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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics February 15, 2013
  Feb 15, 2013

Question #1
From the following response choices which political leader and party do you currently support?
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    29 %
Thomas Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    28.5 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    28 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    9 %
Other Party (Quebec (other/none of these))    5.5 %
Question #2
In your opinion should the Canadian Senate be:
Elected    36 %
Abolished    46 %
Stay as is    12 %
Undecided    6 %
Question #3
In your opinion should Canadian soldiers returning from combat with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder and other mental illness such as depression be compensated by the Government of Canada?
Yes    72 %
No    11 %
Question #4
From the following response choices which one best reflects how you would judge Stephen Harper's Conservative government on the environment?
Good    11 %
Fair    23 %
Poor    54.5 %
Undecided    11.5 %
Commentary
Justin Trudeau - odds on favourite to win the Liberal Party of Canada leadership leads all leaders and parties in this ROBBINS poll of Canadians. Statistically the Liberal party is tied with the New Democrats and Conservatives.
The highest number of respondents wants the Canadian Senate abolished.
An overwhelming majority of Canadians are of the opinion that "Canadian soldiers returning from combat with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder and other mental illnesses such as depression be compensated by the Government of Canada."
Over (61%) of decided Canadians are of the opinion that the Harper Conservative government is doing a poor job on the environment.
Support across the country for the leading federal Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau is as follows: BC (30%), Alberta (23%), Saskatchewan (23%), Manitoba (20%), Ontario (34%),Quebec (22.5%), Atlantic Provinces (34%).
Support for the second place New Democrats is as follows: BC (31.5%), Alberta (21%), Saskatchewan (23%), Manitoba (20%), Ontario (26%), Quebec (37%), and Atlantic Provinces (33%).
Support for the third place Harper Conservatives is as follows: BC (28%), Alberta (47%), Saskatchewan (23%), Manitoba (33%), Ontario (30%), Quebec (11%) Atlantic Provinces (26%).
Support for the 4th place federal Green party is as follows: BC (11%), Alberta (9%), Saskatchewan (6%), Manitoba (8%), Ontario (10%), Quebec (7%), Atlantic Provinces (7%).
The introduction of Justin Trudeau into federal leadership in Canadian politics, the relative consistency of the federal New Democrats and the growing doubts in Stephen Harper's government produces a three way race with no party able to achieve (30%) support.
The big political story in Canada continues to be Justin Trudeau where speculation during his leadership run (and before) has seen his support run from (30%) to as high as (40%). This ROBBINS poll reflects continued good news but in a more sober light as Canadians settle in for the 3 way battle for their vote over the next two years, and prior to Justin Trudeau actually being elected leader.
Thomas Mulcair's New Democrats are solid and will continue to compete in most provinces across country.
It's still early - but Stephen Harper is not going to win a second consecutive majority and he likely knows this. His challenge after years of having it relatively easy is to retain enough seats for minority government. This slippage in support must be worrisome for him.
Most Canadians are clearly against keeping the Canadian Senate. The news of late on the Senate has been bad to awful, with Senators not following simple rules and instead living the life of Riley on tax payer dollars.
Canadians in this ROBBINS poll are clearly offended by the Canadian Senate, and not impressed with Stephen Harper who they believed had the right stuff to make reforms where they were necessary. Instead he performed like many before him and benefited from the problem rather than fix it.
Quebecers and British Columbians are provinces where the public is least likely to support keeping the Senate as it is (7%, 9%), while Saskatchewan is the province most wanting to abolish it. Ontario is the most likely to want an elected Senate (39%).
Once again - BC and Quebec combine to reflect similar numbers regarding the Canadian public's judgment of Stephen Harper's Conservative government on the environment at (58% and 61%) respectively. Ontario has the highest "Good" at (16%) and Alberta the highest "Fair" at (53%).
Methodology-This is a random call of interviews by telephone of 1,601 Canadians (February 13-20, 2013) who indicated they were eligible to vote in a Canadian general federal election. The Margin of Error (M.O.E.) of this ROBBINS poll is 2.45%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence. Provincial participation for respondents is as follows and adjusted to reflect actual voter turnout per province. British Columbia (547) (4.19%), Alberta (131) (8.56%), Saskatchewan (54) (NA), Manitoba (101) (9.74%), Ontario (411) (4.83%), Quebec (213) (6.71%), Atlantic Provinces (144) (8.71%). Final percentage from tally were adjusted using those numbers plus other statistically valid averaging techniques.
Special thanks to Jim Van Rassel - sponsor for this poll - and congratulations on his 25 years owning New Trend Optical. This is ROBBINS 15th year of conducting public opinion polls.

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