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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics October 24, 2013
  Oct 24, 2013

Question #1
Which federal leader and party do you currently support?
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    34 %
Thomas Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    30 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    27 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    4 %
Other leader(s) and party/Independent    5 %
{Undecided}    7 %
Question #2
Which one of the following events BEST grabs your attention these days?
The government Throne Speech and implications for the budget    18 %
Ottawa's Senate scandal    50 %
Canada's trade agreement with Europe    28 %
None of these    5 %
Commentary
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative government is in serious trouble. Rocked and on the ropes - bleeding - scandal the government's popularity is down across the nation over (30%)sufficient to declare this situation a political emergency.
Most noteworthy losses for the Conservative government occur in the provinces of Ontario and Alberta.
These RSR survey numbers reveal that Canadians are ultimately pinning the Senate mess on the PM--as they observe the Senators in the middle of the scandal being led to the political gallows without a fair hearing (Canada's newest tradition)-- and the PM hopping his jet for Europe to sign a deal where the devil remains in the details - which naturally loops us back to the Senate scandal.
Voters in the western provinces, including many conservatives, believe the PM has brought much of this on himself. They are confused by Stephen Harper and are beginning to doubt his ability to lead, when he chooses to give the appearance of being cool and in control, while events all around him appear to be out of control.
Thomas Mulcair leader of the New Democratic Opposition is certainly holding up his end of the promise to keep Jack Layton's NDP flame alive, he loves a blue collar brawl - his eyes twinkling in delight as he stalks the Prime Minister toward the ropes for a barrage of body blows. Mr. Mulcair remains the best communicator on Parliament Hill and is good television.
Having said that, will an NDP leader ever be able to convince Canadians that they are capable of being prudent on the money side of the ledger, because at the end of the day trust is number one with voters and the ability to keep the country solvent and its citizens free from economic fear second.
The federal Liberal Party under leader Justin Trudeau continues to do exceptionally well, nearly doubling their 2011 election day totals at the expense of all other parties - across the entire nation.
The federal Liberals are scoring consistently in the mid 30's in all polls.
Experienced pollster Nik Nanos told the CBC political show that the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff were doing as well - and they were beaten horribly at election time. What is it about this time around with Justin Trudeau that just seems different?
We believe it is because the younger Mr. Trudeau is fresh and exciting - as his father Prime Minister Trudeau was in the late sixties when he came on the scene and branded a young tough country with the 'tat' of charisma. Where the first Trudeau had splashes of arrogance that highlighted his 145 IQ - the younger Trudeau is more innocent -- more graceful - with more humility and sensibility - like the young people who supported his father.
The Father and Son manifestation of idealism is really quite attractive - isn't it?
More practically, the Liberal brand is the natural political brand of the country and many Canadians who have been holding their breath for nearly a decade are beginning to exhale slowly accepting that change is possible and given the numbers in this RSR survey - likely.
In the last federal election in May 2011 the Conservative Party of Canada achieved (39.62% of the public vote; the New Democratic Party of Canada 30.63%; the Liberal Party of Canada 18.91%; Green Party of Canada 3.91%; and Bloc Quebecois 6.04%. {Bloc Quebecois numbers of 4.05% are included as total other leader and party}.
1st position: Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party: BC (29%); Alberta (23%); Saskatchewan (21%); Manitoba (30%); Ontario (37%); Quebec (24%); New Brunswick (22%); Nova Scotia (28%); PEI (52%); Newfoundland and Labrador (47%).
2nd position: Thomas Mulcair and New Democrats - BC (27%); Alberta (24%); Saskatchewan (29%); Manitoba (32%); Ontario (28%); Quebec (38%); New Brunswick (19%); Nova Scotia (29%); PEI (19%); Newfoundland and Labrador (23%).
3rd position: Stephen Harper and Conservatives- BC (28%); Alberta (42%); Saskatchewan (46%); Manitoba (32%); Ontario (26%); Quebec (15%); New Brunswick (34%); Nova Scotia (25%); PEI (19%); Newfoundland and Labrador (23%).
(95%) of 2011 Canadian voters have had their attention grabbed to varying degrees by one of the three response choices offered, the Throne Speech, Senate scandal or the EU Free Trade agreement.
The Senate scandal has been going on for a long period of time and is well known to Canadians. Although many are intrigued by the events and the high drama - the bad (or sad) news is that these events have brought Canadians opinions of politicians to a new low (even lower then they may have been) with one women respondent describing the scandal as "evidence of what I had suspected about politicians for some time".
(44%) of Conservative supporters in this RSR survey are most 'grabbed' by the EU deal, with (32%) grabbed by the Senate scandal and the balance focusing on the Throne Speech, or not having their attention grabbed.
(59%) of Liberal supporters are 'grabbed' by the Senate scandal, (26%) by the EU free trade deal and (11%) by the Throne speech and (3%) by none of the tangible choices.
(23%) of New Democrats are grabbed by the Throne Speech, (56%) by the Senate scandal, and (21%) by the EU deal.
(42%) of Green supporters are not 'grabbed' by any of the response choices, while the remainder are split over the three response choices. Other leader and party are focusing on the EU deal and the Senate scandal.
(42%) of Green party supporters are not 'grabbed' by any of the response choices, while the remaining respondents are split over the three response choices. Other leader and party response supporters are focusing on the EU deal and the Senate scandal.
Methodology: This RSR Survey conducted October 15th to October 23rd 2013 features 1,003 respondents who voted in the most recent federal general election on May 2, 2011. This survey features a margin of error of 3.1%, 19 times out of 20 at 95% confidence. This survey is supported by Jim Van Rassel and the 'New Millionaires'.

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