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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics November 8, 2012
  Nov 08, 2012

Question #1
Which leader and party in British Columbia do you currently support? (Party and Leader to 100%)
Adrian Dix and BC NDP    44.07 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    26.43 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives    17.17 %
Jane Sterk and BC Green Party    11.65 %
Undecided/Other leader and party    8 %
Question #2
How do you respond to this statement? I support a complete ban on all corporate and union donations to provincial political parties permitting instead only a maximum personal contribution limited to $1,000.
I agree    76 %
I disagree    18 %
Undecided    6 %
Question #3
Would you be willing to permit the government elected May 2013 to increase government deficit by $2 billion per year or 5% of annual BC revenues over the subsequent 4 years in order to accommodate the increasing interest payments on debt following the BC Liberal government; and to ensure at least an equivalent amount of spending for health, education and other necessary spending over that same period of time?
Yes    50 %
No    36 %
Question #4
Currently, big oil and gas, and other major industries are subsidized by British Columbians' to the tune of over $1 billion per year. In your opinion should all corporate subsidies in the BC provincial budget be terminated?
Yes    68 %
No    23.5 %
Question #5
Should annual ICBC profits be returned to insurance premium holders each year?
Yes    62 %
No    22 %
Question #6
Big oil in Alberta is considering an offer to British Columbians whereby $2 billion per year for a period of 20 years, or total amount of $40 billion, will be provided to OUR province for development of BC public schools, post secondary institutions and tuitions and other for long time permanent citizens of the province and vocational education in the Province of British Columbia, as well as $250 million per year allocated to B.C. First Nations groups also for a 20 year duration, in consideration of and for approval by British Columbians, for pipelines to be built across the northern portion of British Columbia by Enbridge Pipeline, as well as a Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion to the lower mainland of the province. In addition, as part of this offer, Big Oil from Alberta would be completely financially responsible for any potential damage to the environment caused by any oil spill caused in pipelines or through the offshore delivery of oil by tanker within the jurisdiction of British Columbia and Canada. If such consideration is offered with -complete clarity and no ambiguity- by Big Oil Alberta-- would you accept it? (56 repeats)
Yes    40.5 %
No    46.5 %
Question #7
Should tax payer revenue allocated to K-12 education be provided on a basis of 50 cents per dollar per student to private, independent and religious schools?
Yes    23 %
No    62 %
Question #8
Did you follow the news results of the BC Liberal convention in Whistler over the last weekend in October?
Yes    2.5 %
Question #9
BC Liberal leader Christy has been assessed by a consensus of pollsters including ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) as not being popular among women in the Province. Which of the following response choices best explains why this is?
Christy Clark isn’t trustworthy    30.5 %
Christy Clark isn’t competent to lead    28 %
Christy Clark leads an unpopular party    19 %
I believe Christy Clark is a good leader for the province    17 %
Undecided/Other    7.5 %
Question #10
How do you rate Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s performance?
Good    16.5 %
Fair    20 %
Poor    60 %
Commentary
The BC New Democrats continue to lead the BC Liberals based on decided voters from 2009 ROBBINS lists by (17.5%). Adrian Dix and his BC NDP Team maintain this lead in the midst of new low Undecided numbers – (around (5%) after factoring out “other” from 2009), with a provincial general election scheduled for May 2013. BC Voters have all but made their mind up/and early – and most intend to vote in the BC NDP. All that remains is to decide the extent of the BC NDP majority-tall, grande or venti.
The BC NDP totals reflect an ‘Obama- like’ total among gender with (55.5%) women and (44%) men supporting the party.
If there is good news for BC Liberals, it is the fact that that is no doubt that they have pulled away in public support from the BC Conservatives in two consecutive major ROBBINS surveys, and are no longer staring down at the abyss of political decimation.
The BC Liberals now hold a (9.5%) lead over the BC Conservatives who squandered their opportunity at Opposition with internal squabbling through September and October 2012. Despite this John Cummins and Co., the current BC Conservative support is solidifying and so is the centre right vote split in BC politics.
Jane Sterk and BC Greens continue to attract support (30%) higher than their 2009 provincial election totals. Of the approximately 100 respondents who support the BC Greens in this ROBBINS survey there is evidence that (7%) of them supported the BC Liberals in the 2009 general provincial election.
The BC New Democrats attract only (¼ of 1 per cent overall general support) from BC Greens 2009. The BC NDP have attracted (8.5%) of their party’s current support from former BC Liberals (2009), of which (61%) are women voters.
Based on this ROBBINS survey information alone, if EVERY current BC Conservative respondent in this ROBBINS survey who supported BC Liberals in the 2009 election (15% approximately) in 2009, switched back to the BC Liberals on election night, the BC New Democrats would still easily win a majority government.
Based on these numbers there is absolutely NO possibility of the BC Liberals winning a 4th consecutive term, with the only realistic objective for them a solid standing on the Opposition benches…
….unless Christy Clark and the BC Liberals have a Hail Mary pass -
The problems for the BC Liberals begin with the fact that BC voters believe they have been in office too long. British Columbians are “sick” of them. Another factor – linked to the first- is that the BC Liberals have become, or are perceived by the public to be - corrupt or at least dishonest, shifty and/or shady and devoid of any new ideas or vision for the province. The party is perceived by the public as a beaten and tired lot, despite erstwhile attempts at renewal and recent cheerleading events at their annual convention at Whistler, ignored by attention given to a significant earthquake off the coast of the province, hurricane Sandy in the northeastern United States, and the incredible contest for US President. The advantage for the BC Liberals is that despite their laundry list of problems they are still seen as more credible than their cousins in the BC Conservative party.
The HST broke the BC Liberal ‘back’ – while other matters including the awakening of British Columbians to the fact that the BC Judicial system (the other half of the law making) was not what they believed (or hoped) it to be (BC Rail – Vasi Birk), and more recently the fact that current BC Liberal leader and unelected premier Christy Clark – who simply hasn’t worked out as a leader, produces a circumstance pre election where the best case scenario for the BC Liberals – makes them – a distant- Opposition in May 2013 confronting an NDP majority.
Our ROBBINS question 7 “BC Liberal leader Christy has been assessed as not being popular among women in the Province. Which of the following response choices best explains why this is?”
One in five respondents blames Christy Clark’s unpopularity on her party, while barely (16%) of all 2009 BC Voters “believe Christy Clark is a good leader for the province.” Nearly (63%) of ‘Decided’ 2009 British Columbians are of the opinion that: “Christy Clark isn’t trustworthy” or “Christy Clark isn’t competent to lead”. (61.5%) of respondents who support John Cummins and BC Conservatives in question 1, selected one of these two response options, while the remainder blamed the BC Liberal party and (1 only) BC Conservative supporter was Undecided. Based on these numbers – I would estimate that if Christy Clark takes from the BC Conservative party – the upside amount is 1-3%.
(64%) of respondents who said “Christy Clark isn’t trustworthy” are women, while (61%) of respondents who said “Christy Clark isn’t competent to lead” are men. Apparently there is a divide between genders as to whether or not BC Premier Christy Clark is more “untrustworthy” or more “incompetent”.
One woman respondent stated clearly that she thought “Campbell was dishonest and –she’s (Christy Clark) is no better. Another woman said – “The HST made me angry – Christy Clark said she would get rid of it and I still see the tax on things that there wasn’t tax on before.” Christy Clark inherited the ‘plethoric pool’ of female dislike of Gordon Campbell – like the transfer of a wart from one persons finger to another – and then diligently developed her own pool of women who really don’t care for her.
Electoral finance reform should become an issue during the upcoming provincial election. British Columbians have become ‘anti corporation’ over the past years, and feel that corporate money has taken over the political system (judicial system too). The BC NDP have challenged the BC Liberals to become reformers on electoral finance. British Columbians are also dead set against subsidies to any enterprise whether it is oil and gas or the film industry – a line in the sand has been drawn and voters are tired of being made afraid by politicians speaking on behalf of industries that want special treatment.
{-Really – how many more times can provincial and federal conservatives scare us with recession? – hell just bring it on- - and keep whining about it Flaherty – and whomever.}
Our question 3 involves the fact that short term debt instruments are coming due over the next few years attract interest payments in the neighbourhood of 5-6%. These interest payments take money from major spending like health care and education, and according to this survey a clear majority of British Columbians are willing to permit the BC NDP to increase deficits over the coming years to ensure that programs are available.
Voters CLEARLY believe they have absorbed the austerity hit and don’t believe that the provincial government has done its share to do the same. A common complaint among respondents in ALL of our polls conducted in British Columbia is the perceived entitlement of elected officials, bureaucrats and otherwise entitled – while the middle class and poverty class takes it on the chin. On this – there is much common ground among both BC NDP and BC Conservative supporters.
A significant majority of British Columbians want ICBC to give back profits to premium holders. The question of ICBC profits has potential to be a major issue during the next election.
Much of the current voter angst in British Columbia is clearly against the BC Liberal Party – but there is a plenty of protest being directed at Prime Minister Stephen Harper whose popularity in the Province of British Columbia is dropping like a rock. The Prime Minister’s “Good” numbers are (8-10%) in Vancouver, Burnaby and New Westminster. Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s goodwill with British Columbians is in serious decline.
According to this ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) poll – The Most Accurate Pollster in the World, a majority of British Columbians cannot be bribed to accept the new pipelines to transport crude oil from Alberta. The prospect of $40 billion in Big Oil payments over twenty years for education in the province, with an additional $5 billion for aboriginal communities in the province isn’t enough to find majority support among British Columbians by a long shot. The fact is / this money has not in fact been offered, but the amount suggested in the question is likely much more than has even be contemplated and British Columbians still say “NO” to Big Oil pipelines.
A clear majority of British Columbians don’t want to see tax payer dollars – their dollars allocated to private independent and religious schools.
Politically though – the question of big dollars is sufficient to induce the movement (23.5%) of New Democrat supporters to accept the proposition – which is interesting – because BC Greens aren’t moving – for any price and over (70%) of BC Liberals and BC Conservatives are willing to take the deal.
Survey numbers by region (decided) – BC New Democrats: Vancouver Island (52%), Lower Mainland (47.5%), Langley and Fraser Valley (33%), North and Interior (37%). BC Liberals: Vancouver Island (21%), Lower Mainland (24%), Langley and Fraser Valley (33%), North and Interior (31%). BC Conservatives: Vancouver Island (14.5%), Lower Mainland (14%), Langley and Fraser Valley (27%), North and Interior (23%). BC Greens: Vancouver Island (12%), Lower Mainland (14%) Langley and Fraser Valley (7%), North and Interior (9%). This ROBBINS survey conducted between November 1st and 6th, 2012 features 1,104 respondents throughout ‘The Province of British Columbia – where we ply are trade’.
This ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) Survey features a Margin of Error of 2.95%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence based on the survey sample size only. Based on our own estimates we believe the Margin of Error – is closer to 1.45% plus or minus.
Special thanks to Jim Van Rassel – and MRDR Inc for their assistance.
This poll was developed, written and produced by Glen P. Robbins in conjunction with Kellie K. Robbins. Glen P. Robbins has a University degree in political science (BA); while Kellie K. Robbins has a University degree in philosophy and labour studies –both from Simon Fraser University campus on Burnaby Mountain, beautiful British Columbia.

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