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RSR ROBBINS - US race for President 2016 -
  Jan 30, 2016

Question #1
Of the following candidates offered as response choices who do you most support for president at this 'point in time'?
Hillary Clinton (Democrat)    23.44 %
Bernie Sanders (Democrat)    22.41 %
Marco Rubio (Republican)    14.11 %
Donald Trump (Republican)    12.63 %
Jeb Bush (Republican)    10.32 %
Martin O'Malley (Democrat)    4.27 %
Undecided/Can't Answer    12.87 %
Question #2
If you were given a $100 gift, and had to use it to bet on who would eventually win the presidency in November 2016, understanding that if you chose correctly you would win $1,000, or tens time the $100 which of the candidates would you bet to win?
Hillary Clinton    27.71 %
Bernie Sanders    20.44 %
Donald Trump    11.55 %
Marco Rubio    12.33 %
Jeb Bush    8.41 %
Martin O'Malley    0 %
Undecided/Can't Answer    20.68 %
Question #3
My Ethnic background is:
African American    11.83 %
Caucasian    65.21 %
Latino    14.38 %
Asian/Other    3.53 %
Would not provide response    8.26 %
Democrat Hillary Clinton leads all candidates in RSR ROBBINS “Saucy Six” presidential poll. The former Secretary of State leads 'upstart' Democrat junior Senator Bernie Sanders by (1%), Republican Marco Rubio by (9%), Republican Donald Trump by (11%), and Republican Jeb Bush by (13%) according to responses in question 1.
Democrat candidate responses attract (50%) of overall respondent choices for “for president at this point in time”, while Republicans attract (37%), a (13%) lead for Democrat candidates in question 1.
When hypothetical 'gift bet' from question two is applied to the same response choices as offered in question 1, Hillary Clinton's bet popularity (BP) explodes ahead of her Democratic competitor Bernie Sanders and all Republican candidates. In fact, Ms. Clinton's BP total is nearly (88%) of total BP of all Republican response choices in question 2.
Ms. Clinton draws 'BP' from Bernie Sanders, Undecided/Can't Answer, and all three Republican candidates from question 1 to question 2.
Support composition from Ethnic background (q 3 to q 1):
Hillary Clinton has the highest percentage of African Americans “Voters” in her support composition (“SC”) - (18.31%), while Martin O'Malley (3.56%); Jeb Bush (4.55%) and Bernie Sanders (5.27%) have the lowest.
Donald Trump attracts the highest percentage of Caucasian “Voters” in his support composition (84.04%) while Marco Rubio has the lowest at (59.76%).
Marco Rubio possesses the highest percentage of Latino “Voters” in his support composition (23.44%) with Jeb Bush at (19.22%). The lowest Latino support in support composition is Donald Trump at (2.32%).
Donald Trump has the highest percentage of Asian “Voters” in his support composition (8.24%) with Marco Rubio the lowest at (1.98%)
Based on support and composition of support Hillary Clinton performs the best out of all candidates in our RSR “Saucy Six” presidential poll with Bernie Sanders a very close second.
Bernie Sanders needs to identify more African American Voter support. If his total of African American support were more in line with Election Voting Totals, he would be about tied with Hillary Clinton.
We don't believe, based on these numbers, that Bernie Sanders can win southern States and accordingly, believe Hillary Clinton to be the favourite to win the Democratic Party nomination to seek the presidency November 2016. Much of this outcome will depend on who Lynyrd Skynyrd is supporting (“hey what are doing with that flag”?) (Bernie Sanders might want to ask permission to use “Simple Man”).
Marco Rubio performs very well with Latino voters but needs to bring up his composition of Caucasian and African American voters to Election voting patterns. With improved totals among both of these ethnic groups he could compete for president as the Republican nominee.
Donald Trump's composition is far short of overall ethnic totals for African American and Latino Voters. He performs well among Caucasian and Asian Voters. Despite a pretty good hold on many Americans, it is doubtful Mr. Trump will win the nomination unless or until he can change his campaign image among all ethnic backgrounds. He is in great shape to launch another television show as his support is nearly equal to his best Apprentice numbers.
A good suggestion might be a reality TV show of him running for president. "It's No Secret" that would blow a few minds.
Jeb Bush's ethnic composition requires more African American support as well. Might be wise to ask Jim Brown former running back with the Cleveland Browns if he would help. Both Mr. Bush and Marco Rubio need some of Donald Trump's Caucasian Voter support.
Jeb Bush has spent a lot of money and has had limited success with it. However, I would not count him out of the Republican race, he remains the Republican establishment. If he does not perform well in primary races and his numbers are not up by March-April 2016 he would best leave it to Marco Rubio to contest Donald Trump.
The one bright light for the Republicans is that the Latino vote may be turned their way but not with Donald Trump at the helm. To be successful Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush and the Republican Party must push Donald Trump off the roof and be the only Republican candidates left running.
This is an RSR ROBBINS poll of 2,013 U.S “Voters” by telephone method of communication who claim to have voted in the last three U.S. Elections (won by Obama (2012), Obama (2008), Bush (2004)), and who intend to vote in the next (2016) undertaken January 20th, to 28th, 2016. The margin of error based on population of average voters through those three elections is (2.13%) plus or minus.
This method of 'lining up' Democrats and Republicans in one combined list – is different than presenting them in head to head contest. Inclusive of “Undecided/Can't Answer” - 7 response choices makes random @ 14.29%.
Based on voter turnout of 130,000,000 voters Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders (Democrats) hold an estimated 30 million each (extrapolated) while Marco Rubio holds 18.5 million. Donald Trump holds 17 million voters (adjusted for gender).
Based on estimated average viewership of Donald Trump's Apprentice show commencing 2004 (George W. Bush's 2nd term) viewership declined steadily from just over 20,000,000 viewers to about 5,000,000 a year or so prior to break up of the show. This places Donald Trump's current hold of voters of 17,000,000, just a few million below his best apprentice totals.
RSR ROBBINS leader Hillary Clinton has spent an estimated $18 million on her campaign to date or 62 cents per person support, while Donald Trump has spent an estimated $2 million on his campaign to date or 11.5 cents per person support. Grass root fund raising appears to be more successful than PAC money according to the New York Times.
I am uncertain that Bernie Sanders (despite his soaring popularity) can defeat Hillary Clinton based on these RSR numbers and based more particularly on his lower African American support. He may do well in progressive states but it is doubtful that he will translate in the southern states, where Hillary Clinton will do better. Also, although Bernie Sanders is very popular and has great momentum the prospect that he can beat Hillary question - is not yet satisfactorily answered based on the 'entertainment' question # 2.
I don't believe Donald Trump can be successful in a presidential campaign given that only Caucasian and Asian voters support him above overall ethnic averages. It is one thing to be strong in the Caucasian category of voter support but Mr. Trump's Caucasian total is too top heavy. He has benefited himself greatly through the campaign to date, but hasn't been tested beyond tabloid and gossip. The debates intended to raise the GOP campaign beyond this, but weren't successful.
Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush would seem the best bets for the Republicans given their above average support from Latinos, and opportunity to steal that support away from the Democrats. Latino Voters represent an ethnic Voting group that along with African American Voters provided President Obama with two successive presidential wins.
The Republican Party is not as attractive to American Voters as the Democrat party and needs to find an equivalent footing the next 8 weeks or so or they could see themselves out of the race with little recourse or remedy.
At this 'point in time', we would pick Hillary Clinton to represent the Democrats and to win the Presidency 2016 . The only candidate in either field who currently has a chance to stop Hillary is Bernie Sanders, but he needs both big and early primary wins, and overall more certainty than 'cheer leading' to make himself absolutely viable beyond pretty good support and wishful thinking.
Here are my odds at this point in time of each of the “Saucy Six” presidential win chances. Hillary Clinton even odds. Bernie Sanders 10 to 1. Donald Trump 18 to 1. Marco Rubio 15-1, Jeb Bush 22 to 1. The only caveat would be Donald Trump's new hit television reality show “American Way”
Glen P. Robbins

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