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ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) BC Bosses Decide - Carole James, Dianne Watts, Bill Vander Zalm - majority want 2011 spring election/HST referendum -distrust-disgust Campbell embedded
  Nov 09, 2010

Question #1
Premier Campbell has announced his resignation as Premier, yet he also says he will remain Premier and MLA for Point Grey until another leader is chosen which could take up to six months or even longer. Is this resignation acceptable to you?
Yes    14 %
No    80.5 %
Undecided    5.5 %
Question #2
Which of the following leaders and party’s offered do you support most? (provided as decided)
Former Social Credit Premier Bill Vander Zalm and BC First Party    18 %
BC Opposition leader Carole James and BC New Democratic Party    34 %
Federal Conservative MP John Cummins and BC Conservative Party    13 %
Surrey mayor Dianne Watts and BC Liberals    19.5 %
Environmental activist Jane Sterk and Green Party    12.5 %
Other BC party    2.5 %
None of these leaders and party(s)    17 %
Undecided    12 %
Question #3
Do you support the Harmonized Sales Tax?
Yes    17 %
No    77.5 %
Undecided    5 %
Question #4
The BC Liberal government under Gordon Campbell has represented to the public that they introduced the HST to British Columbians without warning because they only had a little time after the May 9, 2009 general provincial election to accept the HST offer from the federal government. Documents reveal that the Campbell government actually had until March 31, 2010 or almost one year prior to Implementation date under the agreement. Based on this information which of the following response choices BEST reflects your opinion of the Gordon Campbell BC Liberal government based on this new information?
I am more angry    37 %
I am less angry    0 %
I could not be more angry    48.5 %
I am not angry    8.5 %
Undecided    8 %
Question #5
British Columbia has fixed election dates, but this does not mean a general provincial election could not be held sooner. If an election could be held with an underlying referendum question on the HST--- 5 months from now or in April 2011 - would you support it being called?
Yes    63.5 %
No    21 %
Undecided    16 %
Commentary
Highest above (below) random/score (including all responses and Undecided) (Total: 2020.5); average 183.68; Random is 100. 1. Carole James and New Democrat support from Question #2; (272) avg (148) 2. I could not be more angry from Question #4; (242.5) (132)(tie with 3) 3. “No” to finding Gordon Campbell’s resignation acceptable from Question #1; (242) (132) (tie with 2) 4. “No” to support for the HST; (233) (127) 5. “Yes” to general provincial election, April 1, 2011 (191) (109) 6. I am more angry from Question #4; (185) (100.5) 7. Dianne Watts and BC Liberal support from Question #2; (156) (85) 8. Bill Vander Zalm and BC First support from Question #2; (144) (78.5) 9. No support for any leader and party from Question #2; (136) (74) 10. John Cummins and BC Conservative support from Question #2; (104) (56.5) 11. Jane Sterk and BC Green support from Question #2 (100) (54.5)
North and Interior: (decided %)
Bill Vander Zalm and BC First tops this ROBBINS poll in British Columbia’s North and Interior region with (24.5%) support. Carole James and New Democrats are close with (24%), followed by John Cummins and BC Conservatives with (19%), Dianne Watts and BC Liberals (16%), and Jane Sterk and BC Green Party (12%). (15%) of respondents in this region do not support any of the response choices provided, while (14%) are undecided.
Lower Mainland: (decided %)
Carole James tops this ROBBINS poll in the lower mainland of British Columbia with (34%), followed by Dianne Watts and BC Liberals (22.5%), Bill Vander Zalm and BC First (17%), John Cummins and BC Conservatives (12.5%), and Jane Sterk and BC Green Party (11.5%). (17%) of respondents in this region do not support any of the response choices provided, while (21%) are undecided.
Vancouver Island (decided %)
Carole James dominates public support on Vancouver Island with (44.5%) support, followed by Dianne Watts and BC Liberals with (17.5%), Jane Sterk and BC Green (15%), Bill Vander Zalm and BC First (13%), and John Cummins and BC Conservatives (8%).
In question #1 (82%) of decided respondents in the province of British Columbia DO NOT accept the terms of premier Gordon Campbell’s resignation. Only (24%) of respondents who support Surrey mayor Dianne Watts and BC Liberal party in question #2 ALSO support premier Campbell’s resignation terms, while (4%) of Bill Vander Zalm and BC First supporters and (3%) of John Cummins and BC Conservatives supporters – also support the Premier’s resignation terms.
In question #3 (18%) of decided British Columbians support the Harmonized Sales Tax. Just over (50%) of respondents who support Surrey mayor Dianne Watts and BC Liberal Party support the HST, while (12%) of supporter s of Carole James and New Democratic Party support the HST. The BC Green Party is on record supporting the HST however only (47%) of its supporters in the province do. (3%) of John Cummins and BC Conservative Party supporters also support the HST.
Question #4, the ‘angry question’ features approximately (10%) of respondents who are not angry with the fact that premier Campbell had one year to consult with the BC public over the HST and did not have to make the quick decision he did. Over (50%) of the minority ‘not angry’ pool are Carole James and New Democrat supporters, while (30%) of decided respondents who are ‘not angry’ are Bill Vander Zalm and BC First supporters, and (11%) are Dianne Watts and BC Liberal supporters.
Question #5 provides interesting responses into which leader and party supporters (or other) want an election with HST referendum underneath this April 1, 2011. (55%) of Bill Vander Zalm and BC First supporters also support an election including HST referendum question, while (60%) of Carole James and BC New Democrats support the election and referendum. (51%) of Dianne Watts BC Liberal supporters – support a spring 2011 provincial election/referendum, (37.5%) of BC Greens support a spring election/referendum, and (46%) John Cummins BC Conservative support provincial election/referendum. Question #5 also gives approval to costs associated with Recall and any by-elections which might follow.
(83%) ---- Eighty-three per cent of Undecided respondents from question #2 support an April 1, 2011 spring general provincial election in British Columbia with underlying referendum.
Question #1 tells us that when properly informed, an unequivocal majority of British Columbians do not find BC Liberal premier Gordon Campbell’s recent version of a resignation acceptable. Question #4 confirms how angry the public is with Gordon Campbell as he is found to be most unclear with information provided to the public relative to the facts under the Agreement between the federal government and the BC government relating to the H.S.T.
Under the HST Agreement between Canada and British Columbia, Part II, Implementation – specifically section 4 “The parties agree that Canada will make best efforts to introduce, on or before March 31, 2010 the necessary legislative amendments to give affect to the agreement.”
Premier Campbell, finance minister Hansen and the BC Liberal government ought to have made the agreement with the federal government conditional on a consultation with the BC public, including a referendum/plebiscite within 4-5 months of the announcement just after the May 2009 provincial election. NO respondents in this poll went searching for scapegoats or other excuses – in support of Campbell’s contention that he had ‘no choice’.
The BC public needs to see proof that Stephen Harper’s government forced them into a shotgun deal on the HST, directly after the May 2009 provincial election, otherwise this Implementation date of March 2010 strongly supports – among a plethora of other lies, mistruths or misrepresentation (spin) advanced by the premier and his BC Liberal government, including lies, mistruths or misrepresentations about the amount of deficit on the provincial books – prior to and during the April-May general provincial election.
Question #3 tells us that the HST will not be supported by British Columbians – probably ever. All the incremental efforts and gamesmanship on the part of the establishment regime including the mainstream press, polling companies, etc. will not change this to the positive.
Question #5 affirms our assertion with respect to the powerful anti-HST sentiment in the province of British Columbia, as nearly as many respondents in this poll support an April 1, 2011 provincial general election with HST referendum in British Columbia as support the total of leaders and parties offered in Question #2 (94.5%), including many of the Undecided from Question #2.
Final Word(s)
Carole James and the BC New Democrats are set to win a majority government. Those questioning her leadership according to this ROBBINS poll are wasting their time. As leader of the New Democratic Party she easily proves the winner of this poll with her support relative to random/averaging above all other responses.
The BC New Democrats are set to win every seat on Vancouver Island, most in the lower mainland of the province save perhaps for some in Richmond, Langley and the Fraser Valley. The BC NDP given these numbers are certain to win a few seats in the North and Interior of the province, however the remainder are up for grabs.
Under the present circumstances, Dianne Watts cannot win against Carole James and the BC NDP, in fact she would likely lose badly. Gordon Campbell cannot simply say he is resigning, he must be seen by the BC public to have gone – completely – utterly and unequivocally –far---far--away-to give the BC Liberal party a prayer at resurrection.
Dianne Watts has one opportunity only—and she is the one opportunity the BC Liberal government has. She would need to win an expedited BC Liberal leadership race, likely before Valentines Day – speak about HST relief through a provincial election (coming soon) and HST referendum in the spring of 2011. A spring cleaning – if you will. The BC Conservatives WILL take voters from the BC Liberals if Dianne Watts--- waits – and the current Campbell charade is permitted to continue. However, a quick response from Ms. Watts might bring enough British Columbians back to the BC Liberal fold – to bring the government back from the dead – with a bona fide shot at upsetting or challenging the BC New Democrats. Moreover, under this strategy current BC First, BC Conservative, and some BC Greens and Undecided voters who want an election and referendum sooner than later, might come aboard. It’s bold, it’s beautiful –it’s all Dianne Watts and the BC Liberals have.
But Gordon Campbell has to resign completely from politics with a firm date NOW!
Bill Vander Zalm and the new BC First party benefit the longer Campbell stays on and the question of the HST remains open, as do the BC Conservatives. Successful Recall without an abrupt and distinct change from the BC Liberal Party under Dianne Watts – will force by-elections, which I suspect the BC NDP would win. If enough seats change hands to provide Carole James with the premiership and the New Democrats with government – and will permit British Columbians including those a little wary of her, to see her in that role and become comfortable with her – knowing that she takes over the position from a government in serious disrepute, and a premier they do not trust and frankly are sick of – thereby permitting an extended political honeymoon for her. In this scenario, the BC NDP would be in a position to call a provincial election –/ – and win a super majority—with most British Columbians even those British Columbians, not completely enamored with the prospect of a Carole James led NDP government letting them “have a chance”.
Bill Vander Zalm and Fight HST are slowwwwly bringing British Columbians relief from political circumstances and the HST tax, synonymous with premier Gordon Campbell, both of which--they have come to loathe. Surrey mayor Dianne Watts as leader of the BC Liberal Party can bring final relief to the BC public – from the HST and Gordon Campbell with one fell swoop of her magic premier wand ---forcing the wedge deeper in the “current NDP political incongruence” over Carole James leadership, with the surprise BC blitzkrieg (lightning war) maneouvre of a spring election call and HST referendum underneath. Neither the BC First or BC Conservatives would be properly prepared for this election, AND Bill Vander Zalm, Chris Delaney would be removed as an impediment to her objectives.
In so doing, Dianne Watts would remove the negative of 2,3,4 and 6 negative impediments from above (anger against Campbell and HST), and place herself and the BC Liberals at number “7” against Carole James and the New Democrats at number “1” – off balance – reducing the impact of Bill Vander Zalm “8” – and BC Conservatives “10” – AND (bonus) potentially bringing the “no leader and party” and “Undecided” from Question #2 onto her side of the political ledger.
A ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) poll of all of British Columbia - including 806 respondents, conducted November 4-9, 2010 featuring a margin of error (M.O.E. of 3.45%), 19 times out of 20, @ 95% confidence (final numbers for leader and party adjusted to properly reflected gender - regional breakdowns adjusted to best efforts).

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