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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics October 1, 2012
  Oct 01, 2012

Question #1
Which BC leader and party do you currently support? (Provided to 100% for leader and party-Responses not rotated)
Adrian Dix and BC NDP    55 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    18.5 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives    16 %
Jane Sterk and BC Greens    10.5 %
I would spoil my ballot    3 %
I probably would not vote    8 %
Undecided/Can’t Answer    13 %
Question #2
John Van Dongen MLA for Abbotsford BC, left the BC Liberals most concerned about the payout of $6 million dollars in the Basi Virk – BC Rail affair. He joined the BC Conservatives and then just quit that party citing differences with leader John Cummins. He now sits as an independent in the BC Legislature along with Vicki Huntington and Bob Simpson. There are now 3 skillful Independents in the BC Legislature – would you seriously consider voting for additional Independents in May 2013?
Yes    26 %
No    61.5 %
Question #3
Which BC party is your second favourite? (Responses not rotated)
BC Greens    22 %
BC Conservatives    5.5 %
BC NDP    7.5 %
BC Liberals    .5 %
Question #4
Who do hope wins the 2012 US Presidential election? (Responses not rotated)
Democrat -Barack Obama    67 %
Republican-Mitt Romney    23.5 %
Question #5
Do you support Justin Trudeau’s run for leader of the Liberal Party of Canada?
Yes    37 %
No    46.5 %
Commentary
Question 1 (Commentary)
People - I have some news for you-good news apparently for more than one in two. First, the BC New Democrats are going win a landslide victory in the May 2013 British Columbia general election-if the current political situation in the province prevails. The evidence – like that one finds in a real court of law ---{somewhere – over the rainbow} begins with the fact that (13%) of BC Voters from 2009 who voted for BC Liberals in that election ----would prefer to either “spoil their ballot” or “probably would not vote”.
This number of depressed departures from ‘Christy Clark’s baking school’ would be sufficient in and of itself for BC NDP majority government. But People there is more—much more.
(15%) of BC Liberal voters from 2009 have now defected to the BC NDP, an increase to the Opposition at the expense of the government. This number of defections to the BC NDP alone would be sufficient for BC NDP government. That’s two sets of numbers each on their own - sufficient to compel a BC NDP majority -
The final axe that lops off Christy Clark’s head—{to ensure she is dead} - is that even after a far less than stellar performance from ‘cigar store honky - John Cummins’----the current version of the BC Conservatives (the dry toast—drying paint-I need a mannequin in my life) party -- still sucks out a net (30%) of 2009 BC Voter support from the BC Liberals. This alone is sufficient to collapse the BC Liberals—even though nearly one half of 2009 BC Voters (Wilf Hanni leader) have left the party and are now protesting or wait – wait – are now voting BC New Democrats – (welcome to the BC NDP real Refomers-not Martyn Brown). Now – that is three categories -each on their own- could provide the BC NDP a majority government---just keep looking ahead -‘AD’- and be certain not to promise a mural of a same sex orgy in the Victoria Museum as a tribute to human rights here in --not quite China.
There’s more – (4%) of 2009 BC Liberals have now departed for the BC Green Party.
It is not possible for Christy Clark and the BC Liberals to mount a comeback even if every eligible voter who didn’t vote in 2009 – voted in May 2013 – and voted overwhelmingly for BC Liberals and those who have left that party all returned to support them. It isn’t going to happen that way. It isn’t going to happen at all.
Will there be scrutineers in the next BC provincial election and do they promise to count all of the votes? Do you promise?
Christy Clark has stepped up with some announcements through this survey period. She has a cut a deal with the public service – that’s internal – let’s be honest - the general public is sick of paying for government workers. They are perceived as pretty much – lazy-or got it easy. Way it is. British Columbians want services back to the community they pay for– not people pushing paper for some King or Queen wanna be. If Adrian Dix needs more money that goes directly to benefit the real people (hereinafter the great unwashed) - who earn the real money – to meet their needs – and not the needs of closet elites –than ignore the alchemists – and their economics-artiste students and take on a little deficit – but not for new wages – hire more people to do real work –/than take it out of the government’s account – even if it’s the deficit account. The People are sick of paying for corporations and government official’s huge subsidies wages and pensions and then being asked to take it on the chin for health and education. Enough.
Hire more people to help ‘real’ people – not to help –themselves-.
Christy Clark is now threatening to meet with Alison Redford of Alberta /why? /- most people in British Columbia have become jaundiced about Alberta and Ottawa - because of the Enbridge pipeline deal, killing the coast guard (to shorten the witness list after the first big oil spill) and the persistent disgraceful efforts of the bought press to distract or promote the deal. Frankly, I expect that most men (and plenty of women) would rather see these two ladies- mud wrestling (after Ms. Redford holds down a meal or two)—one skeleton that apparently isn’t in the closet vs. Christy’s volumptwoofus. The pipeline won’t go through – not without bloodshed and violence – and no government wants that.
Christy has changed her mind and is not privatizing liquor stores – but again that is more about politics with the BCGEU than attracting voters. It’s a little ironic that the party of the booze/the party whose general unattractive toxic behavior ROBBINS owns all rights to --for posterity – tries to make a comeback on the back of the booze policy. We are what we manifest. The BC Liberals have become a negative party with negative leader and an apparent negative future.
Christy has no hope of changing the minds of BC voters – but even if she could –even a little – the first step back could be only have started with facing the music in the Legislature. Not going to the ‘Leg’ when you are way down in public support and attempting to finesse your way back with corporate soufflé polling and cheap public relations from a mainstream press that is NOW largely ignored by voters – is bottom line going to kill you -- and this survey is more evidence of this. A few sycophant writers with their mouths stuck on the zippers of long in the tooth journalists isn’t going to help change this station either.
To her credit Christy has realized that people want their services-all of them-full service- and don’t want to hear pundits and mainstream news reporters who too often don’t properly clean up after using the washrooms with big advertisers -- telling them to expect ‘zip’ – the people have maximized their charge cards to aid and abet the Big Banks – and their shareholders – and their complicit friends in the federal government---they want their Mulroney legacy – the environment – and they want their services – health, education and post secondary------and they expect they will receive these services through a BC New Democrat government. But ROBBINS is giving her this ‘Dixian’ credit – voters aren’t apparently biting however.
Question 2 (Commentary)
Our -John Van Dongen – Independent candidate question - poses some further questions about the ability of the BC press to properly and fairly diagnosis political events. John Van Dongen left the BC Liberals – primarily over what he (and everyone else in the province) perceived was political legal corruption over the Basi Virk payout of $6 million in legal fees they accumulated before admitting guilt to those corruption charges. In BC the principle of our law is that defendants who have their fees paid to be compelled to pay this money back if they are found guilty or plead guilty, not convicts get a $6 million pass. But this is British Columbia and the law is only as good as your last dollar and whose secrets you keep, and principle is just a word employed for convenience by those in position to do so. More a cozy club - than a democratic institution.
First it’s the Indo Canadian community perceived to be sanctifying bombings, corruption and general bad behaviour – now it appears it’s the Chinese community perceived “to want take us over”. My neighbours are Chinese – and they are terrific people – but don’t kid yourselves – there is a quiet discontent amongst the original settlers – and its starting with Aboriginals and moving through the Honky Chateau – at pace.
The entire BC Rail matter including this $6 million payout of Basi Virk makes the BC Courts and BC Government stink to high heaven with most British Columbians. Authority in the province – has little credibility and this is reflected in the numbers in question 2. Fight it – resist it – why is Dix even talking to business – leave them alone – the big ones are leeches – and the little ones don’t want your help – tax the big corporations and leave the small ones alone – and the entire planet will smile. There now – peace on earth.
Here are some interesting straw numbers on question 2. {55} BC NDP supporters from question 1 or (17%) of total would seriously consider an Independent candidate. Former BC New Democrat Bob Simpson one of the best MLA’s in the province is an Independent. A whopping (40%) of remaining Christy Clark and BC Liberal voters from 2009 would seriously consider an Independent candidate while an equally incredible (43.5%) of current John Cummins and BC Conservatives would seriously consider an Independent candidate. (29.5%) of Jane Sterk and BC Greens supporters – (52%) of voters who would spoil their ballot – (36.6%) of voters who wouldn’t vote, and (15.5%) of currently Undecided voters all suggest that they would seriously consider voting for an Independent candidate.
{ROBBINS can lead you to water – you gotta get off the Kool Aid first though}.
Approximately (40%) of BC voters from the 2009 provincial general election who profess to currently supporting BC Liberals and BC Conservatives – or alternatively are unhappy (spoil ballot – probably wouldn’t vote) would seriously consider an Independent candidate. Could BC centre right totals be reduced to less than 30% by the increase of Independents?
Question 3 (Commentary)
Less than (1%) of all BC votes in this ROBBINS survey – have BC Liberals have a second choice, while less than (6%) choose BC Conservatives as a second choice. In context – this question is the tombstone for the centre right in BC politics going forward. More particularly this is the straw that breaks the camels back.
Question 4 (Commentary)
If people in British Columbia who voted in the 2009 general provincial election could vote in the US Presidential election they would overwhelmingly support current President Barack Obama for a second term. Check this out – (96%) – NINETY-SIX PER CENT of current BC New Democrat supporters support US President Barack for a second term – (59%) of current BC Liberal supporters support Obama – (23%) of current BC Conservatives support Obama –(there’s a hint for y’all), (30%) of cranky BC voters (spoil-won’t vote) support Obama – while (57.5%) of Undecided BC voters support Obama.
Dude’s gonna win a second term – vote or not vote – this is North American Vibration. (see Beach Boys).
Question 5 (Commentary)
Justin Trudeau is evidence that in politics -as in life- timing is everything. Patience is a virtue. The wind is definitely at his back (and about to blow through the House). These are very big numbers for the Liberal Party of Canada in the Province of British Columbia. The question only asks respondents about support for him in his capacity as BC Liberal Party leader – BUT- Nearly as many respondents (BC Voters) support Justin Trudeau seeking the Liberal Party of Canada leadership – as support Adrian Dix for Premier (88.5%).
-We just want to see his face-
Imagine – the predominant anecdote from supporters is based on Justin Trudeau calling Peter Kent (Conservative) ‘a piece of shit’ in the House of Commons. The stuffy Ottawa – thinks were English/or French when we feel sexy- press may not have liked it – but his father – Pierre Elliot Trudeau – who must rank as the most charismatic leader of any western democracy in the second half of the 20th century – popped a bird at western Canadians – Dude had it all ---and then Justin was to get his bony ass kicked in a charity boxing match in Spring 2012 – those who loved him closed their eyes -- with a bona fide Karate Joe – only to turn the tables – like Ali - Foreman the bully Joe took a beating – and the underdog Justin Trudeau took the next step to what --
--I predict will be the biggest surprise in Canadian politics in a hundred years.
So-called ‘Mercurial’ (see Steve Miller Research) pollster Glen P. Robbins called for Trudeau in January 2012/like he called for Obama in January 2008/ – and well known journalist John Ivison (for referencing the polling of the dotty Scotty(s)) of the National Post-- looked up to the sky /saw the lightning bolt/pulled out his haggis and whiskey a go go/ – walked past the mud press with its head in the sand - or up its ass {knuckles for you and I} - (and thank you Baby Jesus for having the mud press leave us alone) – AND now-“Tonight on our show”- like an Angel descending from heaven – Justin Trudeau is arriving on the democratic scene/”The Beatles” – to help save Canada from its growing dark ---(your in a deep deep Conservative sleep) psyche – as featured in this ROBBINS Survey – a STRING of anecdote from BC Voters – saying –
“I’d vote him for Prime Minister”. Folks – welcome to 1968 in the year 2012.
Conclusion:
First things First. Rolling Stone Magazine called Rock Band Creedence Clearwater Revival the Greatest Rock N Roll Band in American history. I agree with this assessment. John Fogerty is CCR and CCR is John Fogerty. I recently attended the Fogerty concert in the fantastic Prospero Rock N Roll in equally fabulous Kelowna BC. It wasn’t just a rock concert – it was a spiritual revival – John Fogerty is the original Democrat and at ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) we salute him and his Revival of the true spirit of Rock N Roll.
To Business:
The BC Liberal house is divided in two - constituted of BC Liberals and BC Conservatives. Each of these two houses is divided again – making the centre right a division of quarters. The constant of evidence to both divided houses is represented by John Van Dongen of Abbotsford – Independent.
The In Vogue in BC politics are the BC New Democrats – who are graciously accepting the enormous gifts of divisions in centre right politics on the eve of a provincial election in our province. The next incarnation –to be placed could be the constitution of a Council of Independents – a quorum of six- with free votes and organized in such a fashion as to be eligible for party status. The centre right situation will work itself over time and its development will obviously hinge on the outcome of the May 2013 BC provincial election.
US President Democrat Barack Obama is nearly three times more popular than challenger Republican Mitt Romney among British Columbians. Liberal – leader in waiting Justin Trudeau- like Rock legend John Fogerty will reignite the spirit of many Canadians –which has flickered out in the drab Haunted House occupied by current PM Stephen Harper. The People want to feel good again – and politically I believe they are going to do something about it.
Methodology-
A ROBBINS survey of 781- 2009 Voters in the BC provincial general election. This 2009 election features an outcome {approximate} as follows: BC Liberals (46%); BC New Democrats (41.5%); BC Greens (7%); BC Conservatives (2%). This survey was conducted between September 26-29th, 2012. This ROBBINS survey features a margin of error of 3.51% plus or minus, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence level. The BC New Democrats have a {42.8% to 30.2%} lead over the BC Liberals and a (45.2% to 32.8%) lead over the BC Conservatives. Thanks to Jim Van Rassel for Research.

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