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glen p robbins - featuring Vancouver City, Gregor Robertson, Michael Ignatieff, Christy Clark, Carole James, Jenny Kwan, Moira Stilwell
This poll was completed prior to Carole James announcement to resign  Dec 06, 2010

A random telephone - glen p robbins - poll of 421 respondents in the beautiful City of Vancouver, British Columbia, conducted December 2-6, 2010. This poll features a Margin of Error of 4.77%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence.

Question #1
How would you rate the performance of Vancouver City mayor Gregor Robertson to date?
Good    38 %
Fair    31 %
Poor    24 %
Undecided    7 %
Question #2
I support Michael Ignatieff AND the Federal Liberal Party.
Yes    24 %
No    49 %
Undecided    27 %
Question #3
I would prefer to see Christy Clark next leader of the BC Liberal Party?
Yes    11 %
No    50 %
Undecided    39 %
Question #4
Do you support Carole James as leader of the BC New Democrats?
Yes    35 %
No    42 %
Undecided    23 %
Question #5
Which of these political actors and generally well known personalities with description do you most support?
NDP leader Carole James    31 %
CKNW talk show host Christy Clark    12 %
Vancouver East MLA and progressive New Democrat Jenny Kwan    11 %
BC Liberal leadership contender Moira Stilwell    6 %
Undecided    39.5 %
Commentary
Gregor Robertson leads our politico’s in popularity in this glen p robbins poll. I would suggest this is because he is the only one in power of those names and labels sampled. Based on “Good” and “Poor” response decisions the mayor of Vancouver comes out (61.2%) “Good” and (38.8%) “Poor”. Including Undecided as a response choice Mayor Robertson scores positively-- (52%) above random - and acts as a kind of baseline for the remainder of questions which follow.
Michael Ignatieff AND the federal Liberal Party support is well below the near (40%) the party achieved in the 2008 federal general election under Stephane Dion. If “Yes” (affirmative support) equates to “Good” than Michael Ignatieff and the federal Liberal Party achieved only (63.5%) of the support (“Yes”) for Gregor Robertson achieved in question 1. Including Undecided as a response choice Michael Ignatieff scores (27.5%) below random. This result could impact negatively on longtime Federal Liberal Christy Clark if she attempts a run for BC Liberal leader.
In question 3 potential BC Liberal candidate Christy Clark does very poorly based on “Yes” relative to “Poor”. One half of respondents in the city of Vancouver reject their “preference” “to see (her) as the “next leader of the BC Liberal Party” outright. This is not just negativity about Christy - its hostile responses about the BC Liberal party too. The very high Undecided may be of some consolation to Ms. Clark, however the combined “most support” for both Christy Clark and declared BC Liberal candidate Moira Stilwell equals only (31.1%) of support in question 5 compared to much higher totals for Carole James and Jenny Kwan.
{At publication time - BC NDP leader Carole James had expressed her intention to resign - while Gordon Campbell declared that he may resign as MLA in Vancouver Point Grey (for Christy Clark?)). Polling had ceased prior to these announcements. There is evidence that some respondents in this poll may be actively ‘involved’ in politics in BC/Vancouver.
In question 4 BC NDP leader Carole James scores (45.5%) decided support with room to grow. In question 5 competing for support against “Vancouver East progressive New Democrat” Jenny Kwan both Ms. James and Ms Kwan combine for (44%) support and (68.9%) decided support. Their combined decided support is (11.3%) higher than Gregor Robertson’s support in question 1.
(Former) BC NDP leader Carole James’ resignation today - comes at a time when New Democrat numbers are very good. Although Carole James numbers are not quite as good, they look pretty good in the City of Vancouver --(92.5%) of Gregor Robertson’s the only office holder in the polling questions - who looks a shoo in to repeat as mayor of Vancouver.
Christy Clark’s numbers are not so good - however Carole James resignation opens up what we conjecture to be about (21%) MORE support for her to challenge for -- enough to possibly make her interesting in the BC Liberal leadership race, but not sufficient to compete with Vancouver mayor and former BC NDP Gregor Robertson’s totals. Ms. Clark’s support is currently anemic/ evidence that her being out of politics/makes her more of a souffle than a cake the people could eat.
BC Premier for a decade Gordon Campbell - has opened a spot for Christy in Point Grey (potentially) -- but she still has to impress the residual BC Liberal supporters in Vancouver city that she is worthy of party support - I don’t like her chances.
I am not certain Carole James made the right decision resigning - unless she intends to seek the leadership again. If she does, and she wins - she is Premier for certain if these Vancouver results mean anything. A leadership race compels dissidents to put up or shut up - in any event - it looks good for the BC New Democrats.
If the BC Liberals are hoping that Christy Clark can bring them back from the dead - I would not be the one lining up to place my bet on her success without significant odds.

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