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BC 2013 Provincial Election Poll - BC Greens overtake BC Liberals -(re)introducing Gordon Wilson
Itchycoo Park - Small Faces  Sep 03, 2012

Question #1
From the following which leader and party would you support if a provincial election were held in British Columbia today?
Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats    26 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives    16 %
Jane Sterk and BC Greens    12.5 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    11 %
Other leader and party    1 %
I probably would spoil my ballot    8.5 %
I probably would not vote    15 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer    11.5 %
Question #2
According to Wikipedia Gordon Wilson is the original BC Liberal of the last twenty years taking the party from obscurity to 17 seats in 1991. In 1993 Wilson lost his leadership to Gordon Campbell. In 1997 Gordon Wilson joined the BC NDP sitting as a cabinet minister in a number of portfolios including finance. At this time would you support a return to politics by Gordon Wilson
Yes    14 %
No    38 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer    48 %
Question #3
Do you believe Christy Clark and the BC Liberals can win a 4th term as government?
Yes    3.5 %
No    86.5 %
Undecided/Don’t Know/Don’t Care    10 %
Commentary
From ROBBINS 2009 voters lists approximately (67%) of voters have currently picked a leader and party from a list of four mainstream parties and other. Of the remaining respondents (67%) suggest they would either spoil their ballot or would not vote. At this moment in time in British Columbia we can expect a (38%) voter turnout if an election were called ‘today’.
This poll was conducted during a period of time where many more serious BC Liberal ministers decided not to run for the BC Liberals in the May 2013 provincial general election. These main ministers included Kevin Falcon (finance) and George Abbott (Education). These announcements have likely brought the BC Liberals to fourth place and created the significant rise of the BC Green Party. Based on decided votes current leader and party standings are: BC New Democrats (39%), BC Conservatives (24%), BC Greens (19%) and BC Liberals (16.5%).
Gordon Campbell achieved (23%) of voter support in the 2009 BC provincial election from all eligible voters. The BC NDP currently has (20%) based on the anticipated percentage of vote if the election were held today. Given that a clear majority of respondents who do not pick a leader and party response are not happy with the nature of BC politics today it is safe to hypothesize the following: 1. The BC Liberals are finished today under Christy Clark and chances of improving are slim; 2. The complete dissatisfaction with the BC Liberals is beginning to take its toll on the BC New Democrats who some respondents see as simply “ragging the puck” until the next election, content to hang onto Christy’s dead political weight as their opposition – until the upcoming election for their own political benefit.
If voters are completely done with the BC Liberals under Christy Clark – and are becoming less enamored with BC New Democrats, their apparent default positions are either BC Conservatives who have one seat in the BC Legislature, or BC Greens who have no seats – or have decided to spoil their ballots or not vote.
This sets the stage for Gordon Wilson – original BC Comeback Kid – who took the BC Liberal Party from obscurity to prominence in BC politics in the early 1990’s before his leadership was defiled by Gordon Campbell and his supporters in 1993. Despite being completely out of politics for more than a decade, anecdote suggests that Mr. Wilson’s political history provided in question 2 and his name give him decent support at 14%, including: (9%) of Adrian Dix and BC NDPers, (25%) of Christy Clark and BC Liberals, (8%) of John Cummins and BC Conservatives, and (37%) of Jane Sterk and BC Greens supporting his political comeback. Gordon Wilson attracts (16.5%) of all respondents who selected one of the four mainstream leaders and parties’. Gordon Wilson also attracts (9%) from those respondents who answered “I probably would spoil my ballot”, “I probably would not vote”, and “Undecided/Can’t Answer”.
Only a small portion of Christy Clark supporters in this poll believe she can win a fourth term for the BC Liberals. The question isn’t whether or not Christy should resign – but how fast it can be done.
The leaders and their parties score as follows regionally:
1st place - Adrian Dix and BC New Democrats (39%): (46%) Vancouver Island; (40.5%) Lower Mainland; (34%) Fraser Valley and Langley; (32%) North and Interior.
2nd place-John Cummins and BC Conservatives (24%): (20%) Vancouver Island; (22%) Lower Mainland; (34%) Fraser Valley and Langley; (31%) North and Interior.
3rd place-Jane Sterk and BC Greens (19%): (22.5%) Vancouver Island; (20%) Lower Mainland; (13%) Fraser Valley and Langley; (16.5) North and Interior.
4th place-Christy Clark and BC Liberals (16.5%): (10.5%) Vancouver Island; (17%) Lower Mainland; (19%) Fraser Valley and Langley; (20%) North and Interior.
Gordon Wilson’s (14%) support for a comeback is distributed as follows: (52.7%) of it is derived from the Lower Mainland, (33%) from Vancouver Island; (6%) from the Fraser Valley and Langley; and (11%) from the North and Interior of the province.
Christy Clark’s BC Liberal government isn’t just in trouble they are dead in the water. The BC New Democrats are losing their luster somewhat, while John Cummins BC Conservatives hold steady with majority support of the so-called free enterprise (centre right) vote – based on 2009 voters.
The BC Greens have exploded in support. They have done this before only to fade at election time, however these are different circumstances. Voters can’t wait for the BC Liberals to be gone, and many are not enamored with the specter of a BC NDP government in 2013. Many others are either disenchanted or disgusted with the conservative label – based largely on Prime Minster Stephen Harper’s connection to the Enbridge pipeline and other environmental concerns. Obviously the BC Green Party has become a default or protest vote with support in this poll more than double that of vote outcomes from the 2009 provincial election.
Gordon Wilson is re-introduced to the political scene as a former BC Liberal leader and BC New Democrat minister on the proposition of a potential comeback. He is welcomed by many BC Liberals – mostly rejected by BC New Democrats (in Trasolinian fashion) – but not before he hives off a sliver of their support which has declined by as much as 20% but more likely (13.5%) over the last few months.
Gordon Wilson also attracts between (20 and 25%) of his support from response sources in question 1 other than the four mainstream leaders and parties, remains not well known to many of these 2009 voters beyond the declaration of his political accomplishments, those there is sufficient anecdote to suggest that he is personally well liked by a noteworthy group of 2009 voters.
With a federal by-election set for Victoria, BC in the coming months running concurrent with the timeline to the May 2013 provincial general election – would Jane Sterk consider stepping down as BC Green leader to concentrate on winning that federal seat next to the riding presently occupied by her friend federal Green leader Elizabeth May – allowing a BC Green leadership contest -----?
A ROBBINS strategic calling environment – survey of 812 British Columbians from 2009 ROBBINS voters lists. This survey was conducted between August 28th and September 1st, 2012. This ROBBINS survey has a Margin of Error of (3.44%), 19 times out of 20, @ 95% confidence. Based on these ROBBINS numbers the BC NDP has a (100%) statistical probability of a lead over all other mainstream parties. The BC NDP leads the BC Conservatives by (3.2%) to (16.8%), leads the BC Greens by (6.8%) to (20.2%), and leads the BC Liberals by (8.3%) to (21.7%). The 2nd place BC Conservatives lead the 3rd place BC Greens statistically by (-3.4%) to (10.4%) with a probability of lead of (84%). BC Conservatives lead the 4th place BC Liberals by (-1.8%) to (11.8%) with a lead probability of (92%).

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