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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics April 11, 2011
  Apr 11, 2011

Question #1
Which of the following leaders and party would you vote for if the federal election were held tomorrow based on your opinion today? (Rotated) (Leaders and Party’s to 99.7%).
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    38.08 %
Michael Ignatieff and Liberal Party of Canada    35.74 %
Jack Layton and New Democratic Party of Canada    18.78 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    5.58 %
Other Party or Candidate    1.52 %
Undecided    7.72 %
Question #2
Is the price of gas making it difficult to balance your budget?
Yes    68 %
No    32 %
Question #3
From the following response choices ONLY - which one BEST reflects the most acceptable election outcome for you?
Conservative Majority    31 %
Liberal Majority    23.5 %
Conservative Minority    11 %
Liberal Minority    21.5 %
Commentary
Based on the response outcomes of this poll the Conservatives are down slightly (-2.5%) while the Liberals are up noticeably in the Province of Ontario (10.5%). Jack Layton’s New Democrats are up (3%), while Elizabeth May and The Green Party of down (-32%) from October 2008 totals.
Currently Michael Ignatieff has a clear opportunity to take 3- 4 seats from Stephen Harper in Ontario including Kitchener Centre-Kitchener Waterloo and London West. The Liberal Party of Canada needs to take at least 12 of the 14 seats they have a real shot at- from the Conservatives in Canada’s largest province-Ontario. If he fails to accomplish this objective - he will be blamed for the election.
Stephen Harper can afford to lose no more than 6 seats in Ontario - if his final seat tally is below 130 and the Liberals and NDP seat total is higher than this - than an environment exists for a Liberal - New Democrat coalition-likely acceptable to Canadians. In this case, there would eventually be calls to replace him as party leader.
(32.5%) more respondents in the Province of Ontario support a Tory majority than a Liberal majority, while (95%) more respondents in that province support a Liberal minority than a Tory minority. Overall (7%) more respondents in the Province of Ontario find a Liberal government more acceptable than a Conservative (Tory) government.
A clear majority of voters in the Province of Ontario are finding the price of gas “difficult” in terms of balancing their budget. Just less than one third of respondents respond “No” with many of these responses coming from the City of Toronto where the Conservative Party does less well than they do throughout the rest of the province.
Theories surrounding voter turnout must always consider The Province of Ontario because of its population and constituency number and subsequent influence on Parliament composition (34%). From 2006 to 2008 more voters were listed as “Electors on Lists” up (3.5%) with a corresponding decrease in actual voter totals of (8%).
Who didn’t show up to vote in 2008? The ‘new’ Electors on Lists (2008) or the ‘old’ Electors from 2006 - or some type of combination of the two? How many more Electors on Lists will there be for this 2011 federal general election? Motivation of voters will unquestionably factor in the final outcome with the implications reasonably drawn from this ROBBINS over the Province of Ontario - “Cherry Red or Midnight Blue.”
A targeted survey of 1,215 respondents who voted in the Fortieth General Election in Canada (2008) derived exclusively from the Province of Ontario, Canada’s largest province. Polling data was collected predominantly from outside of Canada with the remainder collected from within Canada between April 4-10, 2011. The scientific Margin of Error for this poll is 2.81%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. (Adjustments were made as to gender distribution based on population and geographic considerations - rural - suburban - urban).

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