006, 07, 08 the Prime Minister's personal numbers were always around 50% ‘decided’---but with a higher ‘undecided’ support. Now his numbers are solidly around 40 ‘decided’ with most Canadians having made up their mind one way or the other about Stephen Harper – in this context – as Canada’s Prime Minister on the “World Stage”. However, it is our professional opinion that the Afghan detainee matter has bruised a formerly stellar record on the World Stage in the minds of Canadians---I suspect that Canadians have already punished the Prime Minister for the afghan detainee matter—and prorogation—and like him to a better degree because of the 2010 Olympics. (Likely a fairly commonly held theory now).
The 2010 Olympics had the entire country like “Wimpy on a burger” and Finance Minister Flaherty played this like a French Canadian on a fiddle---music that makes the Quebec women cry and think of romance—and sold a lovely bill of goods to the people’s intuition and not their intellect. The New Baby Act of Canada will make the little Irishman---the final arbiter with Quebec mothers.
The Province of Quebec is nearly broke (Jim Van Rassel—Globe and Mail)---and with BC Conservative leadership candidate glen p robbins in British Columbia for $ 6 billion on the HST (BC’s six billion dollar man)(against current premier Campbell who went to his knees like a beggar for 1.6 billion he won’t even let the people use//no art/culture//cuts to communities//what a creep//)—it looks like provinces are going to want some of the money their constituents gave to the big banks back in their coffers once the Big Banks write that big old cheque---or should we use it to pay off the deficit? The debt? ---really get our house in order—like a delicious spring cleaning.
This is a government that treats banks, oil companies, and moneyed corporations like Gold, and the consumer like a throwaway. Tidy up that political garbage//I say//tidy up that political garbage --- ‘as it were’// treat the citizens as you would your own parents—who are also citizens.
Our question #4 is the polling question that is set to sort out once and for all--- if Canada-- as a political player-- in the midst of fast rising world confidence in our nation---talk of a $1.25 U.S. Canadian dollar in the future---is a real or fake democracy. The Americans are used to being number 1 -- and are constantly scrutinized in that light. Canada has been in the enviable position of doing big trade with the United States with a low Canadian dollar (good for Canadian exporters) -- and now the thousands and thousands of European, Asian and World media---are looking to Canada--really dialling down on what we are all about. The question Worldwide investors are hoping ROBBINS can answer for them-- the truth---is this: Is Canada really this tight a nation/this cool blue -- or are WE hiding something?
The problem for reality is political. Prime Minister Harper has his snout in the city centre of Toronto and he likes what he smells politically in THAT region of the country--- that is usually death to Conservatives. Presto change---thank you 2010 Olympics. Thank you Toronto bars and pubs. When is Prime Minister Harper, an expert on Hockey in Canada-- publishing his history of Hockey in Canada? Will Don Cherry write a few words about the book along with an album of songs from Canadians like Neil Young, Gordon Lightfoot, Anne Murray, Rush, Randy Bachman, Sara, Alanis, Burton Cummings—and Stompin’ Tom Connors.
The Democrats have traditionally argued valiantly against abuses by financial institutions against the people. So what’s the deal with this money the taxpayers of Canada provided to Toronto centred financial district—and Jack what are you going to do about it—?
I’m asking real loud here Jack.
The matter of Canadian taxpayer money being paid back by banks needs to be fully discussed.
It would appear from the responses of Canadians in question #4 of this ZEUS poll---that we may yet be hiding something. If the banks repaid the monies they received--or received similar economic benefit--it's time to confess/boast--deal with the situation--make plain statements to the public--and advance the money they borrowed back to Canadians or provide a provable explanation. If---this is not done--investors should be very careful about the bill of goods our government is selling----and Canadians should vote the Conservatives out.
One of the Opposition Leaders needs to tell Elizabeth May and her federal Green Party to hit the road!
If Canadians in this ZEUS poll who support Elizabeth May and the Green Party of Canada were to instead support Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party of Canada, the Liberals would be tied with the Conservatives. There's nothing wrong with the Liberal leader---mathematics is hurting him. Every one in ten centre left voters supports Elizabeth May and the Green Party. The Liberals/NDP/OR Bloc should offer Elizabeth May an absolutely winnable seat to join their party. Can a Member of Parliament step aside and offer the seat to Elizabeth May? Any party who claims Ms. May in this manner (and if Ms. May can stop talking about Kyoto—kill a million Whales today)//--- could then promise to provide annual compensation to the Green Party as an advocacy organization.
(The reason a growing number of Canadians do not like the Seal Hunt is because many (70%) have seen images of these creatures getting their heads smashed—the blood on the snow—they don’t see cows and chickens being mistreated (though often they are). We eat it—I eat it—but maybe we wouldn’t if we saw images of cows and chickens being treated badly prior to heading to our plates?
If Jack Layton and the federal NDP possessed the Green supporters his party would be in a position to challenge for Opposition for certain (and possibly government). Four leaders and party fighting for (60%) of left of centre support/when one of those four---is unworkable. In this predicament for the left -- the Conservative Prime Minister and Finance Minister can retain hold of minority government indefinitely. Voters are swirling around like sharks---deliberating over where the country is going--there may be no appetite for election right this minute---but this could certainly change in a heartbeat.
Another option would be for leaders and elected MP’s to work with Elizabeth May and Greens on a collective sustainable environment amendment to the Charter of Rights---it’s the right of every Canadian person to expect it’s government to maintain a sustainable environment—for that person and for the future generation of Canadian children.
Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party are equal to Michael Ignatieff and Liberals in Ontario in our opinion (38%).
You don’t need to be L. Ron Hubbard to understand that the Prime Minister’s numbers follow a pattern of behaviour that is more akin to ‘scientific fluctuation’ than anything remotely close to suggesting he will lose in a general federal election. Mr. Ignatieff’s Loyal Opposition Liberal Problems (Lollypop) are pretty deep not based on his own support totals alone. He has been in this neighbourhood of public support - (30%) - for months now. Stephen Harper and the Conservatives drop to (33-34%) Ignatieff’s numbers go up (01-1.5%) to (31-32%)—the people like Harper again a little more up goes the Prime Minister and down goes the Leader of the Opposition.
If Michael Ignatieff and his wife make a motorcycle run across Canada in later spring—that would be a positive thing I expect (smoking lightning)—the Liberals need something grand to go along with the probing of the government’s stinky underbelly—the Olympics may not have started this desire for good news—it has made it impossible to be successful simply by digging into the (apparent) lack of ethics of your foes. Unfortunately—and I don’t have current numbers to support this speculation—a lack of ethics on money is likely more of concern to Canadians than the accusations and serious evidence against the government on the handling of this matter, however if something particularly sinister comes of eventual illumination (Afghan detained issue) (no more than 3 months—hire 100 lawyers get these documents vetted, duly endorsed as meeting ‘the criteria’ relating to security and editing—by His Honour and get them out to the committees. The committees should be given (some) additional funding in order to ensure the proper management (public) of their scrutiny of the matter).
(I am thinking for the moment about the B.C. Rail case – raid on the legislature—moving on six years before the courts--- it leaves an almost putrid taint on both the legislature and the courts). As leader of the province—of British Columbia I will take steps to clean up corruption beginning with the Attorney General’s Office---which will require an exterminator and plenty of bleach.
The Afghan detainee matter is more important in some parts of the country than others---more so in Toronto and Quebec than in the West and the Atlantic Provinces. However, both the Prime Minister and his Finance Minister Jim Flaherty are very strong (for Conservatives) in the city of Toronto (proper), and ‘better’ with support in the city of Vancouver (proper).
The Big Bank Borrowing (B-B-B) raised in question #4-----may-- if publicly well known--and if not clearly resolved---create a situation where Toronto is seen by Canadians as no longer the centre of Canada's financial universe--and support for the Conservative Party of Canada's "ability to run Canada's economy" drops as trust in government drops and confidence in the Prime Minister and his Government turns for the ‘campbellian’ worse (see HST BC/Ontario). With Toronto the Bank—and Alberta the dirty money---the near future need for glen p robbins/sister watts----World Carbon Trading Centre—for Surrey, British Columbia will make this centre of 400,000 ultimately the wealthiest major city in the country. glen p robbins has a plan----and it’s better than the banks taking 25-30 billion and not paying it back. Why should Canadians pay the banks back?
In fact the economic situation in Canada is so steeped in denial—sufficient to make it uncrackable to even a Jewish psychiatrist. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada on page 13 of its “Protecting Consumers” package enables the breaking of Canadian law. It contends Canadians should calculate the Annual Percentage Interest rate from each monthly bill rather than the billing company providing that calculation as it ought to by law. Moreover, the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada does not deal with the matter of penalties or fines being calculated under Interest. Following a pronounced recession and on the crest of better economic news, including record profits for banks---glen p robbins-- would ask when will this government end it’s collusion with financial institutions in the country?
Barack Obama is trying to clean up that countries financial mess and do it fairly what makes the Conservatives in this country any 'better'?
What would Michael Ignatieff say?

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