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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics March 25, 2011
  Mar 25, 2011

Question #1
Which B.C. political leader and party provided as response choices would you support if a provincial election were held in B.C. tomorrow?
Mike Farnworth and New Democratic Party    37.86 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party    33.33 %
John Cummins and BC Conservative Party    6.81 %
Jane Sterk and BC Green Party    10.02 %
Chris Delaney and BC First Party    3.37 %
Undecided/Can‘t Answer    8.55 %
Question #2
According to Statistics Canada, Alberta school children K-12 produce the best reading and math test results in the World, with BC school children not far behind them. There is evidence that the more teacher’s are paid the better that students perform on reading and math comprehension tests, with BC teachers being paid about 5-10% less than Alberta teachers on the low and high end of the pay scales on average. BC teachers have a much higher rate of retirement than does Alberta---with new teachers coming into the system earning the lower rate of pay. Would you support a pay raise for BC Public School teachers to make salaries equivalent to those of Alberta school teachers, which if you believe Statistics Canada- would ultimately produce BC students in K-12 who the best educated in the World, at a cost to BC tax payers of approximately $150 million dollars per year? (46 repeats).
Yes    47.39 %
No    38.92 %
Undecided    13.69 %
Question #3
In your opinion should Catholic and Sikh private Independent schools be provided with any resources from the Ministry of Education to fund their schools?
Yes    17.53 %
No    71.51 %
Undecided    10.38 %
Commentary
Mike Farnworth, NDP leadership candidate and his BC New Democrat Party lead Christy Clark and BC Liberals (38%) to (33.5%) based on raw data in this Glen Robbins RSR survey of 2009 British Columbia voters. On a ‘decided’ basis Farnworth and the BC NDP leads Christy Clark and BC Liberals (41%) to (36%).
Mr. Farnworth - who is being challenged for the BC NDP leadership by New Democrats Adrian “Eastside Bomber” Dix, John “Hulk” Horgan, Nicholas “Socialist” Simon and Dana “Magic Dragon” Larsen-- reflects (96.5%) of 2009 B.C. general election totals achieved by Carole James and the BC NDP, while Christy “Love” Clark reflects (77.5%) of totals achieved by Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals from the May 2009 election.
Raw data from this survey scores Mike Farnworth and New Democrats at (48.5%) on Vancouver Island, (30%) in the North and Interior, and (36.5%) in the Lower Mainland of the Province. Christy Clark and BC Liberals achieve (25%) on Vancouver Island, (38.5%) in the North and Interior and (35%) in the Lower Mainland of the Province.
Undecided voters are (6.67%) on Vancouver Island, (12.62%) in the North and Interior and (7.48%) in the Lower Mainland of the Province.
Raw data reveals Jane Sterk and BC Green Party at (11%) on Vancouver Island, (8%) in the North and Interior, and (10.5%) in the Lower Mainland of the Province. Decided 2009 voter totals equal (11%) for Ms. Sterk and BC Greens - (57%) above actual 2009 B.C. general election totals. John Cummins-who has not been elected leader yet, and BC Conservatives decided support provincially is (7.5%).
(54%) of decided respondents support a raise for BC schoolteachers in question 2. (57%) of decided 2009 BC voters in the North and Interior support this raise, while (55%) decided respondents support the raise on Vancouver Island, and (51.5%) support the raise for schoolteachers in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia.
(79%) of decided B.C. voters from the 2009 provincial election DO NOT support “Catholic and Sikh private Independent schools” being provided with “any” resources from the Ministry of Education.-question 3. (82%) of decided respondents in the North and Interior DO NOT support funding private Independent schools, while (74%) of decided respondents on Vancouver Island and (80%) of respondents/voters residing in the Lower Mainland DO NOT support funding for private Independent schools.
Independent schools in British Columbia including Catholic and Sikh religious private schools-- account for approximately 12% of total enrollment in the province receiving upwards of 50% funding compared to public schools in the province.
Not funding the private independent schools (question 3) would pay for the B.C. public school teacher raises (question 2).
This Glen Robbins RSR- School Teachers- “Back in the Saddle” survey of British Columbia voters from the May 2009 provincial general election reveal the BC New Democrats led by Port Coquitlam MLA Mike -the Milkman-Farnworth would win the most seats if a legitimate general election were “held in B.C. tomorrow”, replacing new BC Liberal leader and Premier Christy Clark. B.C. voters support a raise for teachers to match their Alberta counterparts--their provincial next door neighbour which provides more money for its school teachers--more money for communities--with a much smaller taxation base than British Columbia has.
B.C. Voters in the unequivocal majority do not support “any” money for Catholic and Sikh Independent Schools.
I predict-- that the BC New Democrats are going to win the next provincial election in the Province of British Columbia whenever it is held. First, their numbers are holding. Second, British Columbians have generally had enough of the BC Liberals - and the HST remains outstanding, British Columbians don’t buy the argument that the BC Liberals are so magnificent on the economy (“the recessions over--stop lying”) as much as they are on helping their friends (BC Place Roof-Casino-Oil and Gas) and believe the BC Liberal government are cheapskates (see class act federal Liberal Ralph Goodale for definitions of political cheapskates)- with monies for communities and services.
Third Christy Clark has not proven that she represents change to the same extent that a new party would certainly fulfill that ambition. Fourth, at least one half of B.C. voters really don’t care for Christy Clark-- including -likely 10%- of those who voted BC Liberal in the May 2009 provincial general election. Fifth, the BC Conservatives will do better in a general provincial election than the (7.5%) they achieve in this Glen Robbins RSR survey-- and the additional votes they attract will be taken directly away from Christy Clark and BC Liberals ------/who voters continue to watch with a wary eye/.
Sixth, Chris Delaney is a better known political personality than is properly acknowledged and his numbers could improve when his BC First Party becomes better known. Despite Mr. Delaney’s claims to be centrist -implying he will take votes from both the BC NDP and BC Liberals- it is far more likely that he will in fact take votes from the voter pool - at a minimum accentuating John Cummins and BC Conservatives negative impact on Christy Clark will have to provide the Delaney-Vander Zalm Fight HST with equal dollars - that she spends to defend her colleagues in the BC Liberal Party who all support the HST--and second he will take more votes from the BC Liberals - Chris Delaney is a BC Reformer - plain and simple.
Anecdote from Undecided’s in question 1 would suggest that these 2009 voters are not leaning toward the BC Liberals.
Jane Sterk and BC Greens are up over (10%), 30% above their 2009 B.C. election totals. However both the federal and provincial Greens score higher in most polls pre-election. This fact and the fact that the BC New Democrats who are the next stop for lefties on the political spectrum have not elected their new leader yet--will support another boost for that leader likely in the 43-44%.
BC New Democrats have the wind at their back over negotiations with their allies the BC Teachers Federation for raises for B.C. school teachers as more provincial voters support a raise for teachers than support either the NDP or BC Liberal parties. Christy Clark-in charge of negotiations with B.C. school teachers is squeezed by a high minority of respondents/voters who do not want to provide a raise for B.C. school teachers and the further ‘drag’ that the a majority of the small number of respondents who support funding for Catholic and Sikh Independent schools in question 3-- are also BC Liberal supporters.
It is interesting to note that over one half of John Cummins and BC Conservative supporters in the North and Interior support raises for B.C. school teachers and an even higher percentage of these respondent/voters are against funding for Catholic and Sikh private independent schools, while Jane Sterk’s BC Greens overwhelmingly support the BC school teachers raise.
A targeted survey of 800 British Columbians between March 17-25, 2011 by Glen Robbins and RSR (1998) in this BC School Teachers ‘Back in the Saddle’ survey. These respondents are voters from the May 2009 provincial general election in British Columbia. The Margin of Error of this survey is (3.46%) plus or minus 19 times out of 20 at 95% confidence. This survey was paid for in part by Jim Van Rassel of New Trend Optical (604) 942-9300-- “I can see - Good God almighty I can really see”.

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