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ZEUS: BC Liberal leadership race: Straw Poll -- Only the Beginning
Chicago  Jul 26, 2010

Question #1
Which of the following politicians would you like to see replace Gordon Campbell as leader of the BC Liberal Party?
Carole Taylor    29.5 %
Dianne Watts    22.5 %
Rich Coleman    11 %
Mike de Jong    07 %
Kevin Falcon    04 %
Undecided/Other    26 %
Question #2
Do you agree or disagree with this statement: Wages and Salaries should be placed on hold for elected officials and all government workers until after the next provincial general election in 2013?
Agree    67.5 %
Disagree    23.5 %
Undecided    9.5 %
Commentary
171 breaks down as follows: (53) respondents -city of Vancouver; (40) respondents - city of Surrey; (33) respondents Burnaby; (14) respondents Coquitlam; (07) respondents Port Coquitlam; (12) respondents Langley;/Langley Township (12) respondents Abbotsford.
Kevin Falcon receives 3 respondent(s) support from his home base in Surrey- 1 from Coquitlam, 2 from Burnaby, 1 from Port Coquitlam.
Abbotsford and Burnaby had the highest Undecided rate (34%) - not good news for Mike de Jong-who received support of only (33%) of Abbotsford respondents-while Coleman, Watts and Carole Taylor picked up the remainder. The good news is that one half of the respondents who supported Mike de Jong overall came from the city of Vancouver-with no support coming from Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, only 1 respondents from Langley/Langley Township--and 1 from Burnaby.
Rich Coleman dominates Langley his home base with 6 respondents in support (50%)- 1 supporter from Abbotsford, 3 from Surrey, 2 from Port Coquitlam, 2 from Coquitlam, 2 from Burnaby, and 3 from Vancouver.
Surrey mayor Dianne Watts - informed the Province newspaper editorial board that she would run for another term as Surrey mayor -- and not provincially --(at polls end) this is interesting because even if she were secretly desirous of the BC Liberal leadership - she would want to run and win mayor again (November 2011) with a leadership contest in 2012-------the possibility seems thin---but anything is possible in the denial -- entitlement game of BC politics (please see: ‘we’ve got the cheque book and you’ve got jack‘). Similar to Carole Taylor, mayor Watts derives most of her support from her base in Surrey (24 respondents) (60%), 4 respondents from Coquitlam, 1 respondents from Abbotsford, 1 from Langley, 1 from Abbotsford, 2 from Burnaby -- and zero from Vancouver.
Carole Taylor dominates city of Vancouver respondents (36), dominates Burnaby (13), Coquitlam (2), Abbotsford (2), Surrey (1), Port Coquitlam (1). (68%) of overall Carole Taylor support is derived from home base of city of Vancouver.
With Dianne Watts saying she isn’t running provincially - Kevin Falcon obviously wants to try to grab up Surrey respondents - that Watts controls - for his own benefit---the Tri-City area may also prove advantageous--with some effort. With the Port Mann Bridge - and now health care making Falcon well known in the region - he has to escape being Campbell’s guy - and the fact that his popular ‘base’ is hearty - but not sizeable.
Mike de Jong has interesting feedback from BC Liberal supporters. A relatively low total from his home base - but good numbers from Vancouver -- and little elsewhere. BC’s AG needs help in all other areas. His natural ally is Carole Taylor -- but this link to the liberal side of the equation -- may not bold as well elsewhere in the region moving east---needs major work in the Tri-City, Surrey, and Burnaby---not to mention his home base of Abbotsford. BC Conservatives-and/or a new third party could make politics pretty bleak for the BC Liberals in the Fraser Valley--where they have dominated for the past decade.
Rich Coleman is strong as babe the blue ox in his home town of Langley---with support in all other cities and municipalities -- for Coleman--he should ignore Vancouver (for now) and build on the remainder--//particularly with de Jong -- a little weaker in the immediate region. With housing - I believe that many mainstream BC Liberals believe Coleman is doing his best. In a political slime fest - how much trouble will Rich Coleman’s family--appearing to benefit--with forestry deal--a few years back -- hang with the rest of the wall of BC Liberal shame?
Dianne Watts -- announcing she isn’t running to lead the BC Liberals--leaves a gaping hole in Surrey---that needs to be filled. De Jong appears weaker in Surrey, with Kevin Falcon and Rich Coleman potential beneficiaries.
Carole Taylor’s numbers in Vancouver remain very strong -- maybe a run at mayor is best for her--what woman of grace wants to be touted as the best looking 70 year old on the planet--with former B.C. premier Bill Vander Zalm -- as likely to contest that distinction? A run at mayor of Vancouver has to be a consideration--BC politics is also available - but likely only through a sooner than later scenario for Carole Taylor.
I am wondering if the electorate - may actually seek out older leadership candidates---the world view of a strong vibrant older politician - particularly if they are attractive - like Carole Taylor and Bill Vander Zalm.
For me, Jay Hill or John Cummins has got to step up and say they are running for leadership of BC Conservatives---allowing Bill Vander Zalm to remain constant as an advocate -- if the BC Conservatives don’t get this type of action -- other events would likely overshadow a later than sooner move by both federal politicians. Some of the talk is that Campbell will let the BC Liberal party fade - and permit Prime Minister Stephen Harper to take over the provincial Conservatives de facto - in return for federal plums for the premier---------.
A ZEUS straw poll of 171 confirmed BC Liberal supporters from ROBBINS lists. Straw poll conducted July 19-21, 2010. MOE of this sample size is approximately 7.5% 19 times out of 20.

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