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ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) Magnificent United States Presidential Poll 2012
Sky Pilot - Eric Burdon and The Animals  Oct 17, 2012

By Peter Kelly of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada
America the battleground!
As our numbers suggest, its a close race. The devil is in the details as few states are genuinely close - those that are, such as Ohio, are the swing states. If the final ballot looks like the polling numbers suggest, Barack Obama is looking at a comfortable re-election in November.
What is stunning however is the shift in social attitudes. In 2000,02, 04, right wing social activists were largely successful in getting state-level constitutional bans on same sex marriage, restrictions on abortions, and other socially divisive matters passed in referendums. The appetite was there to clamp down on liberal social values,it was a vote-winner for the GOP. It galvanized their supporters and brought them out in droves to vote to ban gay and lesbian weddings...and while they were at it, they may as well vote Republican too.
What a difference a few years makes. The incumbent, a liberal Democrat, came out in support of same sex marriage. Barack Obama did this despite many political speed bumps in the way to his re-election. The USA economy is still sluggish, there is still a massive deficit,the debt is outrageous, and congress is dysfunctional. That should have sunk his campaign before it began. It didn't. Furthermore, it boosted his standing in the general sense of things. Obama clearly measured his policy based on the trend towards legal recognition. Even the FOX network remarked that the GOP was on the wrong side of history on this one.
This doesn't suggest that same sex marriage is wildly supported by all. Not at all. The risk for Obama is that his policy is opposed by more African Americans than support it - white America is more supportive. But the fact that a majority of Americans are supportive of same sex marriage is breathtaking to say the least.
What the numbers are also saying is that something is terribly wrong with Mitt Romney. This economic recovery is probably the most drawn out affair ever. The likable, well spoken Romney should be able to run circles around Obama as far as the economy goes. But Obama has been entirely successful in defining Romney as unfit to run a country.
It remains to be seen how the appointment of Paul Ryan will play out in the next little while. Certainly there will be a bounce for the new Romney/Ryan ticket, but it may also galvanize liberals and disgruntled democrats who see Paul Ryan as the centre of the far right tea party that has been largely to blame for the gridlock in congress.
We are less than three months out from the election and there will likely be more dramatic events to 'define' either side, but Barack Obama is well positioned to win another term. Unless something stupid happens.

Question #1
If the election for President of the United States was held tomorrow which candidate would you vote for? (National Totals includes adjustments for gender and is depicted to 100%)
Barack Obama    52.85 %
Mitt Romney    47.12 %
Undecided    8.5 %
Question #2
If an election for President of the United States was held tomorrow for which candidate would you vote? (California, Texas, New York, Florida, Ohio)
Barack Obama    54.14 %
Mitt Romney    45.93 %
Undecided    10.5 %
Question #3
Do you support same sex marriage? (National Totals) (Depicted to 100%)
Yes    51 %
No    49 %
Question #4
If an election for President of the United States was held tomorrow for which candidate would you vote? (New York State)
Barack Obama (Democrat)    61.5 %
Mitt Romney (Republican)    38.5 %
Undecided    7 %
Question #5
If an election for President of the United States was held tomorrow for which candidate would you vote? (Florida State)
Mitt Romney (Republican)    47 %
Barack Obama (Democrat)    53 %
Undecided    11 %
Question #6
If an election for President of the United States was held tomorrow for which candidate would you vote? (State of Texas)
Barack Obama (Democrat)    43.5 %
Mitt Romney (Republican)    56 %
Undecided    13 %
Question #7
If an election for President of the United States was held tomorrow for which candidate would you vote? (California State)
Mitt Romney (Republican)    42.5 %
Barack Obama (Democrat)    57.5 %
Undecided    10 %
Question #8
If an election for President of the United States was held tomorrow for which candidate would you vote? (Ohio State - Bellwether).
Barack Obama (Democrat)    50.5 %
Mitt Romney (Republican)    49.5 %
Undecided    16 %
Question #9
Do you support same sex marriage? (Caucasian (U.S.))
Yes    46 %
No    43 %
Question #10
Do you support same sex marriage? (African American (U.S.))
Yes    32 %
No    41 %
Question #11
Do you support same sex marriage? (Latino (U.S.))
Yes    41 %
No    35 %
Commentary
The five major participating States in this ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) ‘Magnificent U.S. Presidential Poll’ include: New York, Florida, Texas, California and Ohio. 2011 populations of each State (rounded): California (37,500,000), Texas (25,500,000), New York (19,000,000), Florida (19,000,000); and Ohio (11,500,000). These states represent over one third of the population of the United States and feature a respondent factor in this ROBBINS Sce Research poll of nearly double that.
Electoral College votes for each State California (55 – unchanged), Texas (38 – increase of 4 electoral seats), New York (29 – decrease of 2 electoral seats), Florida (29 – increase of 2 electoral seats), Ohio (Bellwether State) (18 seats – decrease of 2 seats).
Based on these numbers, U.S. President Barack Obama has a (8%) lead over Mitt Romney in 5 major U.S. States and a (6%) lead nationally based on decided Voter totals. Based on raw data this lead is (5.25%) nationally and (7.5%) based on the major states from question 2. President Obama and Governor Romney are in a virtual dead head in historical bellwether Ohio.
Within the context of this run for a second term as President of the United States there is no doubt that at this point in time, Barack Obama has a clear lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. In the four most populous (and valuable College vote) states – Barack Obama is also winning, including Florida, a State where many polls have declared the race a toss up. In the Bellwether state of Ohio – it is thus, setting the stage for an interesting few months ahead to election date.
Credible estimates suggest that the gay population in the United States may be as high as 2 per cent of the total population of the country. Barack Obama took the bold political step to support gay marriage despite the fact that many Democratic leaning States have held votes have rejected these marriages. Our same sex marriage question reveals a number of interesting insights. First Caucasian and Latino women support same sex marriage in raw numbers over 50% as Latino. Clearly African American men and women go against same sex marriage in higher numbers but this fact is ameliorated somewhat by a high Undecided number and by the additional fact that despite this African Americans support Barack Obama in staggering record numbers.
As was the case in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, Caucasians support the Republican candidate over Barack Obama – but we believe the incumbent may have raised his Caucasian support by as much as (5%) over his 2008 totals against Senator John McCain. Somewhat ironically, this increase in President Obama’s support among Caucasians is nearly equal to the gay and lesbian population in the country.
Barack Obama remains more attractive to Latino voters than Mitt Romney is. This poll does not canvass ‘Other’ ethnicities (2008 voters) – a significant deficiency of the overall poll.
It probably goes without saying that it is unlikely that any efforts to win African American voters – will bear any fruit for Mitt Romney but this is politics – am accumulation of odd and almost unnatural state of occurrences, which is why this power sport it is so exciting. The difference in support in this ethnic category basically accounts for Barack Obama’s overall lead over Mitt Romney. Candidate Romney will need to side step Barack Obama’s same sex firewall with Caucasian voters and find other nooks and crannies to increase his Caucasian totals by overall 2 per cent and decrease the President’s total by a similar amount, to compete in November 2012. He will also need to increase his own column of support with Latino voters by about (22%) and split among “Other” ethnic groups to win the Presidency.
“Other” voters are well represented in the United States with 2010 Census revealing that approximately 5.5% of this population constituted of Asian or part Asian voters including Chinese, Filipino, Indian, Vietnamese, Korean and Japanese Americans. A large portion of these American reside in California where Obama is almost sure to win, however there is a significant Asian population in Pennsylvania which prove a strategic voter group in the drive for College totals.
U.S incumbent President Barack Obama must ensure that African Americans vote in similar numbers as they did in 2008, hold the support he currently possesses with Latino voters and make further inroads with Caucasians – and if does so he will handily defeat Mitt Romney.
Methodology: Respondents were gathered predominantly from five of the U.S. States with the largest population bases and number of electoral seats in the United States of America including: California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Ohio (6th). Ohio is also considered a historical Bellwether State. Respondents were gathered by way of ethnicity including Caucasian, African American, and Latino and adjusted for each of these ethnic groups population in each State. California, Texas, New York and Florida all have Latino populations that are much higher than the average for the entire country. The Latino population nationwide is growing in a manner consistent with the population growth for the Latino population in the participating states of California, Texas, and Florida. The balance of respondents from other United States were taken into consideration and factored relative to these outcomes – the influence of their population and considered against the outcomes from the major population States referenced herein.
As indicated, the total support for each candidate for U.S. President in question 1 is based on an adjustment to the allocation of support from the Latino population more equal to the national average. Populations for the Latino population required the most adjustment from raw numbers.
National totals for Caucasian were therefore adjusted by a more significant decrease in the numbers allocated for Latino voter participation, a nominal decrease in African American numbers and an algorithm based factor of increase to Caucasian voter participation which ultimately Mitt Romney’s total percentage as can be seen in question 1 which factored outcomes from other smaller States many of these featuring higher concentrations of Caucasian voters.
A total number of 5,217 respondents who voted in the 2008 U.S. Election for President of the United States of America. This ROBBINS Sce Research poll was conducted between July 23rd and August 8th, 2012. The Margin of Error (MOE) base on the national numbers for question 1 is 1.35% meaning that Barack Obama has a 3.5 to 8.5% lead over Mitt Romney in popular vote with this prediction of 100 per cent probability. The method of sampling in the 4 major states of New York, Florida, California and Texas took place in ‘two sweeps’ with Ohio’s numbers being gathered in the mid point of the polling period and the balance of other States in the final days of the polling period.
Same Sex question 3 – National Totals based on a similar extrapolation as used in question 1 for U.S. President Totals. The major deficiency in this ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) poll is that voters other than Caucasian, African American and Latino ethnic groups were not properly identified.

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