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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics March 15, 2012
  Mar 15, 2012

A targeted sample of 1,047 British Columbia citizens eligible to vote in provincial general elections. Poll conducted between January 27, 2011 and February 5, 2011 throughout all regions and areas of the province, most specifically the Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island and the North and Interior of the province. This poll features a margin of error of 3.03%, 19 times out of 20 @95% confidence.

Question #1
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All eligible voters/respondents- B.C.)
BC NDP Party    25 %
BC Liberal Party    16.5 %
BC Conservative Party    8 %
BC Green Party    6.5 %
(New) BC First Party    5.5 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer/All Other    39 %
Question #2
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All “decided” eligible voters/respondents- B.C.)
BC NDP Party    40.5 %
BC Liberal Party    27 %
BC Conservative Party    13 %
BC Green Party    10.5 %
(New) BC First Party    9 %
Question #3
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All “decided” eligible voters/respondents- ex (New) BC First Party-B.C.)
BC NDP Party    44.5 %
BC Liberal Party    29.5 %
BC Conservative Party    14 %
BC Green Party    11.5 %
Question #4
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All eligible voters/respondents -Lower Mainland)
BC NDP Party    20 %
BC Liberal Party    18.5 %
(New) BC First Party    7 %
BC Green Party    6 %
BC Conservative Party    5 %
Undecided/Can't Answer/All Other    43 %
Question #5
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All “decided” eligible voters/respondents-Lower Mainland)
BC NDP Party    35.5 %
BC Liberal Party    32.5 %
(New) BC First Party    12.5 %
BC Green Party    10.5 %
BC Conservative Party    8.5 %
Question #6
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All “decided” eligible voters/respondents- ex (New) BC First-Lower Mainland)
BC NDP Party    40.5 %
BC Liberal Party    37.5 %
BC Green Party    12 %
BC Conservative Party    10 %
Question #7
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All eligible voters/respondents-North and Interior)
BC NDP Party    23 %
BC Liberal Party    19 %
BC Conservative Party    9 %
BC Green Party    4 %
(New) BC First Party    4 %
Undecided/Can't Answer/All Other    40 %
Question #8
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All “decided” eligible voters/respondents-North and Interior)
BC NDP Party    38.5 %
BC Liberal Party    31.5 %
BC Conservative Party    16 %
BC Green Party    7 %
(New) BC First Party    7 %
Question #9
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All “decided” eligible voters/respondents-ex (New) BC First-North and Interior)
BC NDP Party    41.5 %
BC Liberal Party    34 %
BC Conservative Party    16 %
BC Green Party    7.5 %
Question #10
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All eligible voters/respondents-Vancouver Island)
BC NDP Party    36 %
BC Conservative Party    12 %
BC Liberal Party    10 %
BC Green Party    10 %
(New) BC First Party    3.5 %
Undecided/Can't Answer/All Other    27 %
Question #11
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All “decided” eligible voters/respondents-Vancouver Island)
BC NDP Party    51 %
BC Conservative Party    17 %
BC Liberal Party    14 %
BC Green Party    14 %
(New) BC First Party    4.5 %
Question #12
Which one of the following provincial political party labels from the response choices offered as an eligible voter in British Columbia are you most attracted to? (All “decided” eligible voters/respondents-ex (New) BC First Party-Vancouver Island)
BC NDP Party    53 %
BC Conservative Party    17 %
BC Liberal Party    15.5 %
BC Green Party    15.5 %
Question #13
In a BC province wide referendum would you vote FOR or AGAINST the HST? (All eligible voters/respondents-BC)
FOR    23 %
AGAINST    52.5 %
Question #14
In a BC province wide referendum would you vote FOR or AGAINST the HST? (Decided eligible voters/respondents-BC)
FOR    30.5 %
AGAINST    69.5 %
Question #15
In a BC province wide referendum would you vote FOR or AGAINST the HST? (Decided eligible voters/respondents-Lower Mainland)
FOR    32 %
AGAINST    68 %
Question #16
In a BC province wide referendum would you vote FOR or AGAINST the HST? (Decided eligible voters/respondents-North and Interior)
FOR    25 %
AGAINST    75 %
Question #17
In a BC province wide referendum would you vote FOR or AGAINST the HST? (Decided eligible voters/respondents-Vancouver Island)
FOR    27 %
AGAINST    73 %
Question #18
Entertainment Question: Currently, the two main political parties in British Columbia, the BC Liberal and BC NDP are holding leadership races. Are you able to name (2) leadership candidates from each of these two main political parties-the BC Liberals and BC NDP?
Yes I can    9 %
No I cannot    81 %
Commentary
Among eligible voters in British Columbia the BC NDP Party holds a 7.5% lead over the governing BC Liberals based on the question of which party labels eligible voters are most attracted to. Among “decided” eligible voters the BC NDP holds a 13.5% lead over the BC Liberals provincially.
The BC Liberals hold their leadership contest in just over two weeks. These numbers reflect a general mistrust of the BC Liberal government by eligible voters in British Columbia. This mistrust is most acute on Vancouver Island.
The BC Conservative Party chooses a leader in a few months and the support the party label attracts marks a clear split on the centre right of the political spectrum in British Columbia with the BC Liberal Party. The BC Green Party continues to split the centre left of political parties in B.C. however the centre left parties attract 51% of all eligible voters in BC, while the centre right parties attract 40% with the inclusion of the variable of a new party label, the BC First Party.
Among all eligible voters in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, the BC NDP Party holds a slight 1.5% lead over the BC Liberal Party. Among decided eligible voters that lead increases to 3%. The centre left party labels in the Lower Mainland hold the attraction of 46% of decided BC voters while the centre right holds 41% of decided BC voters residing in the Lower Mainland of BC.
The (New) BC First Party holds the attraction of 12.5% of decided eligible BC voters in the lower mainland of BC. The Party is lead by Fight HST organizer Chris Delaney and holds its first party AGM this spring in Kamloops BC. Including the (New) BC First Party 56.5% of eligible voters are attracted to one of the five party label responses offered.
The BC New Democrats have the most attractive political party label in the North and Interior of the province. Among all eligible voters they hold a 4% lead over the BC Liberal Party. Among decided eligible voters the lead increases to 7%. The BC Conservative Party has high attraction among the provincial minority parties offered as choices-- in the North and Interior of the Province. This is the only region of the province where the attraction to traditional centre right parties is higher than for centre left parties.
The BC NDP Party label is far more attractive to eligible BC voters than all other party labels added together on Vancouver Island. The BC Conservative Party label is now more attractive to eligible voters than the BC Liberal Party label on Vancouver Island.
A clear majority of eligible voters in British Columbia are AGAINST the HST and would vote that way in a Referendum. Although not all eligible voters attracted to the BC Liberal Party label also support the HST, the decided number of eligible voters who support that party label across the province of British Columbia is similar to the number who supports the HST. Respondents who support all of the other party support the HST to varying degrees: 77% of BC Liberal, 52% BC Green, 23% BC Conservative, 19% BC NDP, 4% BC First Parties’ supports the Harmonized Sales Tax. Based on these numbers, particularly in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia it is fair to put forth the theory that a (New) BC First Party is a viable response the BC voters negative impressions of the HST, notwithstanding the resignation of Premier Gordon Campbell. Whether or not that party becomes viable at voting time is another question.
British Columbians have not sorted out who is who and with what party in the BC Liberal and BC NDP leadership races. The overwhelming majority are not able to name four leadership candidates in total—2 from each party. Regional breakdowns of support will impact on decisions about which candidate would make the best choice to lead each of the two main parties and select the next Premier of BC.
This is a regional poll. With the BC Liberals set to determined how their member voting system will be applied (one member one vote or all constituencies equivalent) on February 12, 2011 and with their leadership and a new Premier to follow, only regional polls are relevant at this time. (Often polling firms simply use lower mainland totals as BC totals).
The BC NDP has a slight lead in the lower mainland and north and interior of the province, however the BC Conservative label is more attractive to Vancouver Island voters than the BC Liberal label is currently. The two main party top leadership candidates appear set to play off one another with Christy Clark (Vancouver) as leader countered best with Mike Farnworth (Port Coquitlam), Kevin Falcon (Surrey) best countered by Adrian Dix (Vancouver) and John Horgan (Juan de Fuca) countered by George Abbott (Shuswap).
BC Liberal leadership candidates vying to be next Premier will have a problem on their hands. The BC voter does not want the HST and relief by way of earlier Referendum (June 2011) seems doubtful now. Suggestions of any new changes such as On Line voting or mail in ballots will likely be cause for more complaints from the BC public who are mistrustful of the government and anecdotally not particularly enamored with the candidates set to replace the unpopular outgoing Premier Gordon Campbell.

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