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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics May 26, 2012
  May 26, 2012

Question #1
Which leader and party in Canada do you support at this time? (Leaders and Party to 100%)
Thomas Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    34.29 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    30.52 %
Bob Rae and Liberal Party of Canada    23.02 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    6.76 %
Daniel Paille and Bloc Quebecois    5.21 %
Undecided    12 %
Question #2
Do you “Support” or “Oppose” same sex marriage in Canada?
Support    61 %
Oppose    31.5 %
Question #3
Is it your “Impression” – “Perception” that the Harper Government is treating Canadian War Veterans well?
Yes    31 %
No    52.5 %
Question #4
Do you support Alberta’s proposal to construct pipeline across eastern and western Canada to transport its Tar Sands crude oil to countries abroad including China and the United States?
Yes    27 %
No    62 %
Question #5
(Additional) Do you shop for goods or pay for other services or entertainment in the United States at least once per year?
Yes    51 %
No    44 %
Commentary
Thomas Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada: (2011 results in brackets)
British Columbia – 38.4% (32.5%); Alberta- 23.5% (16.8%); Saskatchewan-36.5% (32.3); Manitoba-33% (25.8%); Ontario-30% (25.6%); Quebec-42.5% (42.9%); Atlantic Provinces-New Brunswick 33% (29.8%); Nova Scotia 34% (30.3%); PEI-18.5% (15.4%); Newfoundland and Labrador 32% (32.6%).
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada:
British Columbia-32% (45.5%); Alberta-51% (66.8%); Saskatchewan-43% (56.3%); Manitoba-40% (53.5%); Ontario-33% (44.4%); Quebec-13% (13.5%); New Brunswick-34% (43.9%); Nova Scotia-30% (36.7%); PEI-32% (41.2%); Newfoundland and Labrador-26.5% (28.4%).
Bob Rae and Liberal Party of Canada:
British Columbia-18% (13.4%); Alberta-17% (9.3%); Saskatchewan-17% (8.6%); Manitoba-19.5% (16.6%); Ontario-29% (25.3%); Quebec-17% (14.2%); New Brunswick-24% (22.6%); Nova Scotia-30.5% (28.9%); PEI-44% (41%); Newfoundland and Labrador-39.5% (37.9%).
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada:
British Columbia-11% (7.7%); Alberta-8% (5.3%); Saskatchewan-3% (2.7%); Manitoba-7% (3.6%); Ontario-7.5% (3.8%); Quebec-6.5% (2.1%); New Brunswick-7.5% (3.2%); Nova Scotia-4.5% (4%); PEI-5% (2.4%); Newfoundland and Labrador-4.5% (1.5%).
Thomas Mulcair and New Democratic Part of Canada is “up” in public opinion support (18%) in BC; up (40%) in Alberta; up (13%) in Saskatchewan; up (12.5%) in Manitoba; up (17%) in Ontario; even in Quebec; up (11%) in New Brunswick; up (12%) in Nova Scotia; up (23.5%) in PEI; and down (2%) in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada is down (29.5%) in British Columbia; down (24%) in Alberta; down (23.5%) in Saskatchewan; down (25.5%) in Manitoba; down (25.5%) in Ontario; even in Quebec; down (22.5%) in New Brunswick; down (18.5%) in Nova Scotia; down (22.5%) in PEI; down (6.5%) in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Bob Rae and Liberal Party of Canada are up (34.5%) in British Columbia; up (82.5%) in Alberta; up (97.5%) in Saskatchewan; up (17.5%) in Manitoba; up (14.5%) in Ontario; up (19.5%) in Quebec, up (6%) in New Brunswick; up (5.5%) in Nova Scotia; up (7.5%) in PEI; up (4%) in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada are up (43%) in British Columbia; up (51%) in Alberta; up (11%) in Saskatchewan; up (94.5%) in Manitoba; up (97.3%) in Ontario; up (309.5%) in Quebec; up (234.5%) in New Brunswick; up (12.5%) in Nova Scotia; up (208.5%) in PEI; up (300%) in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Leader Thomas Mulcair and his New Democratic Party lead Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada in this large sample ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) poll – in the second year of a new – four year Parliament. The federal New Democratic Party is growing in popularity in virtually every province of the country. The New Democrats have seriously increased support in Alberta – as have the federal Liberal and Green Party.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper may have 3 years to go before the next federal election but the numbers in this poll, evidence of decline in public support across the board, and an expanding ledger of issues which have and may continue to cause damage to the reputation of his Government, are sufficiently troubling -and deep- to make this poll and others which have preceded it – possible foreshadowing of future outcomes in federal politics in Canada including the next federal general election.
Bob Rae and the Liberal Party of Canada are some distance behind the first place New Democratic Party and second place Conservative government – but they are moving up from the disappointing totals from the 2011 federal general election and this support is holding well. Canada’s most prolific party – still has a new leader to elect.
Support/Opposition for same sex marriage in Canada has gone from 50/50 in 2003 to nearly double the number of Canadians now supporting same sex marriage. This is one progressive Government policy pushed upon Canadians during the Chretien government which time has proved to be enlightened.
Support for same marriage as follows (based on decided): British Columbia (72%); Alberta (52%); Saskatchewan (48%); Manitoba (62%); Ontario (64%); Quebec (79%); New Brunswick (53%); Nova Scotia (58%); PEI (60%); Newfoundland and Labrador (57%).
One in two Canadians have the impression – perception that the Government of Canada is not treating its War Veterans well, while one in three does have the impression - perception that the War Veterans are being treated well. “Not treating Veterans well” (raw numbers) British Columbia (56%); Alberta (45%); Saskatchewan (41); Manitoba (50%); Ontario (53%); Quebec (58%); New Brunswick (55%); Nova Scotia (49%); PEI (44%); Newfoundland and Labrador (55%).
Canadian War Veterans concerned over changes to pensions are mobilizing against the Conservative government. Their plight is reasonably well known however there is still a significant minority of Canadians who do not have information or have not heard of the controversy.
Only one in four Canadians support ‘east west pipelines from Alberta transporting Tar Sands crude oil to countries abroad including China and the United States’. Support for east west Alberta Tar Sands pipeline as follows: British Columbia (28%), Alberta (53%); Saskatchewan (48%); Manitoba (30%); Ontario (27%); Quebec (11%); New Brunswick (38%); Nova Scotia (26%); PEI (12%); Newfoundland and Labrador (21%).
Commentary by Peter Kelly
Every single poll nationally is not registering the trend started upon the selection of Thomas Mulcair as Leader of federal New Democratic Party and Official Opposition. The Harper Conservatives won a majority government with less than 40% of the popular vote, 31% going to the federal New Democrats. The math proves that an absolute majority of Canadians vote progressive - even if that vote was split.
Now the trends reveals a coalescing of that vote under the New Democrat banner as the Liberal Party of Canada is seen more as a spent force who traditionally will do and say anything to get elected - using the same divide and conquer techniques as the Harper Conservatives are using now.
The Tories (Conservatives) are doing well in Alberta as they should. But there is a problem. They could win 70% of the vote in that province and it would gain them but one more seat. The extreme overkill in landslide support they they get from their key areas of Alberta, rural Prairies and Ontario is insufficient to deal with the battles they are losing badly to the more progressive side of the voting spectrum, particularly in the urban areas of British Columbia, Quebec, Atlantic Canada and urban Ontario. This is where the majority of the seats are and currently the Conservatives are being trounced.
In the recent past there has been a discussion in the public eye regarding the comments that New Democratic Leader Thomas Mulcair made regarding "Dutch Disease" and how Alberta's tar-sands affects the entire Canadian economy. The argument is that the tar sands economic development has been a major contributing factor in the increasing trade value of the Canadian dollar to par or above. Thomas Mulcair takes the position that this has adversely impacted on Canadian manufacturing. This economic sector thrives on a low Canadian dollar - making Canadian products from manufacturing less expensive to purchase on the World market.
Mulcair took his cue from a panel which studied the issue AT THE DIRECTION OF THE CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT. By raising the issue of "Dutch Disease" the Conservative government and Western provincial Premiers have taken the opportunity to slam the New Democratic Opposition and Mr. Mulcair as anti-west. Mr. Mulcair is accused of being hostile to the oil and gas sector, when he is only articulating the facts.
The federal Conservative Harper government and Western provincial Premiers have now placed themselves on one side of this issue, but evidently public opinion is on the other. No one is happy when the price of crude oil drops and Big Oil decides to increase the price at the pump. Even fewer people are happy when their government refuse to take a stand against apparently deceptive tactics to justify this exorbitant price regime. While some stand with Big Oil, the Canadian public is seeking a Champion to stand with them against this legalized extortion. This is why you see the federal New Democrats popular support on the rise in the West.
Methodology - Lists of Voters from the Canadian federal election of May 2011 were used to conduct research of 2,658 respondents. The Margin of Error of this poll is 1.9%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. Province by province as follows (M.O.E.) British Columbia - 921 (3.23%); Alberta -321 (5.47%); Saskatchewan -121 (8.91%); Manitoba - 86 (10.57%); Ontario -742 (3.6%); Quebec - 142 (8.22%); New Brunswick - 62 (10.89%); Nova Scotia - 114 (9.18%); Prince Edward Island - 24 (19.99%); Newfoundland and Labrador - 114 (9.18%). Not all research conducted within Canada - special thanks to Jim Van Rassel for Research. Poll conducted from May 15 -24, 2012.

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