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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics August 1, 2012
  Aug 01, 2012

Question #1
From the following list of response choices, which federal leader and party do you currently support? (Adjusted for gender from raw data)
Thomas Mulcair and the New Democratic Party of Canada    31.28 %
Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada    29.52 %
Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada    27.71 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    6.51 %
Daniel Paille and Bloc Quebecois Party    5.22 %
Undecided    15.23 %
Question #2
On a scale of 1-10, with 10 the highest assessment, and 1 the lowest assessment, how would you in your capacity as a voter personally rate the’ leaders’ and potential ‘leaders’ of each of the following Canadian political parties provided? (Response number in brackets – rounded to nearest half – depicted as a percentage –).
Thomas Mulcair (New Democrat)    45.4 %
Stephen Harper (Conservative)    36.3 %
Justin Trudeau (Liberal)    48.4 %
Elizabeth May(Green)    49 %
Question #3
Professor Stephen Hawking’s Grand Design of physics and the universe strongly suggests that human beings may actually be part of a much larger Universal ‘Grand’ plan. Do you accept this as possible to likely?
Yes    48.5 %
No    32.5 %
Undecided    18.5 %
Question #4
Would you classify yourself as a “religious” person?
Yes    28.5 %
No    60 %
Undecided    11 %
Question #5
In your opinion is the Conservative Government of Canada ‘a friend’ to the environment?
Yes    23.5 %
No    70 %
Undecided    6.5 %
Question #6
In your opinion are women a ‘disadvantaged class of person’ in Canadian society?
Yes    20.5 %
No    73 %
Undecided    6 %
Commentary
Election results by major political party in CANADA after the May 2011 Federal General Election as follows:
Conservative Party of Canada (39.6%); New Democratic Party of Canada (30.6%), Liberal Party of Canada (18.9%), Green Party of Canada (3.9%), Bloc Quebecois Party of Quebec (6.0%), Other (.9%).
Results of this major ROBBINS Sce Research as July 2012:
Thomas Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada (31.28% up 2.2%); Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada (29.52% down 25.45%); Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada (27.71% up 46.6%); Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada (6.51% up 66.9%), Daniel Paille and Bloc Quebec Party of Quebec (5.22% down 13%).
Thomas Mulcair’s New Democratic Party of Canada holds top spot across the nation in this ROBBINS Sce Research “Canada Day” poll. His party numbers are up only slightly from those attained in the 2011 general federal election, but have increased conspicuously in the vote rich Province of Ontario since then. Overall, Mr. Mulcair holds voter support that the late former leader of the NDP party Jack Layton achieved in 2011 (all while stricken with cancer. Mr. Mulcair is seen as “very intelligent” and “highly competent” (even among those who don’t like him or his party).
Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party of Canada is just past the first quarter in their first majority government (2011) since first taking office in early 2006 - but they are in early and serious trouble with Canadian voters at Canada Day in 2012. It may be the first time in Canadian history that a majority government has damaged itself so badly so early in their mandate, that they may not recover even though the next federal general election is in 2014. Canadians have simply become exhausted with the Harper Government and this fatigue is reflected in every province of the country. One respondent says “It seems like they have in government forever”.
Potential contender to the Federal Liberal leadership - Justin Trudeau- the son of Canada’s most noteworthy Prime Minister- Pierre Trudeau – and whose name is currently spoken on everyone’s lips in Canada’s capital city –Ottawa, Ontario – may soon let us all draw an –even- breath and finalize the decision whether or not he intends to seek the leadership of The Liberal Party of Canada – formerly Canada’s Party--. Justin Trudeau has realized some ‘big, bold and beautiful’ numbers in speculative support including the First to dare to say ‘way it is’ – ROBBINS Sce Research – (see John Ivison – {The Scotsman- Edinburgh}, {National Post- Canada}) – but these ‘today’ numbers in the wake of further and more intense leadership speculation appears from anecdote at least to be an outcome of more universal and contemplative attention by Canadians taking a good hard Second Look at Justin Trudeau. Trudeau is no longer just a pretty face with a name – he is smart, thoughtful, sensitive, and features potential power in both hands – left and right.
Elizabeth May, Leader of the Green Party of Canada – is taking full advantage of finally achieving a seat in Canada’s Parliament. While many MP’s may take their position for granted and go along for the limo ride. Ms. May in sharp contrast to the behavior of many MP’s on Parliament Hill, epitomizes good value for money for Canadian tax payers—riding her electric scooter to Parliament Hill whenever and wherever possible—and squeezing her own breakfast natural fruit and vegetable drinks—purchased from BC Growers.
Leader and Party by Province (2011 totals in {--}’s:
Thomas Mulcair and the New Democratic Party of Canada:
British Columbia (32%) {32.5}, Alberta (22.5%) {16.8%}, Saskatchewan (32%) {32.3}, Manitoba (26.5%) {25.8%}, Ontario (29%) {25.6%}, Quebec (41%) {42.9%}, New Brunswick (28.5%) {29.8%}, Nova Scotia (33%) {30.3%}, Prince Edward Island (18%) {15.4%}, Newfoundland and Labrador (30.5%) {32.6%}.
Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada:
British Columbia (29.5%) {45.6%}, Alberta (48.5%) {66.8%}, Saskatchewan (51%) {56.3%}, Manitoba (36%) {53.5%}, Ontario (30.5%) {44.4%}, Quebec (9%) {16.5%}, New Brunswick (31%) {41.2%}, Nova Scotia (28%) {36.7%}, Prince Edward Island (27%) {41.2%}, Newfoundland and Labrador (27.5%) {28.3%}.
Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada:
British Columbia (26.5%) {13.4%}, Alberta (22%) {9.3%}, Saskatchewan (20%) {8.5%}, Manitoba (26.5%) {16.6%} Ontario (32.5%) {25.6%}, Quebec (20%) {14.2%}, New Brunswick (31%) {22.6%}, Nova Scotia (34%) {28.9%}, Prince Edward Island (47%) {41%}, Newfoundland and Labrador (35%) {37.9%}.
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada:
British Columbia (10.5%) {7.7%}, Alberta (6.5%) {5.2%}, Saskatchewan (6%) {2.6%}, Manitoba (9.5%) {2.6%}, Ontario (7%) {3.8%}, Quebec (5%) (2.1%}, New Brunswick (5.5%) {3.2%}, Nova Scotia (4.5%) {3.2%}, Prince Edward Island (4%) 2.4%}, Newfoundland and Labrador (2%) {.9%}
In question 2, our current party leader Thomas Mulcair, scores ‘6’ or higher in one third of responses and scores ‘3’ or lower one quarter of the time. Prime Minister Stephen Harper currently in second place in popular support scores ‘6’ or higher just less than one quarter of the time and scores ‘3’ or lower one quarter of the time. Justin Trudeau scores ‘6’ or better nearly (41.5%) of the time, and ‘3’ or less (11.5%) of the time. Elizabeth May scores ‘6’ or better (28.5%) of time and ‘3’ or less (13.5%) of time.
Thomas Mulcair scores ‘8’ or better (17.5%) of the time, while Stephen Harper scores ‘8’ or better (5%) of the time. Justin Trudeau scores ‘8’ or better (9%) of the time, while Elizabeth May scores ‘8’ or better (11.5%) of time.
Thomas Mulcair is very well liked by those who like him, and not very well liked by those who do not like him with (16%) of respondents scoring him at ‘2’ or less. Stephen Harper is only moderately well liked by those who like him and not very well liked by those who do not like him. Nearly (18%) of respondents scored Stephen Harper at ‘2’ or less.
Justin Trudeau is moderately well liked by many with (65%) scoring approval at ‘5’ or better and only (6%) at ‘2’ or less. Elizabeth May is also moderately well liked by many with (62.5%) scoring her at ‘5’ or better and only (3%) at ‘2’ or less. Justin Trudeau and Elizabeth also have the highest no response (21%) and (24%).
Thomas Mulcair scores highest in Quebec with average ‘6’ and lowest in Alberta with ‘3.5’. Stephen Harper scores highest in Alberta with ‘6’ and lowest in Quebec with ‘2.5’. Justin Trudeau scores highest in Atlantic Provinces with ‘6.5’ and lowest in Saskatchewan with ‘3.5’. Elizabeth May scores highest in British Columbia with ‘6’ and lowest in Saskatchewan with ‘3’.
Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party is experiencing some very serious problems with popular support among Canadian voters. The fact that the next Canadian federal election is 3 years away should not be of any solace to the Conservative Party of Canada. They are down (25.5%) in popular support from the 2011 federal general election majority win. They are down in public support in the three largest Canadian provinces: Ontario (23%), Quebec (44%) and British Columbia (31%). The explanation for this dramatic fall could likely fill pages (possibly journals), but basically the reasons are simple. The Harper government no longer resonates with The People of Canada, by significant majority - they don’t like the Conservative Government and they are no longer enamored with Stephen Harper. This poll represents the countries fastest ‘buyers remorse’ following an election of any majority government in our history.
In minority government Prime Minister Harper appeared like a ‘Godsend’ from the end of the Chretien Martin era and all of the corruption and arrogance which was brought to bear on a then sickened and tired electorate – and Stephen Harper bided his time/a good and humble servant – navigated Government very capably and ultimately earned the people’s trust and a majority followed. Now Canadians feel they have erred and are aware that Mr. Harper has no association with ‘God’ and is more likely directed by Corporation agenda(s)—and he and his party are now seen through the same Canadian perspective that became fed up with the Liberal Party of Canada. In contrast – through -faith or ideology- or a combination of these -The late Jack Layton realized the future dimension of Canadian politics and further--- realized the opportunity presently on display through the realistic image of Thomas Mulcair.
In conjunction with the Harper Conservative’s fall in public support, Thomas Mulcair and his federal NDP party are resonating with Canadian voters as possible contenders to win minority government. Stephen Harper’s past success can be attributed to the fact that previously there was no suitable leader and party to replace him. Former federal leader Stephane Dion was intelligent and interesting but failed because he could barely be understood in English – muttering something about ‘The Green Shift’ –his successor- Michael Ignatieff was gang raped by the Canadian establishment situated in Toronto –{the centre of itself and little else} –with anticipated poor results announced on Election Day (whether fully counted or not). Former federal NDP leader Jack Layton was not taken seriously as a contender for Prime Minister– even for Leader of the Opposition until the most recent general election in May 2011.
With Thomas Mulcair—the federal NDP have arrived- the manifestation of Jack Layton’s energy and efforts, and are NOW currently a contender to take Parliament in 2014. The NDP party’s numbers remain high in Quebec, have increased over (10%) in Ontario and remain solid in BC. Mr. Mulcair’s NDP party is progressing well in virtually all other provinces. Thomas Mulcair is supported in near equal numbers by both genders, while women are abandoning Stephen Harper in droves with (96%) of the ‘minority’ of female respondents in this ROBBINS poll -- of the opinion that ‘women are a disadvantaged class of person in Canadian society’ -- not selecting Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada in question 1.
The Liberal Party is looking for a new leader. In this poll we have elected to insert THE political brand name in Canadian politics – Justin Trudeau. Though Mr. Trudeau received a very positive (30%) in our ROBBINS January 2012 poll – Thomas Mulcair had yet to arrive on the scene as NDP leader. Mr. Trudeau’s numbers are certainly worth considering nonetheless. The increased speculation in the months following the forward looking ROBBINS 2012 poll that Mr. Trudeau would seek the Liberal Party leadership – has produced more sober reflection among Canadian voters who are very interested in the son of arguably Canada’s most charismatic Prime Minister of all time – Pierre Trudeau- but in Justin Trudeau ‘they just want to see his face’. Over this period of time – the centre left New Democrats have increased in popular support hitting heights of 35-36%. As a consequence of the infusion of Mr. Trudeau’s name into the Canadian political picture the NDP remain on top while the Conservatives continue to slide. If there is a vote split here – it hasn’t benefitted Stephen Harper – instead it has created a three way race between the leading federal New Democrats, second place Conservative government and close behind the third place Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada.
Justin Trudeau breathes tremendous optimism in Canada’s Atlantic provinces – brings the Liberals the highest scores of all parties in a slugfest for support in Ontario – by far the most populous of Canada’s provinces, and jolts British Columbia to attention from dismal teen vote outcomes for Liberals (2011) to numbers the party has attained in better days – with a view to the federal 40% support achieved under Jean Chretien, former Prime Minister of Canada through the 1990’s and early turn of the 21st century—as a very young Canada heads to 145 birthday next year.
The environment went from near top of mind (ever challenged by the economy) for many Canadians in 2006-2008 –and then the recession hit. Green Party leader Elizabeth May has contributed well to the resurgence of Green (and many other progressive) issues being brought to the forefront of debate. In the preceding years Canada’s economic condition was all that mattered. Canadians were told that Canada’s banking system was the best in the world – when in fact this was a total lie. Canadian banks were provided with billions of dollars in bail outs – yet were held up as a contrast to the myriad bail outs and other ‘financial chicanery’ taking place in the United States. Canadians have not been told the truth by it’s government working in conjunction with mainstream media with an apparent commensurate disdain for full, honest and most importantly – consistent truthful information being provided to Canadians – a consequence of owners and publishers being easily ‘bought off’ by truly despicable national advertising and public relations campaigns, or held in check by cuts to public radio and television (CBC). The truth is that every western nation is experiencing the backlash from Canadians of a dishonest market system – ‘corporatism’ where governments and big corporations collude with one another—which benefit the average Canadian ‘little’—and a few Canadians ‘big’. (See Dennis Kelleher’s Lie-More on the Libor scandal).
Although the economic condition in Canada may not be significantly better now, Canadians are swinging back toward concern for the global environment – and the state of their own countries environment. Anecdote suggests that they are weary of hearing about troubles abroad in Greece – Europe and the Middle East and are more mindful of what can be done in their communities and for their own families. As former Progressive Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney declared on Don Martin’s political show – ‘The Canadian middle class wants to leave a legacy for its children and grand children and a pristine environment is that legacy.’ (See – Foreshadowing).
Canadians either through related responses to questions or through indirect anecdote tell us repeatedly that they don’t want to pay any more further taxes – and don’t trust governments – don’t trust or don’t care about free trade agreements – and believe that “If the Conservatives can’t solve the problem get someone in there who can”. The future of the country may hold for social democratic governments to be placed in power with a short leash on taxation – or a short time in office. The future of government will be to remove corporate friendly unethical and unfair governments/what the Harper government has become to many disappointed Canadians/ – to be replaced with more democratic government who will be tasked with the redeployment of existing tax revenues in a more meaningful way for the majority of the country –and certainly not for special interests.
The Harper government’s most recent omnibus bill -according to Canadians (anecdotally in this poll) -- reflects a total lack of concern of the duty of care citizens expect of its government. Stephen Harper’s government’s denials are not acceptable to the average Canadian – who are now beginning to realize that former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin – may have been correct –telling Canadians 7 years ago to ‘be aware’ of Stephen Harper – the real Stephen Harper. These fears are real and are being reflected in the massive slide in support for the Conservative government.
The main ‘pure’ spokesperson for the environment in Canadian Parliament is Elizabeth May – who finally won The Green Party of Canada’s one and only seat in Saanich BC – a province where serious battle lines are being drawn uniting aboriginal groups and a huge majority of mainstream British Columbians against an aggressive and undemocratic push to move Alberta Tar Sands oil through that provinces’ mainland and down its coast to sell to China and the United States. Ms. May has already proven herself to be in the top half dozen MP’s on Parliament Hill – she is extremely bright and ever committed – and this is reflected in the increase for Green party support – at this time –not a vote split – to progressive votes – but a place for an increasing number of Canadians who do not like Harper’s environment policies and are not enamored with the other two choices – New Democrats, and Liberals. Good timing, Canadians by a clear and unequivocal majority do not see women as ‘disadvantaged class of person in Canadian society’. Over (84.5%) of ‘Decided’ male respondents are of the opinion that women are NOT disadvantaged persons in Canada.
A real stunning outcome for Stephen Hawkings “Grand Design” in this ROBBINS poll. A clear majority of Canadians believe there is something greater --- ‘out there’ in Cosmos Factory. Mr. Hawkings is acknowledged worldwide for his intelligence – and his Grand Design concept is accepted by far more Canadians than ‘religion’ is. “The new vision for the universe” brought about by the discovery of the “Higgs Boson” after our consideration of Stephen Hawkings “Meaning of Life” certainly brought us to Second Attention – as it did-by induction or other methodology -- many other Canadians. A Grand Design is accepted by more than double the number of Canadians who classify themselves as ‘religious’, yet only 52% of ‘religious’ Canadians accept the Grand Design concept. (“Yes”) to “Grand Design”: New Democrats (55%), Liberals (53%), Greens (73%) and Bloc Quebecois (49%) --- Conservative (33%) supporters are (unadjusted).
Whatever- governments everywhere around the world – including here in Canada under Stephen Harper’s Conservatives – are losing control of the people’s trust – and faith in politics – is but a dream.
Maybe this is a Good thing.
Methodology- Telephone conducted interviews with 1,400 Canadians from June 27 to July 5, 2012. Interviews were conducted based on ROBBINS lists of voters from the 2011 Canadian general election. Best efforts were made to draw representative samples according to population of each province, but where this wasn’t the case adjustments were made to overall outcomes to reflect a fair representation of provincial population. Poll outcomes for each question were adjusted to more accurately reflect gender participation in the 2011 Canadian general election from each province. Only Canadian provinces were included and only respondents from ‘larger cities’ indicated in some cases as ‘Greater’ area of that city - were included. From British Columbia: ‘Greater’ Victoria, ‘Greater’ Vancouver, ‘Greater’ Kelowna (404 respondents, Margin of Error 4.6%); From Alberta: Greater Edmonton and Greater Calgary (203 respondents, Margin of Error 6.56%); From Saskatchewan: Greater Regina and Greater Saskatoon (55 respondents, Margin of Error 8.83%); From Manitoba: Greater Winnipeg and Greater Brandon (70 respondents, Margin of Error 11.71%); From Ontario: Greater Toronto and Peterborough (375 respondents, Margin of Error 5.2%); From Quebec: Greater Montreal and Greater Quebec City (127 respondents, Margin of Error 9.34%); From New Brunswick: Fredericton (40 respondents, NO Margin of Error provided), Nova Scotia: Greater Halifax and Greater Dartmouth (84 respondents, Margin of Error 10.69%); PEI: Charlottetown (24 respondents, NO Margin of Error provided), Newfoundland and Labrador: Saint John’s Newfoundland (30 respondents, Nor Margin of Error provided). Some respondents – equal to approximately 1% of the total Undecided were removed from total number for presentation of rounded amount of total poll respondents. Many respondents were gathered on a cellular telephone as opposed to a land line.
Special thanks to Peter Kelly for the terrific graphs.

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