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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics February 15, 2012
  Feb 15, 2012

Question #1
A by-election will be called in the coming weeks in your riding of Port Moody – Coquitlam. The main parties running candidates include: BC Liberals, BC New Democrats, and BC Conservatives – while the BC Greens are not running a candidate. At this moment in time which of these following parties are you presently favoring or leaning toward with your support? (3 political parties featured shown with percentages to 100%)
BC New Democrats    41 %
BC Conservatives    40.5 %
BC Liberals    18.5 %
Neither    9 %
Undecided/Can't Answer    24 %
Question #2
Joe Trasolini is the former mayor of Port Moody and is seeking voter support to be elected MLA in this by-election. Do you support Joe Trasolini’s candidacy?
Yes    32.3 %
No    67.4 %
Undecided    29 %
Question #3
From the following response choices which is most important to you?
Murray Connector    9.2 %
Evergreen Line    30.7 %
Both the Murray Connector and Evergreen Line    27.6 %
Neither the Murray Connector nor the Evergreen Line    32.3 %
Undecided    00 %
Commentary
The BC Liberals appear to have no chance of winning the upcoming by-election in Port Moody Coquitlam to be held at or about this April 2012 based on the results of the ROBBINS NewTrend poll. The competition for the seat is clearly between the BC New Democrats and BC Conservatives.
BC Liberal support is found mostly with women (68%), who also support the BC NDP in the majority. This is opposite to a recent province wide Angus Reid poll which suggested that women did not support Christy Clark’s party. The BC New Democrats attract (58%) women to (42%) men. The killer for the BC Liberals is that the BC Conservative support is (55%) men and (45%) women and the fact that “Neither” and “Undecided” respondents in question 1 are nearly split perfectly between men and women.
Joe Trasolini is not as popular as some might have expected when he crossed over from BC Liberals to BC NDP. However, Joe has some additional good news and bad news in this ROBBINS NewTrend poll. The good news is that some respondents who supported “BC Liberals”, “Neither” and “Undecided” in question 1 support him in question 2. In further support of this good news, those respondents who anecdotally spoke of their recognition of Joe Trasolini’s new link to the BC New Democrats supported both he and the BC NDP Party.
The bad news for Joe Trasolini is that the minority of respondents who support Joe Trasolini who responded “Neither” or were “Undecided” in question 1 in the majority answered “Neither” in question 3. The point here is that the BC NDP brand is more popular than Joe Trasolini is, based primarily on two reasons: Male respondents don’t like him, and all BC Conservatives from question 1 rejected Joe Trasolini in question 2. Joe Trasolini may not be as popular as some might have expected but he’s pure poison to the BC Liberals who are being trounced by John Cummins BC Conservatives.
Question 3 provides some interesting feedback from Port Moody Coquitlam respondents. (67.5%) of residents in this provincial riding want The Evergreen Line, the Murray Connector, or “Both”. (32.5%) of residents do not want either (“Neither”). However 75% of response choices offer either the Murray Connector or Evergreen Line, while 25% of response (choice(s)) rejects them both.
A case could be made that as many as 40% of residents do not want either The Evergreen Line or the Murray Connector. This has serious political implications when we realize that (82%) of BC Conservative supporters (question 1) want one or both of the Evergreen Line with no BC Conservatives supporting the Murray Connector on its own. (90%) of BC Liberal supporters from question 1 support either the Murray Connector or The Evergreen Line. (72%) of BC New Democrats from question 1 support either The Evergreen Line or Murray Connector in question 3 with (16%) splitting Murray Connector support with BC Liberals.
A random telephone survey of 420 residents/respondents in the provincial riding of Port Moody Coquitlam between February 1-7, 2012. This survey has a margin of error of 4.73% plus or minus, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. This ROBBINS New Trend poll is sponsored in part by Jim Van Rassel who has selected the option of donating proceeds to the Gleneagle High School Girls Rugby Team – BC’s 2011 Story of Courage in High School Athletics (placing 6th in provincial finals with a player short, no spares, and two injured players).

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