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RSR ROBBINS Research - British Columbia Politics January 1, 2013
  Jan 01, 2013

Question #1
Which British Columbia provincial party do your currently support?
BC New Democrats    45.26 %
BC Liberals    35.18 %
BC Conservatives    10.88 %
BC Greens    9.28 %
Undecided    8 %
Question #2
Which of the following political leaders and party label do you most support? (Decided Reflected in Totals)(not rotated)
Justin Trudeau and Federal Liberal Party    32.43 %
Stephen Harper and Federal Conservative    26.16 %
Thomas Mulcair and Federal New Democratic Party    29.79 %
Elizabeth May and Federal Green Party    13.39 %
Undecided    11 %
Question #3
Should government public servants be permitted to ‘bank’ sick days to take advantage of them at some future date?
Yes    33 %
No    67 %
Question #4
Which of the following response choices BEST describes the role that gender plays in making your decision for Premier, Prime Minister or other political leader?
Gender plays little or no role in my decision for political leader    53 %
I probably have a bias favouring men as political leaders    27 %
I probably have a bias favouring women as political leaders    14 %
Question #5
The Harmonized Sales Tax goes back to the Provincial Sales Tax in April 2013 one month prior to the BC Provincial Election. Which of the following response choices BEST reflects who deserves most credit for this?
Former BC Premier Bill Vander Zalm and the Fight HST forces    41 %
The NDP Opposition Party    28.5 %
The Christy Clark government    11 %
None of these    19.5 %
Commentary
Vancouver Island (Provincial) BC New Democratic Party-51.5% BC Liberal Party-31% BC Green Party-10% BC Conservative Party-7.5% (Undecided-6%)
Vancouver City (Provincial) BC New Democratic Party-45.5% BC Liberal Party-38.5% BC Green Party-10% BC Conservative Party-6% (Undecided-6%)
Suburban Vancouver (Provincial) BC New Democratic Party-44% BC Liberal Party-37% BC Conservative Party-9.5% BC Green Party-9.5% (Undecided-8%)
Fraser Valley (includes Langley, Mission, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows) (Provincial) BC New Democratic Party-39% BC Liberal Party-35% BC Conservative Party-13% BC Green Party-(9.5%) Other-3% (Undecided-5.5%)
Southern Interior (Provincial) BC New Democrat Party-40% BC Liberals-36.5% BC Green Party-10% BC Conservative Party-13.5% (Undecided-9%)
Northern Interior (Provincial) BC New Democrat Party-43% BC Liberal Party-38% BC Green Party-7.5% BC Conservative Party-8% Other-3.5% (Undecided-12%)
By Gender BC Provincial Party (Male) BC New Democrats (41.5%) BC Liberals (37%) BC Conservatives (13.5%) BC Greens (8%)
By Gender BC Provincial Party (Female) BC New Democrats (47%) BC Liberals (31%) BC Greens (10%) BC Conservatives (9.5%)
Justin Trudeau and Federal Liberal Party-32.43% (Vancouver Island-(28%); Vancouver City (38%); Vancouver Suburbs (34%); Fraser Valley (31%); Southern Interior (28%); Northern Interior (27%)
Stephen Harper and Federal Conservative Party-26.16% (Vancouver Island (23%); Vancouver City (22%); Vancouver Suburbs (28%); Fraser Valley (32%); Southern Interior (27%); Northern Interior (23%)
Thomas Mulcair and Federal New Democratic Party-29.79% (Vancouver Island (32%); Vancouver City (28%); Vancouver Suburbs (31%); Fraser Valley (28%); Southern Interior (26.5%), Northern Interior (34%)
Elizabeth May and Federal Green Party-13.19% (Vancouver Island (17%); Vancouver City (12%), Vancouver Suburbs (7%), Fraser Valley (9%), Southern Interior (18%), Northern Interior (16%)
Both ‘centre left’ parties are well up in support from 2009, the BC New Democrats by (7.5%) and BC Greens by (13%). ‘centre right’ (BC Liberal + BC Conservative) total support from 2009 is down at January 2013 just months prior to the next provincial general election - by (2%) overall, while ‘centre left’ (BC NDP + BC Green) is up (4%) overall. Fact One: centre left parties are more popular than Centre right parties in British Columbia and more popular than they were in 2009.
The BC Liberal government is inching up in Voter support toward the BC New Democrats, adding (10%) in overall support to their previous autumn 2012 totals, all of it taken back from the BC Conservatives, who are currently suffering from a failing Conservative label because of the actions of the Stephen Harper Conservative majority government (more inclined to develop entitlements for the dead than the living), and as a consequence of a less than busy work schedule (or alternatively the press refusing to cover them {no $$ from BCC for the mainstream media mafia}). Christy Clark’s BC Liberal party is now within 10 points of the BC New Democrats with 4 months to go (well ahead of BC Liberal agent Michael McDonald’s schedule). Fact Two: The BC Liberals are back in competition with the BC NDP - based on these numbers they will lose by 17 seats in May 2013.
The BC Greens are ahead of their 2009 totals heading toward Election Day - a familiar refrain in provincial Green polling prior to election time in this province - that historically fails to materialize at the ballot box. However this time around, the popularity of the federal Greens in BC and the huge respect that many Canadians and British Columbians have for Federal Green Party leader Elizabeth May – Canadian Parliamentarian of the Year - may factor in the provincial version of the Green party holding these higher totals, an electoral condition that the BC Liberals desperately need to exist for their party to stay in the race for the delicious BC Tax Payer cheque book with the BC NDP. (Whose friends will get rich in the next four years – those on the left or the right?). As it sits right now, based on these ROBBINS totals in every region of the Province of British Columbia, the BC New Democrats look to win a Super majority and an additional 19-22 seats over their 2009 seat totals for a May 2013 outcome of 50-55 seats. With Independents Bob Simpson, Vicki Huntington, and John Van Dongen looking to pick up at least 2 or possibly all 3 of the ‘Independent’ seats in the BC Legislature, this leaves the BC Liberals to hold around 30 seats - a drop of one third of 2009 seat totals. Based on these ROBBINS numbers if the BC NDP can reduce BC Green totals to 2009 electoral levels than they could win as many as 55-60 seats despite the dramatic increase in BC Liberal support over the past two months. Even if all current BC Conservative support went to the BC Liberal column tomorrow, and all other ROBBINS numbers remained equal, the BC NDP would still form a majority government by a slim margin of 5 to 6 seats. Fact Three: The BC Liberals need the BC Greens to do better at the ballot box in order to avert electoral disaster.
The big lead the BC NDP holds over the BC Liberals heading into the upcoming spring election, may be impacted somewhat on voter gender preference for leaders featured in our Question #4. This ROBBINS poll reflects a (13%) preference for male leadership over female leadership. Twenty four per cent (24%) of the voters who support a male leader over a female one are themselves female. This Made in British Columbia preference for male leaders over female ones - is particularly acute with centre right voters (BC Liberals and BC Conservatives). The Quiet conversation in coffee shops and lunch tables among men (and some women) – continues to promote the not-so-old notion that women are too emotional, too erratic, lacking reasonableness or common sense and that political leadership remains an exclusively male bastion – oh where have you gone Margaret Thatcher? Is this what is hurting Christy Clark – her gender and a lack of confidence in female leaders, or is it simply that she (personally) doesn’t have what it takes to be Premier of the Province? Is the BC Liberal problem now Christy Clark? What is the truth? -- Not the political correctness. Fact Four-Women are not as popular for electoral leader as men are - particularly among centre right Voters. Given that Centre right parties are not as popular as Centre left parties in BC, and that men are more popular as leaders as women are – then Christy Clark will hurt BC Liberal electoral chances.
Justin Trudeau has not been chosen the federal Liberal leader yet, and in fact that he has very tough leadership competition among other very competent federal Liberal candidates. The reality however is that when there is federal political talk in British Columbia and that talk is about leaders – it’s almost always about Mr. Trudeau—and it’s almost always positive. The bandwagon that is growing to support him for not only leader of his party but for Prime Minister of Canada is so exceptional it is almost difficult to understand and comprehend – but its there/ –/ it’s a real Canadian phenomenon and it continues on an upward trajectory – like a NASA Space rocket. Justin Trudeau’s impact on Canadian politics is undeniable and the evidence is obvious across the nation in the Province of British Columbia in this ROBBINS poll. Liberal numbers for support from provincial voters are as high as they have ever been, and most of this appears to be at the expense of Stephen Harper’s Conservative government which is witnessing a serious decline in support in B.C. It may be over two years until the next federal election, and yes anything can happen in politics in a short period of time – but the smart bets based on this ROBBINS poll – are against Stephen Harper and for Justin Trudeau, with federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair thick in the mix. (Private Pollster Glen P. Robbins telephoned federal Liberal candidate Joyce Murray in 2011 (the only political call he has ever made) and ‘informed her’ that his “epiphany” foresaw Justin Trudeau becoming Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and Prime Minister of Canada --- a vision as powerful as when he saw Barack Obama in late 2007 in the White House – later evidenced in the most important public opinion poll in the free world in the last 25 years, a ROBBINS AMERICA poll which followed in February 2008 evidencing Barack Obama with a 5 point lead on Hillary Clinton the provisional favourite, 12- 20 points ahead of Barack Obama in every major US poll at the time). (This Glen P. Robbins “vision” was again witnessed in the production of a ROBBINS CANADA January 2012 Justin Trudeau becoming a political ‘game changer’ in Canadian politics – a poll re produced in the National Post under the name of journeyman journalist John Ivison followed later by a succession of Canadian ‘poodle polls’ evidencing the same results). Fact Five: Justin Trudeau is the real deal and instead of splitting the centre left vote will damage Stephen Harper and Conservative Party seat totals in the Province of British Columbia.
Thomas Mulcair’s federal New Democrats are holding solid support around 30%, but the federal party (seldom the equal of their provincial counterparts) currently remains under 70 per cent of the BC NDP totals. The other big surprise other than the Liberals is Elizabeth May and federal Greens percolating along at over (13%) support including big numbers in Victoria, Vancouver and the Southern Okanagan. It is evident by the numbers in this ROBBINS poll that BC provincial voters are moving toward the middle or to the left of the political spectrum and abandoning the centre right parties perceived negatively as acting in the interests of big business over the interests of those who pay for most of government…the people. What is starkly evident as well is the negative attitude of voters toward benefits for the public service. This is evidenced in this ROBBINS poll by the overwhelming majority of BC voters (2009) who reject the existing policy of permitting public servants to ‘bank’ sick days. How will the growing demand for centre left parties reconcile with the equal demand for less benefits for public service employees? Fact Six: British Columbians' are not happy about the public service and believe they are an overly entitled and unduly unaccountable lot.
It is remarkable after a period of years that former BC Premier Bill Vander Zalm remains as the primary beneficiary of credit for the upcoming change from the HST back to the PST. Less than two thirds of BC NDP supporters give credit to their party for this anticipated change back to the PST. Curious eh? Given the numbers giving credit to Christy Clark in this question – I would not advise that she bust any ‘Gangdam Style’ moves on the day the tax goes back to the PST (cue artists rendition). Fact Seven: The BC Liberal government may be in power when the HST goes back to the PST but a massive majority of British Columbians (including BC Liberal supporters) aren’t giving them credit for it. Further, British Columbians aren’t giving the Opposition NDP the bulk of the credit either --- they are giving this social policy credit to Bill Vander Zalm. (What is more delicious than political irony?)
A ROBBINS Sce Research (1998) Survey of 4,687 - 2009 British Columbia “Voters” between December 3 and December 28, 2012 with no interviews conducted December 24, 25, or 26th. This Survey is a well conducted reflection of a pro rate number of 2009 BC Voters from each of six (6) regions of the Province of British Columbia over the course of two sweeps of each region with the 2 scores averaged. This Major Pre Election ROBBINS Big Ballot is 1.43% 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. This ROBBINS Survey was sponsored in part by The Westwood Associates.

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