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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics March 22, 2011
  Mar 22, 2011

Methodology: This is a survey of 1,030 targeted respondents in strategic calling environments across the country who are voters from the 2008 general federal election in Canada. These respondents were asked “If a federal general election were held tomorrow for which leader and party would you caste your ballot?” between March 14-21, 2011 with the majority of responses from March 16, 17, 18, 2011. Best effort was made to maintain continuity between number of respondents and population size. Ontario MOE (5.09%); Quebec (6.73%); British Columbia (6.26%) with no MOE provided for all other provinces.
This poll based on sample size features a scientific Margin of Error of (3.05%), 19 times out of 20 @95% confidence and 92% likelihood that Stephen Harper and Conservatives have a lead over Michael Ignatieff and Liberals based on national totals. Based on inference of response including measurement of Undecided ROBBINS declares the unscientific M.O.E. to be (1.25%).

Question #1
For which leader and party did you caste your ballot in the October 2008 general federal election?
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party    37.03 %
Stephane Dion and Liberal Party    26.53 %
Jack Layton and New Democrat Party    18.12 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois Party    9.32 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party    7.40 %
Question #2
If a federal general election were held tomorrow for which leader and party would you caste your ballot?
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party    32.31 %
Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party    28.64 %
Jack Layton and New Democrat Party    17.50 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois Party    8.10 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party    6.19 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer/O.P    6.84 %
Commentary
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party are down in support from 2008 voters (13.13%)- from voting percentage they received in 2008 general election Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party are up in support (7.95%) from 2008 Stephane Dion and Liberal Party general election totals. Jack Layton and NDP are down (3.42%) from 2008 election totals. Gilles Duceppe and BQ Party down (13.2%), while Elizabeth May and Green Party are down (16.35%).
Of the (5.92%) of Undecided/Can’t Answer respondents, (42%) of these voted Conservative in the last general federal election in 2008 based on question 1 response. (24%) of the total (6.44%) of Undecided in the Province of Quebec voted Bloc Quebecois in the 2008 general election. (17%) of Undecided voted Liberal in 2008.
If current Undecided respondents from question 2 voted their 2008 choices from question 1 the maximum support for Stephen Harper and Conservatives is (34.80%), while the maximum support for Michael Ignatieff and Liberals is (29.50%). Based on scientific balance of probability there is no significant difference between Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party and Michael Ignatieff and his Liberal Party support totals-though on average the federal Conservatives have a 92% likelihood of a lead.
This ROBBINS Sce Research poll differs markedly from recent Ipsos Reid and Ekos polls which mutually reflect the Conservatives with a significant statistical lead over the Liberals based on 100% statistical probability.
Both Stephen Harper and Conservative Party, and Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party raw numbers in the Province of Quebec are equal to the support they received in 2008 before factoring Undecided. At this point in time it appears that both of these federal parties could compel Bloc Quebecois numbers downward slightly with a residual seat exchange total likely.
Conservatives are down most noticeably in Ontario to (34%) and British Columbia to (34%), while Liberals are up in Ontario and BC, (36%) and (25%) respectively. Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party lead Stephen Harper and Conservative Party in Canada’s three largest provinces-Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia by a margin of (50.57%) to (49.33%) based on the combined support between them.
Jack Layton and New Democrats are up in British Columbia (32%) but down residually in all other provinces--which deficit can be explained statistically by Undecided through questions 1 and 2.
Elizabeth May and Green Party support is fading (somewhat) based on support transfer from EM and GP in question 1 to other parties in question 2.
Based on the numbers in this Glen Robbins-ROBBINS Sce Research poll it is very unlikely that if an election were called tomorrow, Stephen Harper and Conservative Party would not win a majority. This assertion is predicated on 3 significant observations. First, Michael Ignatieff is taking 2008 Conservative support in Ontario. Second, British Columbia is down from 2008 no matter how the numbers are considered. Third, the Conservative Party appears to be gaining residual support in Quebec but at the same rate as the Liberal Party who had slightly higher support to begin with The manner in which these increases may materialize in seat numbers will ultimately tell the story should a federal election be called and similar support be converted to votes.
Conservatives: BC (34%); Alberta (57%); Saskatchewan (51%); Manitoba (46%) Ontario (34%); Atlantic Provinces (37%)
Liberals: BC (25%); Alberta (22%); Saskatchewan (22%); Manitoba (24%); Ontario (36%); Quebec (23%); Atlantic Provinces (41%)
NDP: BC (31.5%); Alberta (17%); Saskatchewan (24%); Manitoba (24%); Ontario (18%); Quebec (10%); Atlantic Provinces (16%).

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