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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics May 6, 2011
  May 06, 2011

Question #1
If a provincial election held in British Columbia tomorrow which leader and party would you support?
Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats    40.5 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives    23.2 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    22.6 %
Jane Sterk and BC Greens    6.7 %
Chris Delaney and BC First    5.9 %
Other    1.2 %
Undecided    12.8 %
Question #2
Given a situation where British Columbia did not sign on to Canada’s Constitution-would it be your position that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government should include BC and any other Canadian province that had not signed-- on to that Constitution now?
Yes    61 %
No    4 %
Other    34 %
Question #3
If you were able to vote in U.S. elections would you be likely or unlikely to vote for Barack Obama for President of the United States?
Likely    60 %
Unlikely    27 %
Commentary
Leader and Party decided totals based on region:
Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats-(41.8%) Lower Mainland; (31.4%) Fraser Valley; (28.5%) North and Interior; (54.9%) Vancouver Island.
John Cummins and BC Conservatives-(18.3%) Lower Mainland; (37.1%) Fraser Valley; (30.2%) North and Interior; (15.2%) Vancouver Island.
Christy Clark and BC Liberals-(22.8%) Lower Mainland; (18.5%) Fraser Valley; (27.7%) North and Interior; (19.8%) Vancouver Island.
Jane Sterk and BC Greens-(11.1%) Lower Mainland; (4.2%) Fraser Valley; (2.5%) North and Interior; (6.8%) Vancouver Island.
Chris Delaney and BC First-(3.9%) Lower Mainland; (8,5%) Fraser Valley; (9.2%) North and Interior; (3.0%) Vancouver Island.
Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats are currently running away with popular support in the Province of British Columbia. They own Vancouver Island - and dominate the Lower Mainland, are competitive in the Fraser Valley and the North Interior. If an election were held today the BC New Democrats would win a super majority of 60 seats.
Former Conservative MP John Cummins - becomes leader of the BC Conservatives at the end of May and he is gliding onto a ready Magic Carpet ride of public support in the province -and would likely win 10-15 seats if a provincial general election were held today.
Christy Clark and BC Liberals are collapsing in public support in the Province of British Columbia. At the time of the federal election call - BC retail media pundits - said it would be an advantage for Christy - not so fast - gassy Jack---in fact - the wild and weird federal election has emboldened British Columbians - and many of these want this BC Liberal government gone.
Jane Sterk and BC Greens aren’t collapsing - but they aren’t going anywhere. Elizabeth May’s federal astonishing Green win in Saanich and the Islands is not likely to be repeated in any provincial election soon.
Chris Delaney and his BC First are scratching and clawing their way up the popularity chart by incremental basis points - but the direction is up nonetheless - a good showing in the Vancouver Point Grey by-election can only do good for Mr. Delaney’s latest move into BC politics. Will the BC Conservative Party fire the existing Board of Directors in order to accommodate Delaney--bury the BC Liberals - and keep the B.C. New Democrats from running away with a super majority?
Although the truth of the matter is that British Columbia DID sign onto the Canadian Constitution (1982) - the fact of the matter is that most respondents were not aware or certain that we had. A super duper majority of respondents who answered “Yes” or “No” in this question are of the opinion that “BC and any other Canadian province” - should be “included” into “that Constitution now”. Well - Quebec wasn’t included - only 9 of 10 provinces were required to sign - and guess what - Quebec Canada's largest geographic and second most heavily populated province still isn’t happy about it.
Look at Barack Obama’s support from Canadians in British Columbia-- after American forces killed Terrorist leader Bin Laden!-----------British Columbians were crazy about the U.S. President before ---- this(70%) decided support in California north now makes U.S. President Barack Obama the most popular politician in the Province of British Columbia by a country mile.
Nearly one-half of (decided) BC Conservative Party supporters answered “Likely” to Obama-----(88%) of (decided) B.C. New Democrats - (64%) of (decided) BC Liberals, (91%) of Greens and (60%) of BC First supporter indicated they would be: “Likely to vote for Barack Obama for President of the United States if they were able to.”
Be awfully cool---- to see the American President up here wouldn’t it?
Methodology-A targeted survey of 543 British Columbians (who voted in the last BC provincial general election) contacted between May 3-6, 2011. Margin of Error (scientific) 4.2% plus or minus 19 times out of 20 @95% confidence. (This means the BC NDP may be as high as 44% or as low as 36%; BC Conservatives as high as 27% or as low as 16%, BC Liberals as high as 27% or as low as 15% etc.

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