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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics May 27, 2012
  May 27, 2012

Question #1
At this point in time which of the following main federal political parties in Canada do you currently support?
Federal New Democrats    34 %
Federal Conservatives    33 %
Federal Liberals    26.5 %
Other    6.5 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer    14 %
Question #2
Are you reasonably familiar with or have you heard or read about the Robo-call news scandal relating to the most recent federal general election in May 2011 where Canadians were called by an organization claiming to be Elections Canada when in fact they were not from that agency?
Yes    72.5 %
No    27.5 %
Question #3
How do you respond to this statement: The election of a Harper majority government last year is a ‘big improvement’ on the operation and function of Government in Canada over preceding minority governments?
I Agree    29.21 %
I Disagree    66.19 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer    4.5 %
Commentary
Stephen Harper’s Conservative government has a majority government and doesn’t have to face the Canadian people for another 3 years, but this ROBBINS NewTrend national poll suggests that he and his Conservative government will be confronted with trouble early in their majority mandate which may persist until the next federal election.
Trouble for Harper’s Conservatives begins with the election of Thomas Mulcair leader of the Federal New Democrats who is leading a New Democrat Party that for the first time in Canada’s history is the most popular of all federal political party’s with Canadians. Tough, solid and very smart, Mulcair is every bit Stephen Harper’s equal.
The Robo-Call/Elections Canada ‘fraud’ is a constant whisper among Canadians now, and is not going away with “Voters” apparently willing to wait and see – but looking at the Conservative Government as the possible benefactor of the calls.
This ROBBINS NewTrend poll suggests that the vast majority of 2011 “Voters” from the general federal election who are Undecided in this poll (question 1), do not see Stephen Harper’s majority government as a “big improvement” from his preceding minority governments.
Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats score at 2011 election levels in Quebec currently (43%), with Liberals down to (17%) and Conservatives at (11%) in Quebec. Stephen Harpers Conservatives remain in the lead in Ontario but have lost support down to (35%), with the Liberals at (31%) and the New Democrats (28.5%). In British Columbia the New Democrats lead with (38%), the Conservatives are down to (32%) and the Liberals have come up to (26%).
New Democrat gains occur primarily in Ontario and British Columbia, Canada’s 1st and 3rd largest provinces.
Across Canada’s three largest provinces: Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia the Federal New Democrats under new leader Thomas Mulcair score (34%), Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party score (27%), and Interim leader Bob Rae and his Liberal Party of Canada score (25.5%). Overall, in the nations most populous regions the Federal New Democrats are the new powerhouse on the block. It is only The Conservative Governments continued strength in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba which produces an aggregate popular lead to rival the popular New Democrats.
According to Toronto Star reporter Noor Javed in an article published Sunday, March 11, 2012 entitled “Robocalls: Protestors across country demand public inquiry into scandal”, there are “reports of 31,000 Canadians receiving Robocalls during the most recent Canadian general federal election in May 2011.”
In this ROBBINS NewTrend poll, nearly three out of four Canadians are “reasonably familiar” with the Robo-Calls/Elections Canada news scandal. Canadians were contacted during the general federal election last year by sources fraudulently representing themselves as Elections Canada personnel, misdirecting potential voters by informing them that election stations had been moved, when this was not true.
What impact these Robo-calls had on the election majority won by The Conservative Party of Canada last May 2011 is not known, but the fact that there is evidence that person or persons fraudulently represented themselves as Elections Canada employees, for presumably nefarious means, with the intention of interfering with the actions of voters, does not sit well with Canadians, evidenced in this poll by the high number familiar with the Robo-call scandal and the subsequent anecdote in accompaniment of some responses.
Disclosure/Methodology: This is a targeted sample of 1,003 “Voters” from the May 2, 2011 federal general election in Canada conducted March 21-26, 2012. The vote outcome at the time of the Canadian general federal election was as follows: Conservative Party (39.52%); NDP (30.62%), Liberal (19%), Other/Independent (10%). The Margin of Error in this ROBBINS NewTrend poll equals (3.09%), plus or minus – 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. In question 1 response choices are rotated except for “Other” and Undecided/Can’t Answer is not offered as a response choice. In question 1 the final outcomes are adjusted to more accurately represent gender as the raw data reflects a higher number of female respondents (56%). The Margin of Error for BC (3.85%) plus or minus. Ontario Margin of Error (6.8%); Quebec Margin of Error (8.61%). There is no Margin of Error provided for the Provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Atlantic Provinces.

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