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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics May 2, 2012
  May 02, 2012

Question #1
An oil company from Houston Texas plans to spend $5 billion to nearly triple the capacity of their pipeline(s) carrying Alberta crude oil to a terminal in Vancouver harbor. This oil would be shipped via 400 Super Tankers per year to Asia and the United States. Which response choice provides the best expression of your reaction to this news?
I am pleased at the prospects of employment and economic gain this brings to British Columbia    20 %
I am concerned about the potential environmental harm on land if the pipeline bursts or if there is an accident and the Tanker leaks    52 %
I would be more comfortable if we refined the oil locally to help reduce high heating costs    24 %
Undecided    4 %
Question #2
The pipeline expansion referred to in question 1 will involve consultation with BC aboriginals. One aboriginal band whose rights and land title encompass the Burrard Inlet and delivery terminal essential for the transport of the Alberta crude oil – are opposed to the pipeline expansion and increase in tanker traffic in Burrard Inlet and down BC’s coastal waters. Do you support the aboriginal band’s legal right to oppose the pipeline expansion?
Yes    68.5 %
No    24 %
Undecided    7.5 %
Question #3
Which leader and political party in British Columbia do you support at this time? (Leaders and Party presented to 100%).
Adrian Dix and BC New Democratic Party    46 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party    19 %
John Cummins and BC Conservative Party    18.5 %
Jane Sterk and Green Party of BC    16.5 %
Other Party/Undecided/Can’t Answer    17 %
Commentary
A clear majority of British Columbians residing in the lower mainland of the province are “concerned about the potential environmental harm on land if the pipeline bursts or if there is an accident and the Tanker leaks.” Approximately one in five respondents are “pleased at the prospects of employment and economic gain this brings to British Columbia”, while one quarter of respondents “would be more comfortable if we refined the oil locally to help reduce high heating costs.”
Based on the responses from question 1 of this poll, it can be inferred that (79%) of British Columbians residing in the lower mainland of the province are against the increase of oil capacity for the purposes of delivery by “Super Tanker” to “Asia and the United States.”
(73.5%) of (decided) British Columbians from this poll support aboriginal groups legal right to oppose the increase in Kinder Morgan pipeline capacity and resulting increase in “tanker traffic in Burrard Inlet and down BC’s coastal waters.”
BC New Democrats overwhelmingly dominate leader and party support from British Columbians in the lower mainland of the Province, while Christy Clark and BC Liberals, John Cummins and BC Conservatives and Jane Sterk and BC Greens are all within the margin of error.
Methodology- A random sample of 725 respondents residing in the lower mainland of the Province of British Columbia. This ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) – Green Party of BC poll was conducted April 21-28, (29th) 2012. Responses to questions 1 and 2 were obtained by callers from ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) and the Green Party of BC, while question 3 responses were obtained exclusively by ROBBINS Sce Research (1998). 118 responses were obtained for question 3 without questions 1 and 2 being offered for response (at all), with the outcomes of that pool of respondents being relatively consistent with the larger response pools. Margin of error based on 725 total responses is 3.64% plus or minus, 19 times out of 20 at 95% confidence. Decided support from question 1 for option (b) “I am concerned about the potential environmental harm on land if the pipeline bursts or if there is an accident and the Tanker leaks” could be as high as (57.5%) or as low as (50.5%). Decided support for (c) “I would be more comfortable if we refined the oil locally to help reduce high heating costs” could be as high as (28.5%) or as low as (22.5%). Decided support for (a) “I am pleased at the prospects of employment and economic gain this brings to British Columbia” could be as high as (24.5%) or as low as (17%).
Decided support for “support (of) the aboriginal band’s legal right to oppose the pipeline expansion” could be as high as (77%) or as low as (70%).
The BC NDP support could be as high as 49.5% or as low as 42.5%. BC Liberal support could be as high as 22.5%, or as low as 15.5%. BC Conservative support could be as high as 22% or as low as 15%. BC Green support could be as high as 20% or as low as 13%.
Question 3 (leader and party support) follows questions 1 and 2, which are questions relating to the increase in crude oil capacity and aboriginal legal rights. There is plenty of news in both sectors of media (mainstream and social) that suggest (or infer) that both John Cummins and BC Conservatives and Christy Clark and BC Liberals support the increase in capacity of the Kinder Morgan pipeline, while the BC Greens are against it, and (more clearly of late in social media) the BC New Democrats also clearly do not support it.
(Caveat(s) We have no knowledge if asking questions 1 and 2 in front of question 3 influences the outcomes of the responses on leader and party in question 3 though the numbers in support of the BC NDP (the party with the highest support) are consistent with other recent ROBBINS polls and polls conducted by other mainstream polling companies. The support for BC Liberals and BC Conservatives is within the range of recent polls by both ROBBINS and other mainstream pollsters while support for BC Greens is nearly double the support they received from voters in the 2009 general provincial election and on the higher side of recent public opinion support, although a most recent ROBBINS poll revealed support for the Green Party of BC in the 13-14% region.
In question 1 we purposefully include reference to the oil company Kinder Morgan being from Houston Texas, and make reference to “crude oil” and “Super Tankers”. We have no idea if this has any influence on the response. Option (b) in question 1 clearly references potential problems that could be caused by pipelines or tankers. We have no way of knowing if the fear of the leaks has a greater influence on response choice than the positive considerations of jobs offered in option (a) – compared with the implication of jobs considered under (c) –both from question 1. Question 2 clearly describes the legal rights that at least one aboriginal group does have. We have no way of knowing if this affirmation of fact influences the response outcome. (Glen P. Robbins).
For any further discussion of this poll please contact Ms. Jane Sterk, Leader of the Green Party of BC @ (250) 590-4537.

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