| Commentary |
| Stephen Harper and Conservative Party are down in support from 2008 voters (13.13%)- from voting percentage they received in 2008 general election Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party are up in support (7.95%) from 2008 Stephane Dion and Liberal Party general election totals. Jack Layton and NDP are down (3.42%) from 2008 election totals. Gilles Duceppe and BQ Party down (13.2%), while Elizabeth May and Green Party are down (16.35%). |
| Of the (5.92%) of Undecided/Can’t Answer respondents, (42%) of these voted Conservative in the last general federal election in 2008 based on question 1 response. (24%) of the total (6.44%) of Undecided in the Province of Quebec voted Bloc Quebecois in the 2008 general election. (17%) of Undecided voted Liberal in 2008. |
| If current Undecided respondents from question 2 voted their 2008 choices from question 1 the maximum support for Stephen Harper and Conservatives is (34.80%), while the maximum support for Michael Ignatieff and Liberals is (29.50%). Based on scientific balance of probability there is no significant difference between Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party and Michael Ignatieff and his Liberal Party support totals-though on average the federal Conservatives have a 92% likelihood of a lead. |
| This ROBBINS Sce Research poll differs markedly from recent Ipsos Reid and Ekos polls which mutually reflect the Conservatives with a significant statistical lead over the Liberals based on 100% statistical probability. |
| Both Stephen Harper and Conservative Party, and Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party raw numbers in the Province of Quebec are equal to the support they received in 2008 before factoring Undecided. At this point in time it appears that both of these federal parties could compel Bloc Quebecois numbers downward slightly with a residual seat exchange total likely. |
| Conservatives are down most noticeably in Ontario to (34%) and British Columbia to (34%), while Liberals are up in Ontario and BC, (36%) and (25%) respectively. Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party lead Stephen Harper and Conservative Party in Canada’s three largest provinces-Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia by a margin of (50.57%) to (49.33%) based on the combined support between them. |
| Jack Layton and New Democrats are up in British Columbia (32%) but down residually in all other provinces--which deficit can be explained statistically by Undecided through questions 1 and 2. |
| Elizabeth May and Green Party support is fading (somewhat) based on support transfer from EM and GP in question 1 to other parties in question 2. |
| Based on the numbers in this Glen Robbins-ROBBINS Sce Research poll it is very unlikely that if an election were called tomorrow, Stephen Harper and Conservative Party would not win a majority. This assertion is predicated on 3 significant observations. First, Michael Ignatieff is taking 2008 Conservative support in Ontario. Second, British Columbia is down from 2008 no matter how the numbers are considered. Third, the Conservative Party appears to be gaining residual support in Quebec but at the same rate as the Liberal Party who had slightly higher support to begin with The manner in which these increases may materialize in seat numbers will ultimately tell the story should a federal election be called and similar support be converted to votes. |
| Conservatives: BC (34%); Alberta (57%); Saskatchewan (51%); Manitoba (46%) Ontario (34%); Atlantic Provinces (37%) |
| Liberals: BC (25%); Alberta (22%); Saskatchewan (22%); Manitoba (24%); Ontario (36%); Quebec (23%); Atlantic Provinces (41%) |
| NDP: BC (31.5%); Alberta (17%); Saskatchewan (24%); Manitoba (24%); Ontario (18%); Quebec (10%); Atlantic Provinces (16%). |
